Col J P Singh, Retd
After the sad demise of Mufti Sahib, PDP president Mehboba Mufti’s coronation as alliance Chief Minister was a foregone conclusion. But she delayed it due to mourning. Congress overtures muddied the waters. As the time went by the suspense intensified. Betting over the continuance of alliance started. I betted for break up. Later she threw spanner in the wheel and everything virtually came to a standstill. Spanner still holds the wheel. Mourning period, Congress overtures and bickering within the party may be her motivation for toughening her position but asking its alliance partner, if she really valued them as partners, to hand out concrete assurances for implementation of coalition’s common agenda is a political coup of the sort, so far not seen in India. Politicians are known for coups to grab power but it is opposite in J&K. Congress overtures was that craze for power despite Mufti Sahib having had rejected the same offer out rightly even when it was unconditional. Even Farooq Sahib’s hint of BJP-NC tie up, which Omar denied, was a sign of power hunger. In the present case both BJP & PDP have started opening their cards slowly but yet shying away from yet another historic initiative. Today it is ‘We will-we Won’t’ in J&K, tomorrow it may be ‘We won’t, we Will’. Incidentally the BJP, whom we criticise for power craze is asking the Governor more time to suggest ‘we won’t or we may will’ suggesting that it has yet another option in NC, purely a wild guess but people in general are looking at that option.
It took long for Mufti and Modi to firm up the alliance. By doing it they ensured a remarkable strategic victory, to my mind. Mufti Sahib ensured that his Southern flank was well protected and Modi knew that his Northern flank, which is the weakest link in his game plan, was fully protected by this alliance. This showed that despite conflicting ideologies, they do have the shared interests.
The issues flagged by PDP, in particular, are (i) relations with Pakistan (ii) revocation of the AFSPA (iii) dialogue with separatists and (iv) giving hydropower projects to J&K govt. All these are contentious issues. To my understanding even if they were part of the ‘agenda of alliance’, they were to be silently handled or even buried under the carpet with focus on governance and development. Reviving them to rake up passion and put pressure is not workable in because there Newton’s law of equal and opposite reaction will apply immediately. It amounts to just gaining a few brownie points. Even if Neam Akhtar, official spokesperson of PDP did say, “for us the ‘agenda of alliance’ is the sacred document that we should be going by. But there have to be some assurances on it”. Referring to the relations with Pakistan, he said while efforts are underway to improve the ties, it is not clear how this goal can be achieved without involving Jammu and Kashmir in the process”. But whose assurances was not specified. If the PDP is expecting such assurances from the Prime Minister, it may turn out to be a very tall demand because Modi is not going to give such undertaking which is not only unreasonable but untenable, least an undertaking which goes against the national interest.
Talking of the agenda points one by one, firstly, the relations with Pakistan will virtually remain blow-hot – blow-cold as before. But PDP’s demand for involving Jammu & Kashmir in the dialogue is the reiteration of voice of separatists. Till now separatists had been asking for their partnership in Indo-Pak dialogue but no govt in the past accepted it. People or political parties of Jammu or Ladakh have not put such condition ever. Such demand emerging from the largest political party pan Kashmir is a political coup and an indication of ‘we won’t’ knowing that it won’t be met. BJP is under severe criticism of its alliance with PDP after JNU alleged anti-national-pro Afzal Guru episode blaming PDP of declaring Afzal Guru as martyr. Gimmickry of Kashmir politics is getting exposed.
Since too much water has flown in Jhelum, continuance of alliance under the circumstances is both tenable and untenable. It is just about taking the first step by one of the two. If they don’t, Governor’s Rule is by far the best option. If both the alliance partner are suspicious of each other and have lost faith and trust over implementation of ‘agenda of alliance’, the document that was reached between two parties, one headed by the Prime Minister who has a massive mandate at the national level and the other by Mufti Sahib who had similar mandate at the state level, must opt out honorably. Other issues like revocation of AFSPA and return of power projects are being said to be for the benefit of the people of the state. If that is so, why it hasn’t happened so far. No govt in the centre ever was anti public in J&K. Infact each successive govt is blamed for over appeasement of Kashmir. Why an issue today. With the BJP maintaining a studied silence on these issues, suggesting ‘we will’ and the hardening of stance by PDP indicating ‘we won’t’, Governor Rule may prolong.
Other issue of concern to the public at large are and should be included in the agenda of alliance, (i) drastic demographic changes taking place in J&K through inward population flows of religious, ethnic and linguistic groups. (ii) land grabbing for migrant settlements (iii) land grabbing by politicians and bureaucrats (iv) prevalence of civil war like situation in the valley and frequent law and order problems affecting administration / governance (v) suppression of minorities and abetting them to emigrate from their present settlements including re-emigration of refugees and Pandits (vi) arrival of Islamic finances for insurrection and entry of arms to attack security forces such as in Pathankot (vii) contesting ‘K’ issue in international forums (viii) issues related to Gilgit-Baltistan’s demographic engineering and merging it in Paksitan. These issues are important to a common man and hence must form part of agenda of alliance.
An idea of demographically engineered break up of J&K and merging of illegally occupied part of J&K in Pakistan is emerging on the horizon. This has been sensed from the speeches of Mr. Bob Blackman, British Parliamentarian, Chairman of ‘Friends of India Society’ in UK, given in various forums during his recent visit to Srinagar and Jammu. As per him there is a strong pro- Pakistan and anti-India lobby in his Parliament, in UK and Pak Diaspora, who are strongly promoting such engineering. Similar lobbies in US are no wonder. JNU episode un-nerves security experts. Indians, who are concerned about the nation’s well being and security, will certainly observe the surreal similarity of current developments in the region with that of Iraq and Syria type pattern. The commonality is clear and ominous. We can only hope that our public opinion and the country’s national decision-making apparatus will realise that the experiences of a far-off countries is of great relevance to J&K. We can protect and safeguard ourselves only if we draw the appropriate and correct lessons from history. Under the circumstances PDP and BJP are expected to rise to the occasion and form a stable govt and ensure unity and integrity of the already troubled state. It should a subject matter of interest to political analysts. At no cost J&K should be allowed to move towards break up, least when two strong (almost) regional parties form a coalition govt.
A senior National Conference leader and former minister told IANS that his party never had doubts that Mehbooba Mufti would eventually sail with the BJP whatever she may say publicly. “That is going to happen.”
If that happens and the talks with Ram Madhav end on a satisfactory note, Governor’s Rule is likely to give way to an elected Government in Jammu and Kashmir.
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