TOKYO/JAKARTA, Jan 16: The last time he was prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe’s inaugural foreign trip was to China. In the job again 7 years later and relations with Beijing now chilly, Abe is turning first this time to the rising economic stars of Southeast Asia.
A hawkish Abe wants them to help counterbalance the growing economic and military might of China at a time when Japan needs new sources of growth for its languishing economy and is debating whether to make its own military more muscular.
But experts warn he will have to tread carefully during his visit to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam this week to avoid provoking Bejing by appearing to “contain” China.
Beijing is also scouring the region in search of new investment and trade opportunities and sources of raw materials. But it is also clashing with countries in the region over territorial rows in the South China Sea, as well as with Japan over tiny isles in the East China Sea.
Moreover, Abe may find his hosts keen to avoid upsetting China, now their major economic partner as well.
“The Japanese government is trying to solidify its relations with other countries in the region and strengthen its bargaining power before talking to China,” said Narushige Michishita, an associate professor at the National Graduate Institute.
Abe had hoped to go first to Washington this time after his Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) big win at the polls last month, in order to bolster the security alliance with his country’s main ally. But because U.S. President Barack Obama was too busy, he will start with members of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Japanese firms are already eyeing Southeast Asia as an alternative to investment in China after a long-simmering feud with Beijing over disputed islands in the East China Sea flared up last year, sparking protests in China and hurting trade.
Abe has made clear that ASEAN’s planned integration in 2015, creating a bloc with combined economies worth $2 trillion and a population of 600 million, is a significant lure for a Japanese economy that has been trapped in deflation for decades and whose population is ageing fast and shrinking.
He also says, however, that he wants to go beyond mere economic ties and expand relations in the security field. He is expected to give a policy speech in Jakarta.
SHARED VALUES
In an echo of the push for a broader Asian “arc of freedom and prosperity” that underpinned Abe’s foreign policy during his first term in office – which ended when he quit abruptly – the Japanese leader is also likely to refer to his desire for deeper ties with countries that share democratic and other values.
“Japan’s path since the end of World War Two has been to firmly protect democracy and basic human rights and stress the rule of law,” Abe told NHK public TV on Sunday. “I want to emphasise the importance of strengthening ties with countries that share such values.”
One issue that could come up is a maritime “Code of Conduct” that the United States has urged China and its Southeast Asian neighbours to agree on as a step toward reducing tensions.
“Japan should play a more significant, responsible role not only for the prosperity but also stability in this part of the world, especially in its waters,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a former diplomat close to Abe.
“Possibly we could work together with Southeast Asia in a possible broad, extended Code of Conduct in the waters to avoid unnecessary and unintended friction or disputes,”said Miyake, now research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies.
(agencies)
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