Dr Sudershan Kumar
Showcasing of the military might by India at Rajpath this year on 26th January was accompanied by a momentous event. This year’s parade had even more grandeur with immense implications where 10 heads of ASEAN countries viz. Myanmar, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei, Laos, Cambodia graced it insinuating India’s foreign policy shift. These head of the states had arrived in India to participate and commemorate in ASEAN India summit scheduled on 25th January 2018 at New Delhi. This summit marks 25 years of dialogue partnership, 15 years of summit level partnership and five years of strategic partnership between two entities. The theme of the summit was “Shared value of Common Destiny”. Significantly, it was for the second time that the special session was held in a country, who is not even a member of that group.
This fact asserts and underlines that India and ASEAN nations share cultural and civilizational roots. Besides their interests are also convergent. It can be viewed as a tribute towards deepening relationship between India and each of ten countries of ASEAN Block and also cognizance of India’s “ACT EAST POLICY”, a reciprocation of Chinese CPEC. Towards attaining this, impetus has to be laid on a plethora of regions. First and foremost being fortifying transport connectivity between India and 10 ASEAN countries in terms of roads, rail link and port facilities, which are too meager. Towards ameliorating this, Government of India has undertaken a Kaladan multi modal transit and transport project. This project will conjoin Indian seaport of Kolkata with Sittwe sea port in Rakhine state, Myanmar by sea. This will be further extended to Mizoram. On consummation, this will revolutionize the trade between India and Myanmar. Moreover secondly, institutional connectivity for harmonizing trade investments and financial policies is imperative. It is heartening to note that the paucity of institutional infrastructure has ensued towards under utilization of energy resources available in South East Asia especially in Myanmar where vast natural reserves of hydro power exist. Thirdly, India shares a long history of people to people connectivity between South East countries particularly Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, where still large number of Indians live. Even though India and ASEAN countries do witness commutation of students, farming communities, media personnel and business community between them yet movement of labourers and professionals is still contained. However not withstanding these barriers, trade between India and these ASEAN countries is creating head ways steadily. Statistical data reveals that India’s trade between these countries has increased from 65 billion US dollars in 2015 – 2016 to 70 billion US dollars in 2016-2017 and export has grown from 25 billion US dollars to 31.07 billion in the year 2016-2017.The above facts do ascertain that this outreach towards ASEAN countries symbolizes India’ answer to China’s “String of Pearl Strategy” against India.
As is a well acquainted fact about string of pearls, it is a network of military and commercial infrastructure developed by China in countries falling on Indian ocean between China’s main land and port of Sudan and considers it as a facilitator towards it’s vision of becoming a global manufacturing hub. There have been multiple deliberations on this and Act East Policy has been viewed as an answer to China’s doctrine of String of Pearls. Furthermore, Chinese goods are required to be imported to Middle East, third world countries, South Africa and Europe to sustain its growing economy. This also echoes it’s nefarious and expansionists designs to trap the tiny nations by offering huge loan on the pretext of building infrastructure. Also the construction of CPEC, and subsequently it’s conversion to OBOR is a major stride by China to fulfill its long cherished vision. Although China has tried to encircle Japan and other US allies but Indian authorities are more perturbed about China’s presence in South Asia especially in Indian ocean which may have repercussions at the time of conflict with China. Another strategic point where China is trying to have dominance is Malacca Strait. Through this route China imports nearly 80 percent of energy needs from Middle East countries.
Malacca strait is strategically of paramount importance for India and traditionally India holds dominance over Malacca strait but China has also established friendly relations with countries which surround Malacca Strait. Besides, China has also set up a naval base on Cocos(Keeling) Islands for monitoring Indian naval activity. These islands have been the distant part of Australia.
Besides, China’s wealth, strong military might, its stewardship, maneuvering capabilities and assertiveness has further created wobbly and unstable conditions in Asia. To contain China’s influence, Indian Government will have to ponder and envision much more than Act East Policy.
To effectuate this, first and foremost we need to invigorate our relations with China’s South East neighbour countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Philippines,who are facing the brunt of China’s assertiveness on the disputed south china sea. Although Government of India has signed many agreements and MOU with Japan yet still the road is quite long. Besides Government of India should commence with dauntless and innovative initiatives to cement its relations with its neighbours, otherwise difficult times are ahead.
Secondly, to counter assertiveness of China, India will have to evolve a strategy to strengthen its military, by developing its own state of art advance defence systems. Till the time it is done, India must look for other options including allying with countries who have strategic interest in South China sea.
Third, India is conducting joint military exercises regularly with USA, Japan at Malabar in Indian ocean. Similar set of exercises will have to be planned in South China sea by including Australia also. This may act as deterrence for China.
Fourthly and significantly, to counter China’s OBOR policy, alternative trade routes need to be explored. Asia’s quad is a step in this direction. This concept where India Australia, Japan and United States are consolidating to counter China was mooted by Japanese Prime Minister in 2008 but was lost its direction. But it has again gained grounds after Donald Trump took over the reigns of America. Besides, India’ initiative to connect to middle countries and Europe through Chabahar port of Iran Afghanistan and Russia is noteworthy too.
The author is of the view that Indian government should examine all these aspects and pursue them more rigorously through proactive and bold approach.
(The author is former Director General DRDO)
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