KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 27: Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose to a 6-week high on Monday, as traders continued to bet on tight global edible oil supplies with no sign of the drought easing in the soy-producing U.S. Midwest.
U.S. New-crop soybeans hit a contract high on Monday after farm newsletter Pro Farmer estimated U.S. Soybean production would be worse than forecasts by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A smaller supply of soybeans to be crushed into soybean oil had widened palm oil’s discount to soybean oil to above $250 per tonne, shifting more demand to the cheaper tropical oil.
‘There’s a lot more upside for crude palm oil prices because so far palm oil has been lagging behind soybean oil,’ said James Ratnam, an analyst with TA Securities in Malaysia.
‘The second thing is that there could be new stimulus measures coming out from China and the U.S. That could boost sentiment.’
By the midday break, the benchmark November 2012 contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 1.4 percent to 3,112 ringgit ($1,001) per tonne after touching 3,122 ringgit, the highest since July 17.
Total traded volumes stood at 11,566 lots of 25 tonnes each, just slightly lower than the usual 12,500 lots.
Palm oil will consolidate further in the range of 3,044-3,097 ringgit per tonne before climbing up towards 3,183 ringgit, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.
Demand appears to be picking up with Malaysia’s exports rising 5.7 percent for the Aug 1-25 period from a month ago, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Saturday.
Traders will be watching for further indications on export trends as another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, releases its Aug 1-20 data together with Aug 1-25 data later in the day.
Refiners in Malaysia’s top oil palm growing state of Sabah will pay millers less for edible oil from next month to preserve margins and better compete with Indonesia, the Business Times reported on Monday, in a move likely to hit planters’ revenues.
Planters are also concerned by a possible return of El Nino to South East Asia as the hot and dry weather pattern can deal serious damage to palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Brent rose above $115 per barrel on Monday on supply worries as Tropical Storm Isaac threatened to interrupt most U.S. offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.
Other vegetable oil markets also traded higher on an oilseed supply squeeze due to the U.S. Dry weather.
By 0446 GMT, the most active U.S. Soyoil contract for December delivery gained 1.4 percent and the most active January 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 1 percent.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0447 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL SEP2 3057 +27.00 3054 3070 467
MY PALM OIL OCT2 3088 +37.00 3079 3098 1451
MY PALM OIL NOV2 3112 +43.00 3100 3122 7677
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3 8254 +80.00 8240 8338 256982
CHINA SOYOIL JAN3 10088 +100.00 10076 10156 289288
CBOT SOY OIL DEC2 57.71 +0.82 57.07 57.85 4863
NYMEX CRUDE OCT2 97.16 +1.01 96.45 97.72 14544
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. Cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. Dollars per barrel
($1=3.11 ringgit)
(agencies)
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