Vishal Sharma
Bhartiya Janta Party ( BJP) has set for itself an ambitious target of 44+ assembly seats in the ensuing elections in J&K. The race for 44+ majority in the State assembly is modeled on the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s famous 272+ poll pitch in the just concluded Lok Sabha elections. Both the poll pitches ride on unbridled ambition. But that is where the similarity ends.
Modi’s success was indeed spectacular. But his campaign had followed a different trajectory. It was fuelled by hopes and aspirations of a country that had seen them progressively atrophied over the course of a decade. His pitch was also built on the template of proven achievements in a state. His repeated invocations that given a chance he would scale up the Gujarat model at the national level liberated the political discourse from the abysmal ‘normal’ typified by the UPA’s failures and lack of alternatives.
Where’s the comparison? Is the BJP second best alternative electorally in the state? Has it ever been? Does it have a pan state presence? Does it have any proven track record of governance or a proper opposition for that matter? What is it on offer from its side that can potentially tickle the fancy of the electorate?
BJP’s base is only in Jammu division. And it has been for all of its life. This is to do with the denominational and ethnic reasons. If it had revisited its ideological moorings, it would perhaps have grown out of its traditional base. Instead, it has chosen to remain closeted in the frozen chambers of an outdated ideology. Hence, it remains where it is. Stuck in sands even as sands themselves shift with time and circumstances.
It has had its share of glory as well. But this joy ride has been on the whipped up emotions of a crazed electorate. The recent example is its victory at the hustings in the immediate aftermath of the Shri Amarnath land row. It landed a purchase well beyond its expectations. But when came the day of reckoning later to walk the talk, its high decibel ideological noise of the land row days meekly gave way to the inane stupor immediately after.
No one knows what came about during and after the frenzied exchanges amongst those affected during and after the row. Ironically, perhaps, not even the BJP, which bore the flag of the agitation in the garb of its doctrinal mutant-‘Sangarsh Samiti’. It had a faint idea of what it had set out to achieve anyway. Its eyes had lit up at the sight of the steam of protests that had begun to gather; and it positioned itself ahead of it. The outcome and the messaging were treated as incidentals; best devised and manipulated under the diktats of the circumstances. No outcome was achieved for its goal posts kept changing; no message came out for none was ever intended.
Nothing exemplifies its subterfuge more than what was on view during cross voting by its members for election of legislators to the Council. Till today no one knows who were actually involved in it. After much prevarication, an effort was made to hold an inquiry; pronounce a few culpable; sack them and be done with it. The effort, more than anything, bore the stamp of intent to offload the baggage quickly, lest it should become an albatross around its neck. There was no attempt at enduring institutional disinfection. Once again, instead of rewriting the script, it chose, as has been its wont, to rehash it and sell it. This time, though, it appears the muck, unlike in the past, has stuck with it.
The trouble with keeping discourses that impact peoples’ lives relevant is that they need to be constantly reinvented. Dull and drab ones quickly cease to be rallying points. BJP’s failing in the state is that its discourse is horribly out of step with the times it is in. What’s worse those who helm it would have us believe that this is what ticks; and will, in the long run, too. Those, who have warped this discourse beyond correction and in the process hit at the warp and woof of the organization, would have us believe that they can cross 44+ mark. Perhaps, they still believe that their profane article of faith will cause another leap of faith amongst its faithfuls. In doing so, they trust not their intrinsic strength of which the less said the better; but the certitude of the gullibility of the led, alas.
Look at their perfidious maths behind the 44+ mark. They expect a complete sweep in Jammu region and a mild harvest of 5- 6 seats in Kashmir. And what’s the basis of it? Well, simmering anti-congress pitch in Jammu and a strong desire for change in Kashmir. The reasoning may not entirely be off the mark. But in our complex local setting, this reasoning has been taken a little too far. For, quite simply, how and why would loss of a particular party translate into a gain for BJP? What’s it done to assume it will be so? One view is that the victory at the centre has created enough tailwinds for its ambitions to skyrocket; the chinwag is: people desert the sinking ships just as quickly as they grab an opportunity to jump onto a bandwagon of victors; this is how we are as people. Will this expectancy actualize? My sense is it will not. It never will.
It may partially. But that would require chopping off the deadwood that is a throwback to the times of deceit and deception. Its present crop of helmsmen has to be eased out and replaced with the new one; one that is not burdened with the baggage of all that characterizes the existing one; one who are not ideologues of the exclusivist kind, but have affinity for an ideology of change and hope and aspirations; one who are not old; effete and have antediluvian mindset, but one who are young; resolute and progressive; one who are not self righteous and self centred, but one who make the wider cause subservient to their personal ones.
Such massive ambition, however, needs to be backed with an honest intent and effort. In a larger sense, BJP needs to craft a more sophisticated response to the challenges confronting it. The contemptuous rejection of a leadership haul and pathological disdain for a new and innovative approach will reduce its chances of even being a player. While even a marginal foray in Kashmir is a wishful thinking, it is in with a chance of improving its tally in Jammu if it could simply reset its organizational and ideological pieces on the political chessboard. With the current leadership bandwidth and the anxieties that guide their worldview, it can only reject the inevitable change, and not deal with it, and, therefore, retreat into a reality that exists, but only for it.
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