Ashok Bhan
Kashmir has been burning for more than 27years. Tens of thousands of people,from young to soldiers lost their lives and population of Kashmiri Pandits exiled.This is the time for a holistic political process to kick start afresh ,drawing from past efforts and adopting best practices from around the world on resolving such unrest.New Delhi needs to approach the issues keeping in sight the fact that India”s strategic interests are intertwined with the good will of the” Valley”s ordinary people including Kashmiri Pandits” in particular and JK State in general,”and not the land alone. “Before the new age violent upsurge yet again gets out of hand, New Delhi needs to deal with the issues in hand with a grand vision.I spent quite some time in the Valley recently in Chillai-Kalan,interacted with large sections of civil society and also the leaders who for reasons known best to them have so far remained away from the mainstream polity.A section of local youth is reportedly joining the militant ranks even after the normalcy-is a very serious dimension/phenomenon that deserves urgent attention of the political leadership.
There is a worrying turn of events in JK State.The changing character of the insurgency/militancy is a serious warning signal that “an urgent Course Correction” at all the levels of Governance, is required to prevent the escalation and its shift to radicalization.One of the causes of the new age turbulence is being attributed to the betrayal of the democratic expectations.The aspirations and expectations were roused by the election campaign and frequent visits and speeches of PM Modi. Formation of PDP-BJP coalition further fueled the hopes that through a legitimate political process the aspirations would be addressed and there will be socio-economic empowerment that takes care of youth and the other sections.
The current spurt of upsurge is against the betrayal of promises,which took the toll of more than 100 lives ,injuring thousands and pallet blinding of several by excessive use of force. These sacrifices have yet thrown up an opportunity for the political leadership to strengthen the political process and engage with all the stake holders for finding a meaningful answer to the people”s aspirations.
The debate in Parliament about Kashmir situation and all party meet has come about after a month of new age youth turbulence in the Valley.It was a late response.The Track-2 initiative by Yashwant Sinha has also expressed the need for urgent attention of PM & HM.The present turmoil has brought Pakistan at the central stage to internationalize the internal strife of Kashmir.
Pakistan is now gone berserk by even claiming Kahmir as its integral part after having failed in all international forums.
Use of pellets for crowd dispersal has brought international players and Human Rights activists in play to demonize and condemn the security forces.
Paying attention to Kashmir by PM Modi himself and his team perticularly Rajnath Singh the HM,who was seen by Kashmiris as a sober face of democracy, will be most crucial and beneficial.Political dialogue with all the stake holders and their political empowerment other than a small political class of vested interst in JK becomes important.The exiled Kashmiri Pandits and the youth whose participation in the elections of 2014 made a huge difference are the most important component of the political process.The educated youth going towards militancy in large numbers is a serious cause of concern. Large scale avenues of employment for the needy youth may have to be created. Kashmiris are longing for peace,economic and political empowerment. “Sub Ka Sath Sub Ka Vikas”has to be the real mantra for large scale development and full economic boom.
Relations with Pakistan
Nawaz Sharief’s brazen claim that Kashmir is likely to be annexed and merged as a part of Pakistan has shocked the Kashmiris. Kashmiris termed that apolitical and undiplomatic. The theory of third option-Right to self determination for Azadi is made irrelevant and so is the so called separatist struggle rendered redundant. Pakistan has made its real agenda known to Kashmiris that all its so called military support, exporting terrorists to Kashmir and inflicting death and destruction agenda on Kashmiris is meant to enslave Kashmiris in the failed Nation called Pakistan. Kashmiris have always rejected Pakistan as an option,even when the founder of Pakistan MA Jinhah visited Kashmir.The present unrest is a manifestation of People”s assertion for protection of its (sub-national) distinct cultural and constitutional entity within the larger entity of Union Of India and the sub-continent.Kashmir is unique and distinct historically, Geographically, culturally, spiritually and politically and shall remain so for all times. Kashmiris have deep societal understanding that their future lies in democratic, secular, vibrant, diverse and prosperous India.
There have been three military wars,continuing undeclared war,numerous skirmishes and stand offs. Many successful attempts to improve relations through Shimla agreement,Agra and Lahore summits have also been made.The relations soured after Siachen conflict of 1980,Kashmir insurgency of 1989 onwards,Kargil conflict of 1999. Terror attack on Indian Parliament in 2001 almost brought two nuclear nations to a brink of war.Mumbai terror attack of 2008 by Pakistani terrorists,killing hundreds of innocent people gave severe blow to the relations.The Pathankot and several terror attacks on Indian soil and perennial terrorist activities in JK State and unnecessary intervention in the internal affairs perticularly in Kashmir situation continue to distract the real and meaningful talks with Pakistan.
PM Modi frankly says that he tried to build friendly relations with Pakistan but unless the democratic and military power centers in Pakistan are on the same page the talks on any issue won’t succeed.
Prime Minister Modi’s reach to Islamabad was even seen progressive as that would domestically help him to move his party, BJP,from right to Centre, so that his credentials are internationally recognized as a moderate leader of India. Modi’s friendly relations with US will always be helpful in moving ahead with the structured dialogue with Pakistan.The caveat is terror and talks can not go together. US is always concerned about the regional security in South Asia. US experts feel that India-Pakistan tensions will complicate and spoil US’s interest in the region. In India, the foreign policy expert including myself, wish to alert Prime Minister Modi about the implications of China-Pakistan close relations as Beijing is trying to remake geography by launching huge infrastructure bridges on the borders. Therefore, engagement at a comprehensive level with Pakistan and try for resolution of issues becomes diplomatically important despite its belligerence.
PM Modi may not be able to transact any big issue with Pakistan. Pakistan always wants business on Siachen,water issues and Sir Creek which, in turn, is always difficult. Kashmir is used only as a bargaining chip.India will not agree for any third party inter-locution. India does not buy any formula on Kashmir except the good friendly and neighborly/trade relations. Pakistan had assured that there would be speedy trial for the 26/11 Mumbai terrorists in Pakistan and that was an untrue declaration. Thus, the only issue which can find an agreement is enhanced trade relations and other economic developments schemes but that too may take some time to materialize. Conducting frequent talks at different levels, which do not yield satisfying outcomes is part of diplomacy. India and its Prime Minister is to be seen as a participant in the process of buying peace with the hostile neighboring country to promote his credentials as a modernizer internationally.
The BJP-RSS combine that forms political support base for PM Modi and his team has to change its political narrative from the right wing rhetoric to a tolerant and moderate political discourse, backing up the Prime Minister’s all out political and diplomatic efforts so that he is recognized as a moderate Prime Minister. The PM Modi can only then focus the public mind on the prospects of resolving the big ticket issues of the country.
(The author is Senior Advocate and International Law expert Chairman, Kashmir policy and strategy group)
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