Brij Bhardwaj
All those who had hoped for a joy ride and victory march for Narendra Modi after he was selected to head the campaign committee for coming elections to Lok Sabha are disappointed today and busy fighting those outside and trying to contain the damage within their own ranks caused by a revolt by no less a person than the party nominee for the top job of prime Minister in 2009 elections.
Mr Advani has withdrawn his resignation from party posts following intervention by RSS chief, but the opponents of Mr Modi have not been silenced. A new salvo was fired by Mr Sudheendra Kulkarni, who was an important person during the time when NDA ruled Delhi with Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee as Prime Minister. Mr Kulkarni has not only called Mr Modi an “authoritarian” but also criticised party chief for being “foxy” and as one who also has ambitions to be Prime Minister.
Mr Kulkarni criticised party members for humiliating and marginalising senior most leader of party, L.K Advani, who had built BJP as a major force and has the ability to contribute in future. According to Mr Kulkarni there is only one Choice for opponents of Mr Modi to either oppose his induction openly or retire. Even Chief Minister of Goa Manohar Parikkar in an interview with a national daily called handling of riots in Gujarat in 2002 as an administrative failure. This makes it clear that as the poll campaign picks up Mr Modi will be repeatedly asked to explain why Gujarat Government failed to check riots for so long in 2002 and will continue to haunt them as Mr Modi boasts of providing good governance, but has no explanation for this gross failure.
While the fight goes on to contain the dissidents and present a united front in BJP its ability to get allies has been undermined with Janata Dal United second large party in BJP led National Democratic Alliance walking out with the result that a seventeen year old alliance which had won the poll twice in Bihar has broken down. Mr Nitish Kumar continues to rule Bihar as he has a majority in State Assembly with help of four Independents and four Congress members. The result is that BJP prospects have been greatly affected in important State of Bihar.
The more important signal coming out of recent happenings after Mr Modi was made chief of election committee and more likely their candidate for Prime Ministership is that it would be difficult for BJP to pick up any allies in 2014 poll. At present they can depend only on two small players in Maharashtra and Punjab while in days of Mr Vajpayee they could boast of allies in double figures and had declared that the days of their isolation were over for good.
The writing on the wall for BJP leadership in 2013 is that it will have to fight a lonely battle in case they project Mr Modi as their choice for the top job. The alternative is also not very attractive as no other leader can enthuse the party cadre to the extent Mr Modi can do, but there are serious doubts if he could help BJP win nearly 200 seats in Lok Sabha to make it attractive for fence sitters to join them after the poll. In any case much of gains made are being washed away with growing criticism of Mr Modi model of development which is described as elective instead of being inclusive. He also faces criticism for being a candidate of corporate world.
Mr Modi certainly enjoys the support of corporate world who feel that he could bring about economic turnaround through good governance. He also has the support of middle class and has strong support from social media. The biggest challenge facing Mr Modi and his supporters will be to overcome the impression that BJP is a house divided. In case they fail to bring around Mr Advani he is capable of inflicting serious damage on the BJP campaign.
The other handicap will be repeated talk of lack of governance in 2002 and anti-minority image of Mr Modi. It is much easier to polarize minority vote while majority Hindus are divided on caste basis particularly in States like U.P, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and others. There is also a question mark on the ability of Mr Modi to influence voters outside Gujarat. His record with respect of Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh has not been inspiring. (IFS)
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