Col J P Singh
3/4th of India’s map now is saffron. Earlier, one saw Buddhist monks in saffron robes here and there but now we see many non-Buddhist saffron monks and more saffron in various events and places. It means BJP surging ahead everywhere. A runaway victory in Tripura and stupendous showing in the far Northeast proves that BJP is no longer a party of Hindi heartland. Sunrise in the East for BJP is sunset for the Congress in the West. Amit Shah’s election machinery is well oiled and is delivering victories. Act East has paid BJP handsomely. Saffronisation of India goes on unabated. Opposition is wary of resurgent saffronisation.
As on today, BJP looks invincible in the contemporary Indian political landscape. Most political commentators and seasoned politicians from the opposition benches believe that Modi will return to power in 2019. Modi also knows it and hence works accordingly. Retaining his invincible image and tough leadership stance, he did not give-in to TDP pressure tactics. For placating allies Congress paid the price. Congress overlooked idiosyncrasies of its allies and itself succumbed to corruption resulting into alarming scams and scandals which led to its ignominious defeat in 2014. BJP thinks it no longer needs to stoop to such low to allies to win an election given Modi’s persisting popularity. Congress apart, even regional parties are not able to withstand BJP resurgence in their backyard. They should be worried like Congress because BJP’s persistent rise is at their expense as well. Saffronisation of Northeast will work as a magnet to draw political rivals and rival parties thus increasing its future prospects. (Three National People Party MLAs in Rajasthan and a Smajwadi Party five times MP have joined BJP post Northeast triumph).
Modi is a vocal proponent of ‘sab ka sath – sab ka vikas’. He talks of development and keeps parroting it. Modi’s slogan of ‘New India’ is all about empowering the nation politically, economically, financially, educationally and militarily. Having clear ideas and ideals and following them with actions is of paramount importance in everyone’s life. Premier Modi has been articulating his ideas and ideals for new and resurgent India almost on daily basis and in his ‘maan ki baat’. We often hear him repeating them. The way Modi’s idea of Swachh Bharat has caught the public imagination is unimaginable. More than six crore toilets built in rural areas, have in particular guaranteed safety and dignity to the women. Swachh Vidyalas with separate toilets for girl students have largely reduced school dropout rates. ‘Beti bachao – beti padhao’ has remarkably changed the pro-infanticide and anti girl child mindset. More than 3 crore LPG connections have made poor women lives smoke free and healthy. Jan-Dhan and Mudra have brought left over 1/3rd Indian population into financial inclusion with entrepreneurial network. Modi led govt has done away with interviews of class iv jobs. Obsolete laws have been repealed. Practice of Triple Talaq has been demolished. Recently announced Health Insurance Scheme (Modi-Care) is a landmark pro-poor initiative. In a strange deviation from the earlier unimaginative governance paradigm, he wishes to transform governance through innovative methods. Media is firmly behind the BJP. Poor and middle class people are feeling part of the system. If piety is a political virtue, then why would voters not vote for a person who is working hard to better their lives. Hence turning saffron may be a matter of pride for the (white) Indians.
Congress ruled over India for six decades despite rising dissatisfaction against it because of the splintered opposition and TINA (there is no alternative) factor. At one time when Janta Party emerged as an alternative, Congress led by Indira Gandhi was defeated. If we look back, there were only two BJP MPs in Lok Sabha during Rajiv Gandhi rule. Despite failed Janta Party experiment, Congress was defeated again when V P Singh emerged as an alternative to Rajiv Gandhi. Thereafter no party had won an absolute majority in a general election. India would continue to have fragmented polity was the national perception. But 2014 Lok Sabha election redefined Indian politics. Modi changed it all. BJP contested 428 seats and won 282. It meant majority at its own plus 10. Important to note was that it won 2 out of 3 seats where it was directly in the fray. When people vote in 2019, they will think whether a credible national alternative to Modi has emerged or not. Mere coalition or formation of a front or 10 Janpath dinner parties will NOT sway the voter away from BJP. There is no tall leader on the other side who can challenge him. TINA remains BJP’s hope.
It seemed that Modi knew nation’s problems and had the solutions thus took various political risks such as demonetisation. More important is that he knew how to exploit the Congress fault-lines such as it is soft on terrorism, softer on minorities, its weak leadership, mired in corruption & dynastic rule and facing stiff opposition from regional parties. Congress has been thriving upon a contract between the family and the party. The contract was, ‘family will bring votes and the party will remain loyal to the family’. Family was not able to bring votes in 2014. The contract failed. It was because of Modi. Now the party is banking upon Rahul Gandhi to get votes. He did deliver in Gujarat even though missed govt formation. He could not deliver in Northeast. Karnataka will be his litmus test. Modi and Amit Shah will exploit Congress fault lines to their best abilities to saffronise the remaining 1/4th India. Thus ‘Congress Mukt Bharat’ is no off the cuff huff.
Today Modi is very popular and BJP unbeatable. Same was Vajpayee at one time. But that is no guarantee of BJP’s return in 2019. Modi led govt will soon complete 4 years rule. Time is ripe to debate BJP’s prospects in 2019. Infact the debate has already begun which raises curiosity and skepticism to what will happen. Its reduced numbers in Gujarat may better be viewed as anti-incumbency which also applies to Modi led govt in Delhi. If BJP wins Karnataka, incumbency factor may get diluted. Soon MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram are going to polls. Their results will have ramifications on 2019. BJP today has a dedicated cadre, an ideology and a leader by which it should sail through these states. (in Bollywood filmi style, BJP can say ‘hamare pass to leader hai’, tumhare pass ….?). BJP’s organisational strength is unmatchable. The party is a restless electoral machine with a professional driver. None should under-estimate the energy, planning and the instruments it will bring into use to win 2019 election.
Modi’s lure for corruption less society, cashless economy, wider tax base to increase revenues for development, infrastructure development to link North with South, East with West & India with Southeast Asia and every place in-between, have no parallels. Modernizing education system, changing work culture and provisioning of world class medical facilities in large swathes of rural India is also classic of Modi led govt. Demonetization, GST and initiatives mentioned above are the secrets of success which Modi is latching on to. No Indian Premier earlier dared to take such initiatives in the past. That I think is key to 2019.
A key observation on Modi led govt is its inability to break an intricate network of politicians, bureaucrats, businessmen, judges, senior lawyers, journalists, social activists and power brokers called ‘deep state’. The deep state controls key levers of power. It is surprising to see that a shrewd politician and hard taskmaster that Modi is, is not able to cut this nexus to size. Consequently banks are being looted and big criminals are being shielded. This dents his zeal and initiatives. To saffronise rest of India Modi must catch the thieves, accelerate economic development and create employment.
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