Brig Anil Gupta
Pakistan world’s seventh largest democracy goes to polls tomorrow, i.e., 25th July. In its 71 year history, it is for the second time that transfer of power from a civilian Government to a civilian Government is taking place only for the second time. The Army has ruled the country much longer than the civilian governments. When not in power, the army had always ensured that the civilian Government remains compliant to the dictates of the Chief of Army Staff, the most powerful functionary in the country. After Musharraf era, the Army seems to have taken a strategic decision to remain away from the direct control of the Government and followed the policy of ruling through proxies. Though the visible face of the Government in Pakistan would remain civilian the remote control of power would rest with the Army according to the new strategy so that the international community views Pakistan as a democracy and does not draw its wrath that is usually associated with dictatorial regimes. Elections in any nation are watched keenly by other nations but elections in Pakistan have always been of a great interest to India hoping that an India-friendly Government rises to power in the neighbourhood. But for Pakistan Army it is an anathema. It is repellent to any pro-India Government in place. Pakistan army abhors the idea of a civilian control over nation’s foreign policy and strategic affairs. Its experience of the Governments formed by the two mainstream parties, Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) in the past has not been very pleasant. In the 2018 elections the Army is not willing to take a chance and has worked as per a plan to ensure that the new Government is totally compliant to it. This is the reason why India is watching these elections keenly.
For the first time in Pakistan’s history, Army has been successful in mainstreaming the terrorists by facilitating the nomination of about 260 candidates fielded by dreaded terrorist and rabid anti-Indian Hafiz Saeed. Over 12,570 candidates are contesting the elections to the national assembly and four provincial assemblies. Of the total elected 272 seats, 141 (53%) fall in Punjab, the most populous province of the country. As per Dr Syed Farooq Hasnat, a renowned political analyst, “Whosoever gets majority seats in Punjab will form the Government at the Centre.” Among the mainstream political parties, the major fight will be between PML-N and Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaaf (PTI). Bilawal Bhutto Zardari led PPP is lagging behind in the race. There are 70 nominated members also in the 342 member National Assembly.While Hafiz Saeed has fielded candidates under the banner of dormant Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek, there are three more parties having terror/extremist links that are participating in the election.
Mian Nawaz Sharif, the most popular Pakistani politician with a solid base in Punjab, became the Prime Minister in 2013. He soon became the bête- noir of the Army when he defied its diktat and attended the swearing in ceremony of Indian PM Modi. Nawaz wanted Pakistan to become a true democracy. For this to be possible he was convinced that better treatment of minorities and improved Indo-Pak relations were very important. He worked towards that by amending statutes to grant better life and opportunities to minorities. He also signalled his intention of improving relations with India. The Army reacted violently and started clipping the wings of Nawaz Sharif who had emerged as the Prime Minister with a huge majority. In league with the judiciary, ISI sealed the political career of Nawaz and his family by accusing them as defaulters in Panama gate scandal for holding huge unaccounted wealth and properties overseas. The judiciary and the Army acted in a partial manner because similarly placed former dictator Pervez Musharraf and former Army Chief Kiani were not even questioned. The Army ensured that by punishing Nawaz it also sent a very strong warning to those potential law-makers who harboured any idea of improved ties with India that they would also meet the similar fate. Nawaz’s brother Shabazz Sharif is contesting as the Prime Ministerial face of PML-N. He made a couple of statements recommending Indo-Pak talks to resolve all issues including Kashmir. Interestingly. Kashmir did not figure as a major issue in this year’s campaigning unlike the previous elections.
Sensing that PPP is out of race and PML-N is still popular in Punjab, Army began to promote Imran Khan as the possible future PM. Imran Khan also obliged by seconding Army’s idea of mainstreaming terror and also talked of need of collaborating with terrorists and extremists. ISI used all type of tricks to harass the PML-N candidates including harassment, torture, abduction, bomb blasts, attack on rallies and jail. A wide spread anger swept across the Punjab and people openly agitated in front of Pakistan Army’s Headquarters called GHQ and shouted slogans like ” Yeh jo Dahastgardi hai, Iske peechay wardi hai,” meaning that Army is behind the terror being spread during the campaigning. Indirectly, the Pak Army Chief was accused of being a terrorist. To ensure large scale rigging the Army plans to deploy nearly four lakh troops to cover each and every booth to ensure that candidate of its choice wins.
Skardu-born Gilgit Baltistan’s Washington based activist Senge Hasnan Sering has tweeted, “Defining moment in #Pakistan political landscape as protesters openly call military chief General Bajwa a terrorist & soldiers surrounding them seem completely numb & helpless. The military has turned PAK into a powder keg. Hope generals live long enough to witness the fireworks….Religion: The force that made Pakistan shall unmake it.” He has openly asked for Indian intervention on behalf of POJK. Is Pakistan ripe for implosion after these elections with the Army acting as the catalyst?
The recent revelations of a senior judge of Islamabad High Court Justice Shauqat Siddiqui openly blaming the ISI for direct control of judiciary and media is an eye-opener for the international community which so far had not displayed much interest in the ongoing election process. The non-compliant media has also been badly choked. There are wide spread killings of potential candidates in Baluchistan. Sindh, POJK including GB and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have been rocked with terrorist attacks and virtual unrest among the populace is evident.
In its quest to install a compliant anti-India government that would give free hand to the military to look after nation’s foreign policy, strategic affairs and burgeoning business interests of the Army and its officer corps, hope the ISI is not creating a 1971 type post- election scenario. The political events that led to 1971 and the barbaric treatment of the Bengalis by the Pakistan army leading to bi-furcation of the country with Indian intervention are well known though not very recent. The groundswell of public anger as seen during the campaign may create a civil war like situation in Pakistan after the ISI backed rigged elections are rejected by the people.
All scheming machinations of the Pakistan army may prove counter-productive. Rather than projecting likes of Hafiz Saeed, it may be faced with a situation where regional satraps muster their forces to challenge the hegemony of the Army, which in the eyes of the Public is also responsible for pushing the country towards becoming a Chinese colony. Those in India keenly watching the events in Pakistan as they are developing must be busy preparing and debating post-election scenarios in Pakistan. India should be ready to come to the rescue of hapless, subjugated and politically supressed Pakistanis as it did in 1971.
(The author is a Jammu based political analyst, columnist, security and strategic analyst. The views expressed in the article are totally personal. He can be contacted at anil5457@gmail.com)
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