Ashok Bhan
Flip flop diplomacy with Pakistan has been the policy of PM Modi till last month.The relations with Pakistan have been defined by the partition of British India in 1947,the Kashmir conundrum and the military conflicts fought between the two Countries.The relations have always been plaughed by conflicts,hostilities and suspicion,despite the two south Asian Countries share the linguistic,cultural,geographical and economic linkages.
Once late Zulfikhar Ali Bhutto was asked about the cause for blow hot, blow cold diplomacy between the two Countries,”He replied,it is the weather of the sub-continent which mainly remains hot and cold guides the diplomacy in the region”.
There have been three military wars,continuing undeclared war,numerous skirmishes and stand offs,Many successful attempts to improve relations through Shimla agreement, Agra and Lahore summits.The relations soured after Saichen conflict of 1980, Kashmir insurgency of 1989 onwards,Kargil conflict of 1999. Terror attack on Indian Parliament in 2001 almost brought two nuclear nations to a brink of war.Mumbai terror attack of 2008 by Pakistani terrorists,killing hundreds of innocent people gave severe blow to the relations.
Modi and his team carved a policy to isolate Pakistan.Modi”s visits to UAE and other central Asian Countries in mid 2015 were aimed to garner support against terrorism and Pakistan besides tapping their energy resources which India could benefit from. No dialogue with Pakistan became the policy narrative of MEA,PMO and the foreign policy experts.
The grounded students of international relations including myself,always advocated that “In diplomacy dialogue can never cease”. No foreign policy of a Nation State can run without engagement and dialogue,that is the Jurisprudence of International relations.
Modi”s dramatic turn about on engagement with Pakistan ,his acceptance of a tele invite of Nawaz Sharief and his unprecedented stop over for a meeting with PM Nawaz Sharief recently, is a huge Diplomatic Surprise and an astute political move.
Several theories are making rounds.Most people attribute it to friendly counsel by Barrack Obama to Modi for facilitating USA smooth end game in Afghanistan. Because India-Pakistan tensions will complicate matters for US end game.Modi is alerted by a wide advise about the implications of closer China-Pakistan relations as Beijing is trying to remake geography through grand infrastructure projects.Modi is chasten by defeat in Bihar. The anti Pakistan political rant is not working domestically.Borders are always hot, Kashmir gets back to brink of militancy.
SAARC summit is in Islamabad next year ,so is T-20 world cup in India.The two Countries have agreed for “comprehensive bilteral dialogue”.
IS IT A CLIMB DOWN, or at least, A SOFTENING of Modi”s earlier position-? For good students of diplomacy ,it might not be wise to rub this point in but the answer is , of course yes. It is a change that deserves welcome, respect and admiration for the institutional advise PM MODI receives.
The comprehensive dialogue process is rooted in 1997 SAARC Summit where the PMs of both the countries agreed to create such a process but unfortunately it survived only until 26/11 terror attack in Mumbai after which it was suspended. The visit of Ms. Sushma Swaraj is being looked as a great success towards the revival of structured dialogue at a time of the 30th anniversary of SAARC.
Prime Minister Modi’s reach to Islamabad can domestically help him to move his party, BJP,from right to Centre, so that his credentials are internally recognized as a moderate leader of India. Modi’s friendly relations with US President Barak Obama will always been helpful in moving ahead with the structure dialogue with Pakistan. US President is always concerned about the regional security in South Asia.US experts feel that India-Pakistan tensions will complicate and spoil US’s interest in the region. In India, the foreign policy expert including myself, wish to alert Prime Minister Modi about the implications of China-Pakistan close relations as Beijing is trying to remake geography by launching huge infrastructure bridges on the borders. Therefore, engagement at a comprehensive level with Pakistan and try resolution of issues becomes diplomatically important.
Modi may not be able to transact any big issue with Pakistan. Pakistan always wants business on Siachen and Sir Creek which, in turn, is always demurred. India do not by the so-called 4-point formula on Kashmir. The terror and talks cannot go together. But this time, Pakistan has assured that there would be speedy trail for the 26/11 Mumbai terrorists in Pakistan. Thus, the only issue which can find an agreement is enhanced trade relations and other economic developments schemes but that too make take some time to materialize. Conducting frequent talks at different levels, which do not yield satisfying outcomes is part of diplomacy, India and its Prime Minister is to be seen as a participant in the process of buying peace with the hostile neighbouring country to promote his credentials as a moderniser internationally,
The BJP has therefore to change its political narrative from the emotive rhetoric to a tolerant and moderate political discourse, backing up the Prime Minister’s diplomatic effort. The PM can only then focus the public mind on the prospects of resolving the big issues of the country.
Paying attention to Kashmir will be beneficial.Political dialogue with all the stake holders and their political empowerment other than a tiny political class of PDP becomes important.The exiled Kashmiri Pandits and the Youth whose participation in the elections made a huge difference are the most important component of the political process. Kashmir longs for peace,economic and political empowerment”.Sub Ka Sath Sub Ka Vikas” should be the real mantra for main streaming Jammu & Kashmir into the democratic Union of India with all the guarantees of its pluralist and,regional identity both civilizational and Constitutional.
(The author is Senior Advocate & Chairman (Kashmirpolicy and strategy group)
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