Kalyani Shankar
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s maiden visit to Bangladesh this weekend is quite significant in view of the importance he reposes in ‘neighbours first’ policy. While his Bangladesh counterpart Sheik Hasina was the first international leader to invite him to visit Dhaka, Modi’s meeting with Hasina takes place after he has completed his one-year in office. Bangladesh is strategically important for India primarily for connectivity through Bangladesh to the northeastern states and maintenance of security. Modi government is keen on both issues.
The Prime Minister goes to Dhaka armed with the Parliament nod for the 41-year-old Land Boundary Agreement between the two countries. The presence of West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee at the signing ceremony of the LBA in Dhaka is also a feather in his cap as Mamata had opposed it earlier. Modi had reached out to Mamata in the past few months with the result there is a thaw in their relationship. She changed her stand after extracting a significant compensation package. With the growing influence of the regional satraps like Mamata and Jayalalithaa this bonhomie is a good beginning for India’s foreign policy and Modi’s own theme of cooperative federalism.
Prime Minister’s visit is significant as the India-Bangladesh relations have seen highs and lows in the past four decades and more. Despite the positive role played by India, some contentious issues between the two countries remain unresolved. These range from diplomatic to economic and trade, border security and boundary lines, sharing of common and trans-boundary waters, communication and transit, illegal immigration and regional and national security against insurgent networks. After the Sheik Hasina government had taken over in 2008, positive changes in the bilateral relations have led to considerable movement on almost all issues of contention. Bangladesh is also important in Modi’s “Act East” policy as it is the gateway to the east.
Both New Delhi and Dhaka realise the need to support each other for economic prosperity as well as keeping the region peaceful.
While Hasina needs New Delhi’s support to deal with her opponents in Bangladesh and strengthen her own base, Modi wants to improve the relations with the neighbors. Dhaka was worried about Modi’s campaign rhetoric about illegal immigration from Bangladesh but the past one-year, these apprehensions have been allayed.
Modi’s main aim during the two-day visit from June 6 would be security related transit corridor in the Northeast. About two lakh army and paramilitary forces are deployed in the Northeastern States to combat the insurgents. It will also help improve economic connectivity. Dhaka is ready to renew the existing transit facility. Part of the security concern also relates to a China angle. New Delhi has long been concerned about the Beijing’s military cooperation and its growing influence with Dhaka as well as in the neighborhood. Modi wants to counter this by his outreach to Dhaka.
The highlight of the visit will be to show case the LBA. By delivering on the LBA, Modi has taken the first step to bail out Hasina, who needs all possible support. If Modi delivers on Teesta in the near future Hasina’s stock with her people will soar further. The LBA deals with the transfer of 111 enclaves with a total area of 17,160.63 acres to Bangladesh, while Dhaka is to transfer 51 enclaves with an area of 7,110.02 acres to India. A 6.1-km undefined border stretch will be demarcated with the bill being passed by parliament
The two leaders will also address the issue of the trade gap, which is still high. Bangladesh’s imports from India stood at $4.45 billion in 2014-2015 while exports stood at $396.43 million during the period. New Delhi has already provided better market access to Bangladeshi to reduce the trade imbalance. But Dhaka feels that there is need to iron out some regulations, which keep the non-tariff barriers an irritant.
Modi’s bonanza of a 2 billion dollar credit to Bangladesh will boost Haisna who is struggling to shake the image of an Indian stooge. This would help her show that New Delhi has addressed Bangladesh’s concerns as much as she has helped India on the security and connectivity front. The credit line is meant for building infrastructure like roads, bridges, power projects and ports in Bangladesh, which will help in connectivity between Nepal and Bhutan to Bangladesh through India.
Besides the LBA there are other economic agreements to improve trade and connectivity including renewals of the revised trade agreement between India and Bangladesh and Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade .The Coastal Shipping Agreement, under which Bangladesh and India would initiate water-route transit and use each other’s important seaports, is quite important. Besides, the two neighbors are also expected to sign fresh agreements and memorandums of understanding in the areas of trade and investment, security, and energy. Both India and Bangladesh will enter into a pact to put a complete stop to trafficking of women and children apart from meting out swift punishment to traffickers across the border. This in turn New Delhi hopes would check the illegal immigration. Bangladesh has been in a denial mode but the BJP had always raised it. Even Modi had talked of throwing out all the illegal immigrants while welcoming the Hindu refugees. Any progress in the contentious Teesta treaty is ruled out, as it is still work in progress.
Modi has already visited Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, China and Maldives. With this visit only Pakistan is left out. China has made headway in the Indian neighborhood and how far Modi’s visit could counter the Chinese influence is yet to be seen. Well begun is half done and Modi has begun well. (IPA)
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