Amit Kushari (IAS Retd)
Now it is quite clear that AAP is going to contest more than 150 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. Since it is a new party it will have to displace other parties to some extent to make a small room for itself. Parties in the northern and western states of India are likely to be affected most because there is absolutely no question of this new party posing any threat to strong regional parties of the non- Hindi states, like DMK/AIADMK of the Tamils, YSR Congress and TRS / TDP of the Telegus, BJD of the Oriyas, TMC and CPM of Bengalis and Malayalees, CPM of the Tripuris and AGP of the Assamese. The AAP, therefore has to confine itself to the Hindi heartland along with Punjab, Jammu , Maharashtra and Gujrat. Some people say that it may damage the Akali Dal in Punjab but I do not believe this. The Sikhs are solidly with Akali Dal along with the BJP minded Hindus. If AAP penetrates into Punjab and Jammu, it has to get votes from Congress minded  Hindus of Punjab and Jammu and also Muslim voters of Jammu who traditionally vote for Congress or NC. If AAP sets up candidates in the three seats of Kashmir valley, and can come to an understanding with the Hurriyat Conference it can damage NC and PDP also. AAP leaders like Prashant Bhushan and Prof. Anand of Delhi university had called for a referendum in Kashmir on Army deployment and this might have made AAP popular among Kashmiri muslims.
Now coming to the main Hindi heartland, it will be difficult for AAP to make out any political space by snatching votes from parties like BSP, BJP, Shiv Sena because their voters are highly indoctrinated and committed to casteism and regionalism and Communalism as well. However, the seats occupied by Congress and Samajwadi party will be up for grabs because these two parties are likely to collapse. The urban middle class educated people living in Delhi, Bombay, Pune, Thane and Bangalore could easily be swayed towards AAP because Arvind Kejriwal represents the great disapointment of the educated middle class for politicians of traditional parties who are  peceived as crude, dishonest, casteist, comunalist, misogynist and highly deceitful.  The middle class educated urban man identifies himself completely with Arvind Kejriwal who is like one of them, just like Amol Palekar of Hindi movies of 1980s, or Deepti Naval (actress). That is why a large number of intellectuals and artists like Remo Fernandes, Mallika Sarabhai, Meera Sanyal and Capt. Gopinath have joined AAP.  Many TV and IT professionals are also joining AAP. Recently a survey was conducted in 7 metropolitan cities with small samples in the age group of 18 to 45. This is the age group which is pro AAP. The survey found  that 44% of this group could vote for AAP. If this survey is correct then it can be guessed that in the whole population in these areas around 37/38 %  of  people would vote for  AAP since elderly people are unlikely to be swayed in large numbers. 58% have shown their preference for Narendra Modi as PM, and the figure could be as high as 65% for the whole population. This indicates a tremendous popularity  of Narendra Modi even among AAP supporters.  Since most of these surveyed cities have Congress MPs at present,it is obvious that Congress could be badly hit. BJP and Shiv Sena seats may not be that much affected. In UP, AAP may snatch, SP and Congress seats since Muslims are disillusioned  with  these parties. BJP and its allies will be indirectly affected by the rise of AAP because BJP’s expansion programme of 200 or 210 seats could be badly affected. BJP was planning to grab all the Congress and SP seats but because of AAP this may not happen. If AAP can snatch 30 seats from Congress, this could mean a loss of 20 seats in BJP’s expansion programme. So BJP’s target of 200+ could be brought down to 180+. BJP is also greatly affected by AAP as a result. Since BJP is more or less a friendless party and has more diehard enemies, a loss of 20 seats could be fatal for BJP’s ambitions to capture power.
The Congress tally may undoubtedly come down from 100 to 70 as a result of AAP’s entry into the arena. But even with 70 seats, Congress can play a mischievous game with BJP by propping up a third front govt. with a number of small players, headed by someone like Arvind Kejriwal or Jayalalitha or Naveen Patnaik. If that happens India will not get a stable central govt. and India ,as a whole, will suffer. Isn’t it a great irony of fate that the rise of a worthy son of Mother India (Arvind Kejriwal) will ultimately hurt Mother India herself? Recently in her TV interview the great crusader, Kiran Bedi, was perhaps hinting at this sad scenario.
(The author is former Financial Commissioner, J&K)
Feedback to the author at  09748635185  or amitkus@ hotmail.com

Prof. (Dr.) Ashok Kumar Manwati
We in India do not find the applications of the basic pure theoretical concepts and never make it viable to understand the tools it provides to other agencies to find the conclusive results that could bring order, peace and prosperity in the society. Whereas the National Security Agency (NSA) in the US is a large employer of mathematicians who apply mathematical theoretical concepts to identify structures within the chaotic and patterns among the arbitrary. Professional mathematicians are producing valuable foreign intelligence of preventing foreign adversaries from accessing sensitive or classified national security information. Experts in number theory, probability theory, group theory, finite field theory, combinatoricstheory, linear algebra are on the list of employment in NSA.
“Data deluge” and its long term consequent is apparent in new area which would give new perspective to understand the basic science laws and bring big business opportunities while analysing the enormous huge digital data available on net. Big data provides big opportunities for mathematical and statistical science as it is an “Era of Data and observation”. The revolution in information and communication technology is another major factor influencing the conduct of 21st century research. The new cyber tools for collecting, analysing, communicating and storing information are transforming the conduct of research and learning. Extracting useful knowledge from the deluge of data is critical to the scientific success of the future. Data intensive research will drive many of the major scientific breakthroughs in the coming decades. There is a long term need of research and workforce development in computational and data-enabled sciences. Wide spread enthusiasm for the data deluge will turn to Anderson’s article in Wired magazine. Few quotes from this article suggest that we are on the cusp of scientific “Paradigm shift” and Google’s research director offered an update of George Box’s Maxim, “All models are wrong and increasingly you could succeed without them”. The scientific method is to build and visualize model and then to test it. These experiments confirm or falsify theoretical model of how the world works. With massive data, the approach in science – hypothesize, model, test – is becoming obsolete. Newtonian model is wrong at atomic level and quantum mechanics is too flawed. Computational and data enabled science and engineering is the new programme. It is widely recognized that data enabled science form a critical third pillar and has become a distinct discipline today and McKinsey’s Global strategy can save billions or even trillions of dollars in US and Europe in healthcare, retail, public administration and manufacturing by analysing this huge data . The software can help give the structure to unstructured data. Big data can be as lucrative as Y2K business for India.
From Angel rounds to venture capitalist funding firms do build big data tools. HCL technology and Cognizant technology have already roped in XURMO as technology partner. An IKEN solution incubated out in IIT Bombay hasbuilt its own big data architecture for open source platform. Algorithmscan go through reams of data and ensure that clients can report in daily basis. Earlier computational costs were high and now after the hardware and processing power have become affordable and data explosion has happened and there is a consulting layer build for statistical modelling.
Now scientist working in biological companies who made medical and life sciences databases simple and creating an engine that can think intuitively for life science and pharma industry. The drug discovery is expensive and the relation of protein to diseases crucial and where the technology comes in and the companies has created the team of bio-informaticians.
Companies are using the large database to increase their sales and big data has translated into revenue. Even government data makes sense as it changes the western economy and so would it do to India. Cost of storage is low and data mining technologies make it easier to explore data. Data available through social media and mobile phones compel companies to do market research and we are at the cusp of change. Cloud computing technology is enabling all manners of digital data to be stored and accessed online where only $600 are required for storing the entire music created till date. We need mathematicians and statisticians, econometricians to do data analysis and reach customers directly. By 2015 the business of data interpretation will reach $25 billion.
We need to introduce mathematical structure theory in our education curriculum and teach students to analyse big data. It would be a source of big employment in the near future. Data scientists are paid by various companies at the rate of $300 per hour.
Whatever new websites review or tweet cannot be gathered easily, new tools are required that give structure to unstructured data. Handling big data needs expertise in volume, variety and speed. The country needs minimum of 1.5 lakh new data experts to come to grip big data. Bangalore based Jigsaw academy are training people to be big data specialist scientist. Carnegie Mellon university professors who have expertise in artificial intelligence and language technology are making machines to understand the right meaning of search queries. We cannot afford universities to wait for long and miss the enormous opportunity for training the human resource that would generate a new wealth. Universities should make priority to accept the challenge in data deluge research.
(The author is  former Principal Govt. Degree CollegeUdhampur.)

Col J P Singh, Retd

Today is army day
Indian Army originated from the armies of East India Company which eventually became British  Army and finally the Indian Army. Upon partition of India, Army was divided between India and Pakistan. Govts in both countries retained British officers in command and advisory role. This arrangement brought about a peculiar system of command and control. It posed a dichotomous situation. Field Marshal Claude Auchinlek having accepted to be the Supreme Commander of both the armies after partition decided to leave on 30 November 1947 due to differences on military operations ordered by Sardar Patel against Nizam of Hyderabad and Jinnah to annex J&K. Gen Roy Bucher stayed as C-in-C of the Indian Army. This created a situation of an unprecedented dimensions because the British officers were seen working on an anti India political agenda. Gen Messervy was C-in-C Pak Army. Gen Bucher and Messervy were both cavalry officers. Under their command armies of two nations were fighting a war in J&K which they could have prevented. They baulked at having to obey the orders from the once ruled brown natives turned rulers. This created problems for both the sides. Gen Russel resigned as GOC-in-C, Delhi and East Punjab Command when he was denied entry to J&K where the troops under his command were fighting. Lt Gen K M Cariappa replaced him in January 1948 and after the ceasefire in J&K on 1st January 1949, he was appointed  C-in-C of the Indian Army. He took over from Gen Bucher on 15 January 1949 and became the first Indian to command the Indian Army. It was on this day that the Indian Army was fully Indianised. To commemorate this historical change over, 15 January every year is celebrated as the Army Day, with great pride and military fervour.
Primary mission of the Indian Army is to defend the nation from external threats / aggressions. An army split between two countries is today one of the largest standing professional armies of the world with a strength of over 12 Lakh. From day one Indian Army proved its credentials in Kashmir and Hyderabad and later in Goa besides national calamities of Chuglamsar and Uttrakhand. Indian Army is recognized as one which not only upholds the sovereignty of the nation but also upholds the dignity of its citizens. There are glorious examples of Indian Army fighting for foreign nations. As part of the British army, it fought with great distinction during the 1st and 2nd world wars and blazed trails of success where ever it went. It helped the govts of Congo, Cambodia, Maldives  and Angola as part of the UN Peace Keeping Force. Indian Army continues to protect life and property in Southern Sudan in the ongoing ethnic strife despite martyrdom of five soldiers. A Soldier therefore is the proud claimant to such and similar distinctions. Is there any other organisation which can claim such a distinction? Unfortunately despite the sacrifices and the good work done; the army as an institution and soldier as an individual does not get its due. Govt’s cruel apathy towards  martyrdom of Capt Sauarv Kalia and L/Nk Hem Raj, nothing deters Indian soldiers to defend the motherland from external threats.
Having seen coup after coup in third world countries, Pt Nehru became apprehensive of military power. He despised army fearing  Generals could seize power. Having gained power after prolonged struggle, he was not going to lose it to an ambitious General. Hence the army was unwanted in his scheme of things. Thus the army was constantly neglected, marginalised and its fighting capability compromised. Still the army remained loyal to the nation with its focus on operational tasks. It obeyed each and every order without raising an eyebrow. Army men walked unarmed and bare foot into Golden Temple to disarm dreaded militants and a few came out alive. It fought the LTTE in Sri Lanka and died for an alien nation. It wore lungis to assist a rag tag youth organisation of East Pakistan nationals to fight Pak occupation forces to liberate that nation in 1971 and forced 93,000 men Pak Army to surrender. Its officers and men like Capt Vikram Batra dislodged firmly entrenched Pakistanis from insurmountable Kargil heights. It is controlling strategically important Siachen Glacier against all odds where the temperature falls below 50 degrees. It carries out civic action programmes in J&K and North East to ameliorate living conditions of the locals. Still there are attacks on its role in combating militancy in J&K. Can any one deny that normalcy in North East and J&K is largely due to the sacrifices made by soldiers and rescue and relief in Uttrakhand is no body’s guess. Otherwise also today we live happily and sleep peacefully in the border state because the soldiers guard us. This despised Army is not only the saviour of national sovereignty but also of those who face the wrath of the nature. Hope the role of Army in the liberation of Bangladesh and evicting entrenched enemy from Kargil heights as well as in relief and rescue operations in Uttrakhand has belied such misconceptions. Let us not wait for Pakistan and China to teach few more lessons.
It is common knowledge that insurrections break out against corrupt and callous governance. The army is called in to restore normalcy so that the same corrupt govt continue to govern. In doing so, the army is often blamed for excesses. No one is interested in why the people were agitated in the first place or whether they are happy later. The govts are happy since the army does their dirty work, draws the flak while they continue to (mis)rule. Press reporters make whirlwind trips to the disturbed areas once in a while, pick up grapevine and make stories.
The army, having firsthand knowledge of the problems, produces no such reporters. Generals talk only of military affairs, not the civil affairs or (mis)governance. If the army is to be involved so often in counter insurgency operations or relief and rescue missions, it is time that the army is assigned to learns about the civil affairs to be more effective when needed. On this day, let us stand with our saviours and strengthen their resolve to defend the motherland.