Harsha Kakar
The People’s Alliance of the Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) was created on 15 Oct,with the intention of restoring the original status of J and K, which was revoked in August last year. The alliance is a grouping of 11 political parties, including arch-rivals PDP and NC. Farooq Abdullah had stated, in an interview, that people of J and K would prefer the Chinese as they have been hurt by actions of the centre. Mehbooba Mufti had sworn not to fight elections nor unfurl the Indian flag until J and K had its status restored. Both comments faced national outrage.
The Government, on 04 Nov, announced holding of Municipal elections (234 balance seats), Sarpanch and Panch elections as also the District Development Council (DDC) elections. The DDC, being conducted for the first time in the Union Territory, would have a five-year term. Each DDC would comprise of elected members from 14 territorial constituencies which are being delimited. The elections would commence on Nov 28 and be conducted in eight phases.
The announcement of the DDC elections came as a jolt to the PAGD. The alliance which had refused to participate in any political process until the status of J and K was restored was compelled to rethink its options. It was evident that any decision of non participation would impact their future political space and regional standing. Further, ignoring the democratic process would push them further away from the masses.
Hence, the PAGD announced that it would contest elections for the DDC. The PAGD spokesperson, Sajid Lone, stated, ‘despite the abruptness of timing and the suddenness to complete everything in one month, we have unanimously decided to contest these elections unitedly.’ He added that names of candidates would be jointly announced by the Chairperson of the PAGD and Farooq Abdullah. Bitter rivals fighting on a common platform will not be easy, but circumstances have compelled them to participate to regain lost space. These political parties have learnt their lessons when they stayed away from the municipal, Panch and Sarpanch elections held in 2018.
Their spokespersons claimed that the decision to participate was taken based on a feedback from the party cadre. Naeem Akhtar of the PDP stated, ‘It is the sentiment on the ground which is reflected in our decision.’ The Congress also deciding to participate has restored the democratic process in the region. It is likely that the Congress may tie up with the PAGD. This is a victory for J and K as it is the commencement of the political process, a must for the growth of democracy.
It is apparent that the decision to participate has been made after realizing that mainstream political parties in the valley are losing space. Their major fear stems from the fact that the BJP, has made major inroads, which needs to be stemmed. Delay in participating would further erode their political base.
The BJP membership in the Union Territory has been steadily rising. Its membership has risen from 4.5 to 7 Lakhs, of which 2.5 Lakhs are in the valley itself.Its grabbing of a large chunk of Sarpanch elections added to political tensions. These is also a worry that the centre is encouraging local politicians to grab political space and push mainstream political parties into the background.
The announcement of elections and willing participation by all political parties is indicative that the Union Territory is witnessing relative calm. The revival of political activity in the region will globally display the current status of the valley and re-emergence of the democratic process in the region, an action for which India faced flak from some quarters. The silence of the Hurriyat on the announced elections displays that it has lost steam to protest and object.
Simultaneously, it would be interesting to observe the level of participation of political leaders during the campaigning phase and the agenda they adopt to project their stand. Will the battle be based on restoring article 370, demographic concerns, Indo-Pakistan talks, ongoing terrorism or development.
The BJP is bound to employ the development card, both at the macro and micro levels and display its desire to hand over local development to the grassroot levels. It will also highlight development projects initiated and central schemes implemented in the state, which had been denied by mainstream state based political parties.
The approach of other parties is what needs to be observed. Would they counter the development card or play on regional issues of religious majoritarianism and loss of the special status of the state and its impact. Definitely they would employ the demographic change card. In addition, would be the ability of local leaders to muster the electorate to attend rallies.
Though these are not elections for representatives of the J and K Assembly nor the Lok Sabha, however, the results of the election, based on the active participation of all major political parties, working hand in glove against the BJP, would indicate views of the public at large. In case the BJP makes major inroads, then any future election plank can no longer be restoration of original status of the region. Nor can the PAGD continue with its rhetoric of demanding restoration of article 370. In case, the BJP is rejected, then the PAGD would gain strength and confidence to challenge the centre and demand its rights.
The Hurriyat is expected to announce a boycott of the elections close to election dates. A high percentage of voting, rejecting the boycott call, would display the growing irrelevance of the Hurriyat.The ability of security forces to ensure a smooth conduct of elections will project reduction of terrorism in the valley.
The results are expected by the end of December. The election results would determine public acceptance to the central government’s decision of abrogation of article 370 and the standing of mainstream political parties. The fact that all mainstream political parties are participating in the democratic process is a win for India as, despite all objections and hiccups, they have accepted the changed status of the region.
The author is Major General (Retd)
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