Harihar Swarup
The occasion was Jawaharlal Nehru’s 125th birth anniversary. To celebrate the event the Congress leadership had invited a wide range of secular parties and their leaders. Among them were ebullient Mamata Banerjee and her bête noir Left Party leaders. The Left and Trinamool Congress have been life-long adversaries. Also among thnvitees were Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar; they sent their representatives instead of attending the conclave personally. The JDU leader, Sharad Yadav, besides spokesman of the NCP were also present.
The talk among them centered around the dominance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a rising BJP, winning election after election. Heard in Vigyan Bhavan where conclave was held. Mamata to Sitaram Yechuri (in Bangla): We have to stop the BJP. What you people are doing?
Yechuri: Bengal is in your hands. What are you doing (to stop the BJP)? The Chief Minister had no immediate reply. She kept quiet.
The fact is that Mamata’s call for a secular front to fight communal forces misread the 2014 mandate where it was Modi’s campaign pitch for governance and promise of prosperity that drew young voters, not a preference for the politics of Hindutva.
At a time when voters have been demanding quality of life and dynamic government above all, the secular-communal rhetoric seems outdated. Simply claiming to be secular can hardly be a substitute for lack of a governance model. Today secular forces refuse to acknowledge how dramatically the Indian voter is changing. Politics does indeed make strange bed-fellows. But without a positive agenda, the call for a secular front is nothing but short-sighted politics that not only harks back to discredited version of secularism but also does grave injustice to the legacy of Nehru.
Can these disparate parties form an alliance to check a rising BJP with the Congress leading them? The Congress, on its part, has been has oscillated between the doctrine of ‘Ekla chalo re’ and reluctant alliance builder. It remains to be seen whether it has the will or energy to craft a rational and credible alliance.
Can Left parties and Mamata come on one platform to oppose the BJP? Any alliance between them is bound to be seen as wholly opportunistic. However, the alliance between RJD’s Lalu Prasad and JUD’s Nitish Kumar in Bihar ahead of remaining assembly polls does not look opportunistic. Their differences in the past notwithstanding, Lalu and Nitish come from similar background; both have emerged from Jayapralash Narayan’s movement; they were at one time friends and belonged to the same party. An alliance between the Left and Mamata may look impractical but revival of ties between Lalu and Nitish is possible.
In the past few months, there have been multiple attempts by some leaders of various Janata parties to become united either through a merger of their parties or by simply forming an alliance against the BJP. These attempts are driven only out of a fear of getting swept away by a ‘Modi wave’ when other assembly elections are held. After winning the 2014 Lok Sabha elections with a majority on its own, the BJP has managed to obtain a majority in Haryana, and emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra. It is true some of these leaders played crucial role in forming an alliance against the Congress in 1977 and then again in 1989, but the idea of forming a similar alliance against the BJP at the moment seems misplaced. Neither do these leaders remain as popular or credible as they were when they were younger; nor does their party high command similar support among voters.
The first sign of the plan to form an alliance came to the fore when leaders such as Janata Dal (Secular) President H D Deve Gowda, Rashtriya Lok Dal Chief Ajit Singh, former Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Janata Dal (United) leader Sharad Yadav and Samajwadi party leader Shivpal Singh Yadav shared the stage at a rally in Meerut. There was another meeting in Delhi early this month which was attended by Lalu Prasad, Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Deve Gowda and Mulayam Singh Yadav. But even after two meetings, there seems to be a lack of consensus over the future course of action.
If these leaders feel they can create same euphoria which they managed to generate in 1977 and 1989, they seem to have failed to read to 2014 verdict correctly. Having experienced governments led by most of these leaders over the last two decades, people don’t seem to have the same faith in them as they had during Janata experiment or during the 1989 V P Singh wave. All these leaders are popular individually in their respective states, but it may be extremely difficult for them to come to an understanding over who would lead this front. The voters may wonder if these leaders would be able to provide a stable government or if they would just be fighting among themselves.
Facing corruption charges and accusation of poor track records, most of these leaders would not be able to appeal to voters outside respective states. Currently, the combined national popularity of major leaders of the Janata Parivar is only a fraction of the individual popularity of Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi. (IPA)
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