K B Jandial
A week after the results of the widely acclaimed historic elections to the J&K Assembly were announced there is no significant headway in Government formation with potential coalition partners appear to be sticking to their ideological and political standpoint. The political wizards of each stakeholder are putting their head together to ensure how best they can convert the messy situation arising out of the fractured mandate to their advantage by imposing their manifesto on other. To cap it further the aggressive panel discussions of national TV channels have upped the ante of acrimonious ‘tu tu main main’ with some potential ally becoming defensive. Social media is even worse with text messages painfully bringing in open regional and communal polarization. Apart from diametrically opposite ideology, there is strong undercurrent forJammu CM or rotational CM. This all has hardened the stakeholders’ stance making the Government formation more complex.
Straight Talk
The elections that have been lauded as the fairest and hugely participative, have thrown up results that portrayed the regional and ideological divide. The mandate may be muddled but not without clear messages. One may like it or not but the fact is that the long unaddressed feelings of regionalism coupled with some element of communalism have dominated the electoral outcome. These results have thrown a serious challenge to the politicians who are expected to a call by showing their political maturity and sagacity to respect regional mandate which is a harsh reality of the State.
The three distinct regions of Ladakh, Kashmir and Jammu have given almost diverse verdict. While Jammu and Ladakh have given clear but opposite mandate to BJP and Congress respectively, Kashmir’s verdict is multiple fractured with PDP getting 25 of 46 seats, just more than 50 % seats. The ruling coalition which fought the elections separately despite remaining in the Govt. till last date, managed to bag 16 seats, NC got 12 and Congress four, the later improving its position from three. The BJP failed to open its account in the Valley as the Modi wave like the monsoon could not cross the Pir Panjal range despite massive efforts and investment.But its gains cannot be overlooked. It is for the first time that BJP got 34 candidates in Kashmir, mostly Muslims,to seriously fight election on ‘lotus’ symbol and one of them, Moti Koul even saved his security deposits in Habakadal constituency. With 2596 votes he is placed at the second position pushing PDP to third slot. He succeeded in getting some local Muslim votes as well. Interestingly, some of the Muslim BJP candidates also got votes in thousands, surprising many as it speaks for growing acceptability of BJP vicious campaign on”hind-utva and ghar-waspsi” by the rivals notwithstanding. Notable among them are 3892 votes in Devsar,3384 in Shopian,2945 in Tral,2635 in Hazratbal,2275 in Shangus and 2019 in Pampore constituency. Even the BJP electioneering was intense with no fear, hostility or untoward incident.
In term of share of popular votes in Kashmir, PDP got the lion’s share of 7.63 lakh votes relegating its arch rival and Kashmir’s grand old party, NC, to second position with 6.01 lakh votes. Despite huge anti-incumbency the Congress is contended with 2.68 lakh votes. People’s Conference, BJP’s undeclared ally, secured 93182 votes opening its account with two seats. The BJP ranked at 5th with 45709 votes which for its consolation is the highest ever votes in the Valley. The unannounced PC- BJP “alliance” secured substantial 138891 votes. The victory of PC is important as the NC has left no stone unturned to corner Sajjad Lone, one time separatist, by dubbing him as “bhai” of Modi.
NC which once had a complete sway over Kashmir with respectable presence in other two regions, lost its substantial ground to PDP in the Valley, to Congress in Ladakh and to BJP in Jammu. It however, managed to check Modi wave in Jammu’s Hindu heartland by winning two seats but the victory of Devender Singh Rana in Nagrota and Kamal Verma in Bishnah is considered more of their personal influence than the party. But still the victory is remarkable when one sees the total rout of Congress in Hindu belt due to ‘Modi-tsunami’.
Modi continued to have grounds well support in Jammu region which helped in returning highest ever number of 25BJP candidates to the Assembly. BJP had given mandate to many Muslim candidates, not in Kashmir but also in Jammu and one of them, Abdul Gani Kohli won from Hindu majority Kalakote. This victory would be a strong weapon in its armory to blunt the frequent criticism of being ‘communal’. BJP has also changed its complexion by managing victory of three Hindu candidates from Muslim majority segments of Doda and Kishtwar districts.
Unlike Kashmir, BJP is the undisputed voice of Jammu region by capturing its two third seats with 10.35 lakh leaving Congress far behind with only 5.92 lakh votes. Congress which always has strong base in Hindu belt also, lost its space to BJP. None of its Hindu candidates could succeed in Jammu for the first time. NC got 3.89 lakh votes while PDP vote share was 3.24lakh.
The mandate of the people, how so ever fractured it may be, needs to be accepted and respected. It calls for matured and statesmen like handling of the post electoral scenario. The parties may cobble up numbers to reach the magic figure of 44 but the moot point is that whether the parties that got mandate in each region are getting isolated on the pretext of “unholy alliance”. Any such combination cobbled up on ideological affinity, would be fraught with dangers in this sensitive border State torn apart by cross-border militancy. The parties coming together to form Government need not be constrained by their manifestoes which is hardly read, discussed and voted for by the electorate. The only common pro-people agenda which is the major factor for the “vote for change” is the good governance and justice to all regions.
It is not in dispute that BJP in Jammu and PDP in Kashmir have got the people’s trust and they are the “and authorized partners” to run a stable and truly representative Govt. The two other important parties- NC & Congress too are in the race with the former offering support to its arch rival for its”regional identity”agenda and the latter toying up idea of grand alliance to keep the “communal” BJP out of the Government. Going by the numbers, different options (PDP+NC+ CPI+ PDF+Inds= 47, PDP+NC+Congress =54 & BJP+NC+PC+Inds=44),are possible. All these combinations are possible but which one would be in tune with the mandate for change and could be stable? Isolating BJP would be putting Jammu against Kashmir! Such option would fuel demand for trifurcation of the State.
For BJP also, it is equally important to understand realities and desist from making Jammu versus Kashmir. Its alliance with either of the Kashmir -centric party has to be based on Common Minimum Programme and “contentious” issues like Article 370 have to be kept aside, merit and demerit of the issue notwithstanding. Both principal regions have to play complementary role in addressing problems of the people in all regions including Ladakh which too cannot be ignored for its less number of representatives. Aharmonious methodology was adopted when NDA was formed with coalition of about two dozen parties under Atal Behari Vajpayee which ruledIndia for more than six years without any problem. BJP is no longer politically untouchable. Moreover, both the Kashmir-centric regional parties have worked comfortably with BJP led NDA Govt. in the past, in fact NC was a part of it. NDA is again at the Centre and J&K needs liberal economic help for steering it out of mess which would be easy with BJP in the Govt.
It is appropriate to leave the matters of security and fight against militancy to the security agencies and the Army in view of the renewed threats from Taliban and ISIS in the region. It would be fruitless to again politicalize AFSPA which can be made irrelevant by better coordination at State and national levels rather than forcing its scrapping for political gain of one partner. If one party has mandate for its scrapping the otherregion has the opposite concern.
Issue of Chief Ministership is another possible impediment in BJP alliance with Kashmir based parties. It should also be handled cautiously as it involves sensitivity in both regions. Admittedly, there is absolutely no bar, constitutionally or otherwise, on anyone becoming CM having majority in the Assembly but sensitivity of the Kashmir must not be overlooked. It needs to be kept in mind that J&K is the only Muslim majority State of the country which negated the two-nation theory by acceding to India.No one should make it a prestige issue for one region or the other. It has potential to serve as a fodder for the separatists and their mentor Pakistan which stood marginalized in the elections and are now desperately looking for opportunity to exploit situation for further alienation of Kashmiris. Let no such opportunity is provided that would negate the gains of elections.
On the contrary, BJP should start building up on the gains of the elections and Modi’s initiatives on good governance to make further “inroads” in the Valley and this can be possible only if their sensitivities are respected. Apprehensions of ordinary Kashmiri Muslims attached with BJP needs to be allayed first which in itself is an uphill task. Mufti Mohd Sayeed is far more senior and matured leader to be doubted for sacrificing Jammu or Ladakh interests for Kashmir. Then a strong BJP in the Govt. and in the Assembly itself serves as deterrent for any possible misadventure.
Jammu can play a role in giving equal treatment for all regions. The perpetual feeling of discrimination in Jammu and Ladakh and they being playing second fiddle to Kashmir needed to be addressed by just and equitable distribution of resources for development and proportionate share of Govt. jobs including in Secretariat. Such issue should be the focus of BJP on possibly joining the Govt.
Good governance is panacea of people’s resentment against Government and the political matters like dialogue with Pakistan cannot be a substitute for it. Dialogue is largely dependent on Pakistan’s behaviour and actions and no Govt. much less the Modi Govt. is expected to pursue dialogue in an unfriendly atmosphere of continuous terrorists’ attacks, frequent firing on our border areas, pushing fidayeen in our areas, hate speeches by known terrorist leaders in Pakistan etc. No political outfit has any control over Pakistan’ leadership and its military and thus making such pre-conditions in Govt.formation are hardly desirable.
Governor Vohra has invited PDP and BJP on New Year day to discuss possibilities of formation of new Govt. Even though the life of the current Assembly is upto 19thJanuary the matter needs to be clinched fast either way by working out the CMP without raising public sentiments and expectations on the contentious issues. Delay at times is counter productive. Respecting the mandate is essential for strengthening the unity of the State.(feedback: kbjandial@gmail.com)
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