Anil Anand
The one sure conclusion of the Congress’s victory in the three politically important states of Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan combined with Uttar Pradesh, is that the Hindi heartland would surely be the theatre of action in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The results have given Congress a re-entry into the area at the same time raising questions on the much touted invincibility factor of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
This is certainly not to suggest that the Congress is on a comeback trail or that the Modi magic has all but vanished or in the process of vanishing before May-2019 Lok Sabha elections. But the Congress victory has certainly kick-started the two processes simultaneously. Although ideologically as different as chalk and cheese but a common denominator links Congress and BJP which could make or mar their prospects in the general elections. It is the political alliances or to be more precise identifying, attracting and effectively managing the allies particularly the regional ones.
Both, of late, have been facing ally problems sometimes similar but mostly of different nature. The difference, of course, is on account of the fact that BJP is a strong party ruling both at the Centre and in majority of the states and is almost running roughshod on its allies mostly regional parties. And that the Congress despite being a premier opposition party with an experience of running the United Progressive Alliance aka UPA Government for 10 years, finding it hard to make itself acceptable to the other opposition parties for forging an alliance under its umbrella.
The victories, despite humiliating defeats in Telengana and far-off Manipur, certainly give a greater advantage to Congress vis-a-vis its current and prospective allies as the over-a-century old party’s level of acceptability as a senior partner of some consequence, have now increased. How does one explain the suo motu decision of the hitherto defiant BSP supremo Mayawati to offer support to Congress? She offered the support to Congress not only in Madhya Pradesh where it has emerged as the single largest party but also in Rajasthan where the party has majority on its own on the plea to keep BJP out of power and despite having serious differences with Congress’ ideology and policies.
At the same time Trinmool Congress president and West Bengal chief minister Mamta Banerjee, who like Mayawati had been nurturing dreams of a bigger role on the national stage, lost no time in describing the election results as a “real democratic indication of the final match in 2019 and that she had no problem working with Congress as she had not only worked with party earlier on but also have good relations with its top brass particularly Sonia Gandhi.
Nothing as yet has been heard from Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav on the Congress’ victory in key states despite the fact he claims a close friendly relation with Congress chief Rahul Gandhi. His silence is though intriguing but it in no way suggests that he would remain averse to aligning with Congress as after all Samajwadi Party has also offered support of its lone MLA in Madhya Pradesh. Since both Mayawati and Akhilesh have been working in tandem in Uttar Pradesh, it would be naive to even think that they took decision to offer support to Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan without sparing a thought as to how it would unfold for ‘mahaghatbandhan’ efforts.
The Congress victories in Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan that account for 65 Lok Sabha constituencies with almost negligible presence of SP and BSP will definitely increase the party’s bargaining power in the Hindi heartland. The SP-BSP combine has been till now flexing muscles by dint of their strength in Uttar Pradesh with 80 Lok Sabha seats and the majority of which were won by BJP in 2014 elections with Maywati (BSP) drawing a nil, to the extent of taunting and at times dictating Congress for the party’s invisibility in the state. The prospects of SP-BSP-Congress combine, in the aftermath of Congress victories, checkmating Modi-juggernaut in these four states can be an attractive proposal for the three parties to mutually agree and accept each other.
It would be easier said than done unless Congress, which aspired to be the umbrella of the new alliance, reaches out to its allies even beyond Hindi heartland with the same verve and magnanimity as was done during the time of UPA formation with Sonia Gandhi at the helm. That alone would not suffice unless the regional satraps wishing to be part of the alliance against BJP respond in equal terms as after all it needs two to tango and in this case more than two to do so.
Of course, existential and domain issues would always cast shadows on any deliberations to forge an alliance at the national levels. These could only be overcome if the interested parties fix their attentions on a broader goal and that is to face BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. If they could ensure distribution of seats on the basis of strength of the political parties in their respective areas and Congress’ pan-India presence, much of the disputes could be prevented from happening. The spirit of sacrifice for achieving the broader goal would be the key to success.
If offer of support by Mayawati and Akhilesh reflect change in their behaviour, a similar reflection could also be gauged in the manner in which Rahul Gandhi showed his humble approach towards even his arch rival the BJP. His laudatory references to the outgoing BJP chief ministers’ contribution in Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and strong reference that together with like-minded parties they would defeat the BJP also reflects an attitudinal shift.
The BJP had won 59 out of the 65 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in 2014. As it was difficult for the party to retain this number not to talk of increasing the tally but post their defeat in these states the chances of losing a considerable number of seats are more now than ever before. It could be prevented only if Narendra Modi’s mesmerising effect continued to rule the public mind and its erosion minimised by his Government’s policies in the next few months before the elections. In the similar vein the BJP would also be required to control its mindless aggression and boastful attitude keeping in mind that these factors have no place in a democratic polity, and at the same time stay focused on the developmental agenda with Modi as its mascot.
The bigger challenge for Modi and BJP, other than ensuring a strong National Democratic Alliance (NDA), would be to control the contradictions and fringe elements of the Sangh Parivar which, post BJP’s defeat in this round of polls, have already started talking about the need to address the core issues such as building Ram Temple, abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution that give special status to Jammu and Kashmir etc. Given the penchant of Modi-Amit Shah combine for stridency and Hindutava agenda which has already overshadowed Prime Minister’s ‘sab ka saath sab ka vikas’ motto, they would do better to ward off any pressure to change tracks.
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