Brij Bhardwaj
Who will challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bhartiya Janata Party in 2024 or in polls to State Assemblies in 2022 in crucial states like Uttar Pradesh is a question which is being asked by all but no clear answer is forthcoming. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee whose name is mentioned as one probable leader who may lead the charge, when asked, could only say she is no astrologer and cannot predict..
This may have satisfied those who asked her the question, but fact is that no name has yet emerged who would lead the charge. Forget the leader, even names of political parties who would join hands to oppose BJP are not available. There is general talk that regional parties and Congress will have to join hands if it has to work. This at present seems like asking for the moon. Regional parties consider Congress as a major opponent in many States.
Even regional parties are fighting each other in crucial states like U.P instead of joining hands to fight BJP. Samajwadi Party and BSP of Mayawati both have their vote banks and had joined hands in last poll hoping that they would come to power. But it did not happen. Both are now busy trying to expand their areas of influence. The third player in U.P., Congress is groping in the dark as it has no organisation on the ground. Opposition leaders in U.P. are not even meeting, forget joining hands to challenge the BJP .
The situation is no better in Punjab, another State going to polls. There is no doubt that BJP has lost ground and single handedly will fight for space to show it has a presence. Two regional parties Akali Dal and Aam Admi Party will be fighting each other instead of joining hands. Akali Dal has a pact with Mayawati to expand its base of rich farmers by bringing in Dalits who support BSP. It is not likely to work as in society the two groups work as rivals.
Situation is no different in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand, as regional parties in these States consider Congress as an opponent and not as an ally in fight against the BJP. What may emerge is a tie up in different States after the polls as was the case in Maharashtra. There is no chance of a national alliance coming up to challenge Mr Modi and BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha poll.
Major reason is that unlike in seventies when we had a tall leader like Jaiprakash Narayan with no personal ambition for power, and powerful regional leaders like Choudry Charan Singh, V.P Singh, Devi Lal to provide a base and RSS cadre at ground level to support . This time round, there are some strong regional faces like Mamata Banerjee, M.K Stalin and others, but there is no one with all-India appeal to lead them.
Agreed BJP has small presence in South limited to Karnataka, but it has made fresh gains in North East and its hold on Hindi belt remains strong. In contrast Congress base has shrunk. It is in power in States of Punjab, Rajasthan and Jharkhand. But unless it makes a dent in Uttar Pradesh it will not be able to challenge the BJP. There may be talk of a united front to oppose BJP, but chances of it becoming a reality look unlikely at present. We have many leaders with large egos but small following. They will meet, discuss and disperse. As for the Congress Party at present its fortunes are linked with Gandhi family whose ability to get votes and win elections has taken a hit.
It badly needs fresh blood, new leadership. Not an easy task as most of its leaders have known how to win polls when in power, but find it difficult to play the role of an opposition party. In politics things can change overnight and 2024 is distant future who knows what may happen . U.P will certainly be a trend setter and BJP’s latest salvo reservation of medical seats for otherwise backward classes is one step to retain hold on the State.
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