Excelsior Correspondent
JAMMU, Nov 11: The opposition PDP is likely to emerge as single largest party in the Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir improving its tally from present 21 to between 27-33, an India IT-C Voter tracking poll telecast this evening by the channel, revealed.
However, the PDP will fall short of majority mark of 44 in the House of 87. Significantly, PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed is the first choice of the people of the State for Chief Ministership with 53 per cent people in the Kashmir Valley supporting him as new CM of J&K leaving Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad way behind.
The BJP is also expected to do very well in the elections and might record highest ever tally in its history but would well fall short its Mission 44+, the Opinion Poll said.
It said the PDP will emerge as single largest party in Jammu and Kashmir with 27-33 seats in the House of 87 followed by the BJP, which could get its highest ever tally between 23 to 29 seats.
The poll predicted 10-16 seats for ruling National Conference and 6 to 12 for the Congress. It gave 6-12 seats to Others.
In the 2009 elections, National Conference had won 28, Congress 17, PDP 21, BJP 11 and ‘Others’ 10 seats.
Voting percentage wise, a whopping 22 pc swing has been projected in favour of BJP up from 12 pc in 2009 to 34 pc this time, while a 10 pc swing has been projected in favour of PDP up from 15 pc last time to 25 pc now. National Conference has been projected to get 11 pc votes, Congress 15 pc and ‘Others’ 15 pc votes.
Asked who was the best candidate to become Chief Minister in J&K, PDP leader Mufti Mohammed Sayeed was the front runner with 53 pc favouring him in the Valley, 20 pc in Jammu and 10 pc in Ladakh region. Eleven pc supported his daughter Mehbooba Mufti in the Valley, 3 pc in Jammu and 17 pc in Ladakh region. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah was favoured by 11 pc in valley, 3 pc in Jammu and 16 pc in Ladakh region.
The current opinion poll is based on interviews of 4322 randomly respondents in the first week of November. Long term trends are based upon the cumulative tracking poll data of 12,000+ respondents interviewed during last 12 weeks across all Assembly segments in both the poll bound States. The data have been weighted to known census profile and the margin of error is plus/minus 3 pc at State level and plus/minus 5 pc at regional level.
In Jharkhand, the India TV-C Voter tracking poll predicts 29-35 seats for BJP, 17-23 seats for Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, 6-12 seats for Jharkhand Vikas Morcha, 7-13 seats for Congress and 7-13 seats for ‘Others’ in a house of 81.
In 2009, the JMM and BJP had won 18 seats each, Congress had won 14, JVM had won 11 and ‘Others’ 20 seats.
Voting percentage wise, the tracking poll predicts a 12 pc swing in favour of BJP, which is projected to get 32 pc votes, followed by JMM 19 pc, Congress 13 pc, JVM 12 pc and ‘Others’ 24 pc.
In Jharkhand, Chief Minister Hemant Soren was the frontrunner with 14 pc non-tribals and 30 pc tribals supporting him, followed by JVM chief Babulal Marandi who was favoured by 20 pc non-tribals and 22 pc tribals. 15 pc non-tribals and 3 pc tribals favoured BJP leader Yashwant Sinha, while 9 pc non-tribals and 6 pc tribals favoured BJP leader Arjun Munda.
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