Men, Matters & Memories
M L Kotru
One doesn’t have to be a prophet to predict the re-emergence of the Taliban in a post-American scenario in Afghanistan as a power to reckon with, even as a partner initially in the Hamid Karzai’s dispensation. Yes, the US-propped Afghan President has himself projected it as a clear possibility. In fact he is on record recognizing the Taliban as an essential partner in any future arrangement. He has been in formal and informal negotiations with them and the initiative was appreciated including at the Paris meeting weeks ago in which Karzai and Taliban representatives participated.
The move, as was evident at the time, has International blessings, including those of the Americans. Karzai who once promised to fight the enemies of his regime has since reconciled himself to the reality that he cannot wish away the Taliban, who in the infancy of their movement, received training in Pakistani madrassas and ISI-supervised training camps.
And, the ISI influence has been a constant as the Taliban took on the combined might of the US, its allies and the Government in Kabul. With the Americans choosing to get out of the beleaguered country sometime in 2014 Karzai, even as he pledged to maintain the country’s integrity, has wooed the Taliban. This at a time when the Taliban had continued to strike at will in any part of the war-ravaged country.
Both Karzai and the ISI-guided Taliban leadership consequently decided to bury the hatchet in the “larger interests” of a “stable” Afghanistan. Efforts to achieve it have never ceased ever since. The Americans too appeared willing to buy the truce line, proof of which came in the shape of the Paris meeting between the Afghan leaders representing Kabul and the Taliban.
But even as the Afghan Taliban may have reason to look forward to power-sharing, at least initially, with Karzai and others of his ilk, a big question mark hangs over the future of the Tehreek-i-Taliban of Pakistan, a movement which theoretically at least took to terror to baulk the Americans operating along the Pak-Afghan border and the aerial bombing by the US of tribal’s living on the Pak side of the dividing line.
It’s another matter that their fundamentalist Islamic zeal led the Pak Taliban to killing the very people whom they had sought to protect. The Pak Taliban has thrived in the north western region of the country, making gruesome forays into urban centres in and around the frontier belt.
The manner in which the Pakistani 15-year-old girl, Malala was shot at, virtually knocking off a part of her skull, has continued to shock the world; her fault was that she wanted the girls in Swat, her home, to be allowed to study, a thing unacceptable to the Taliban.
The Pakistan Army too fell in line with the Pak Taliban after the US persisted with the aerial bombing of terrorist hideouts along the border; the Army in fact blocked for months the right of passage to American convoys carrying supplies for US forces via Pakistan to Afghanistan. The bond with the Pak Taliban was thus sealed, though, never officially admitted; the Army it was argued was protesting against targeting of civilians along the border by US Drone pilot-less bombers.
To come to the point, the Pakistani Talibans’ refusal to join an all-party meeting prior to the country going to the polls, must be seen against the backdrop of its subsequent statement that their ‘tehreek’ did not trust political parties; it would only talk to the Army. While clearly showing disdain for political parties the Taliban thus revealed their belief in the Army as the real power centre in the country.
May be it is the Pakistani Taliban’s way of offering a quid pro quo to the Army for it to have ceased operations against them in the tribal areas. And, a ‘thank you’, if you will, for the help the ISI has rendered to the extremist Islamic outfits including, of course, the Taliban movement ever since its inception under the one-eyed Mullah Umar’s stewardship, from the days when Umar underwent training in a Karachi terror centre and seminary, before taking over the leadership in Afghanistan. The mullah played a major role in helping the ISI to build up its apparatus in that country when he briefly headed the Government in Kabul, prior to the American intervention.
The Army’s silence on issues arising out of the Taliban posturing in its favour opens up a whole lot of possibilities even as the political parties prepare for the polls. With the judiciary already on the war path with the Executive, Pakistan’s latest experiment with democracy looks in grave jeopardy; I say this knowing that the Army, Kayani’s oft-repeated denials notwithstanding, appears to be waiting in the wings as it were. With the ever increasing sectarian “warfare” also showing no signs of abatement – the Shias are at the receiving end for the present – and the Taliban having declared their intent, democracy in Pakistan is under grave threat.
I shudder to think of the implications of Gen. Perves Musharraf’s apparent decision to return to the country which he fled after 8 years as the military dictator. Musharraf who has lived in voluntary exile ever since his ouster four years ago declared his return in a TV broadcast from Dubai claiming that his hat would be right there in the middle of the election ring. Curiously, he mentioned that he had the organizational ability to make it! How? I don’t know. I for one would be surprised if Gen. Kayani offers support to him.
Musharraf’s presence in the fray would add to the strength of regressive forces like the Taliban; he has several cases pending against him and is high on the hit-list of the Taliban and other right wing outfits for his “role” in the attack on Islamabad’s Lal Masjid and the madrassa attached to it.
Which leads me back to the Army. Regardless of Kayani’s professions to the contrary, it stands to reason if the military, with the blessings of the judiciary led by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Justice Iftikhar Chowdhry, who has described the Army as a genuine asset, takes over as military dictator, an “interim” measure like all past military interventions in the country.
Gen. Kayani who was granted an additional term last year could very well don civilian garb, if required, by opting for a quicker exit as the Army Chief which would certainly please his successor.
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