Lt Col Krishan Chand (Retd)
On 29 June 2014, the world was informed by the ISIS ( Islamic State of Iaq and Syria) that it has metamorphosed in to a Caliphate and that its Jihadist Sunni religious and political leader Abu bakar -al Baghdadi has been chosen the Caliph and has called upon the Muslims all over the world to pledge allegiance to him. Earlier the ISIS led by him that had been in control of a region with Sunni majority in Syria and had been fighting the Syrian forces, collecting taxes, selling goods including fuel and imposing rule by Sharia in the region. It had been operating in concert with another Jihadi group called Al-Nusra and had been part of Al Qaida in Iraq(AQI) but, has since come into its own with Al Nusra and even Mr Aiman -al Jawahiri, the current head of Al Quaida having distanced from it.
The Caliphate (in Arabic ‘Khilafa’) meaning succession, was to be an Islamic State led by the supreme religious and political leader called ‘caliph’ ie successor to Muhammad. Conceptually a Caliphate represents a sovereign polity of entire muslim faithful (Ummah) ruled by a caliph under Islamic Law called ‘Sharia’. In the earliest days, the first Caliphate ( the Rashidun Caliphate) had direct democracy ( Shura) led by Mohammad’s immediate family and disciples. Here it is proper to briefly state that ‘Sunni Islam’ requires the caliph to be elected by Muslims or their representatives. Shias however believe that the Caliph should be an Imam chosen by Allah from among Mohammad’s descendents. There have been many Caliphates starting from the first established at Madina, but the most notable among them we were the ‘Ummayid’ and ‘Ottoman’. The only existing caliphate other than Baghdadi’s ha s been the ‘Ahamadiya caliphate based in London. The ‘Ottomon’ Caliphate was abolished by Kemal Pasha Attaturk in 1924 after its defeat by the allied forces.
Abu Bakar-al-Baghdadi’s Caliphate ultimately desires to rule over all Sunni areas around Iraq, Syria, parts of Jordon, Israel, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, Kurdistan and Cyprus. The most immediate cause for support and establishment of the Caliphate has been the discrimination meted out to the Sunnies in Iraq by the Shia majority Govt of Iraq led by Prime Minister Mr Nur Ul Maliki. Caliphate’s predecessor ISIS, emerged from AQI with support from Jihadist groups from Syria, Al Qaida led by Aiman Al Jawahiri, Saudi Arabia and few other sunni regimes. From 2004 when it was called AQI led by Musab-al Zarqabi to June 2014 the Jihadist Sunnies have grown in strength from 2500 to over 10000 highly trained and motivated urban guerrilla fighters who’re now flush with finances (over $ 429 million looted from banks, $2 billion reportedly gotten from other banks, businesses, oil sales, extortions and contributions from Saudi Arabia and many others. They’re also now well equipped with state of the art US origin weapons looted from the fleeing Iraqi forces and dumps in the controlled areas and these include aircraft, helicopters, tanks, armed fighting vehicles, artillery guns, missiles, machine guns, bombs, shells, clothing, equipment et al and are therefore now a formidable force spreading alarm and terror not only in Iraq and the region around, but in the whole world including the USA.
Let us now see what the budding caliphate portends for the Sunni and other Muslim sects and the rest of the world. Despite the endemic demands for Islamic Sharia rule in Sunni Muslim countries, hardly any existing govt is following the true version and even the Saudi Arabian version is Wahabi one based on dynastic rule and not by the elected caliph and so there are alarm bells sounding in all these regimes who in the unlikely event of the caliphate emerging powerful and popular can cause turmoil and change in polity in all countries. As regards other smaller sects, it portends a mortal danger. To the rest of the world it revives the scares of Al Qaida with added state authority over the Muslim Ummah. Let us now consider the prospects of the budding caliphate’s survival in its infancy.
As I write, there is battle raging in Tikrit to drive out the caliphate’s Jihdi forces, and, the govt forces with help of drones, fighter bombers, helicopters etc seem to have an upper hand. Tikrit now is a largely empty ghost town (majority Sunni and home town of late President Saddam Hussain) and therefore the Jihadists, being skilled battle hardened, well equipped motivated fighters are likely to prove a tough nut to crack, but the emptiness of the town also gives advantage to the fighter bombers and drones to engage the Jihadists with abandon without fear of collateral human casualties. The Iraqi forces also have been bolstered by Shia Militias, Iran, US advisors and intelligence assets of US, Iran, Turkey, Kurds, Russia and many others who perceive the budding caliphate a common threat. How the battle’ll oscillate in the coming days is difficult to guess, but I’ve no doubt that the Iraqi forces will prevail. The world just can’t have it otherwise. The caliphate forces also lack pilots and other sophisticated target acquisition and tracking equipment and their high morale, fighting skills are unlikely to sustain in all out offensives foreseen in coming days and months. With a reverse or two what support they have now is likely to begin drying up.
The Muslim Sunni countries are in varying states of internal unrest ( Afghanistan, Pakistan, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, Morrocco, Mali, Somaia, Yemen) and can ill afford to provide any encouragement to the budding caliphate. As a matter of fact they’ve every reason to be fearful of it and are likely to cooperate in snuffing it out. The Muslim Ummah has also come a long way off from the medieval tenets of Sunni Islamic Sharia based rule by a religious and political head and have become moderate, enlightened and freedom loving. Muslim women also dread a regressive medieval fundamentalist Islam.
In my view, despite the excellent fighting skills, organisation, meticulous planning, high motivation, surfeit of funds, political support from some countries and organisations, and rather poor showing by Iraqi forces and govt so far, the budding regime has just too much stacked against it and is doomed to destruction. The world just can’t afford to let them prevail. The oil and welfare of those stranded in Iraq at present appears incidental to the bigger stakes.
Trending Now
E-Paper
Follow our WhatsApp channel