Col J P Singh, Retd
Enthusiasm and high voter turn out in J&K was remarkably promising but the outcome is awfully hopeless. The result shows deepening of political, ideological and geographical wedge between the regions. For the knowledge of epaper readers, PDP has 28, BJP 25, NC 15, Congress 12, Peoples Conference 2, CPI(M) 1, JKPDF 1 with three independents in the newly elected Assembly of 87 members. This split verdict makes it clear that the people have voted for a coalition Govt but structure of such coalition has been left to the parties. Hence compromises and conciliation is inherent in this verdict. Top leadership of all the four main parties is in a dilemma. The choices before all the four main players are daunting. Congress, NC and PDP have political differences among themselves but all have ideological differences with the BJP. Each will want to keep BJP out. But keeping BJP deliberately out of power in J&K would amount to undermining the mandate when its vote share is remarkable in all three regions. Delay in Govt formation is obvious but the emerging signals are not reassuring. We have to wait and watch.
Till the 23rd of December possibility of PDP Govt was high whereas from the very next day its probability became much higher when both Congress and NC offered unconditional support. The 1st option with least compromises is to accept Congress support and form the Govt with 4 others. But the people verdict is anti Congress particularly in Jammu region. Moreover it is a sinking ship. There is not a single Hindu MLA in Congress or PDP. Their earlier rotational coalition had ended bitterly. Hence such alliance will be a default coalition, more so when they talk of a secular Govt. Hence it goes down as the last choice for Mufti.
The 2nd option before Mufti Saheb is to accept Omar Abdullah’s offer and frame a coalition of regional outfits. But in the competitive politics that they both are in, they are not only bitter political rivals but their vote bank is also the same. Then in September Omar spectacularly failed to show leadership and administrative ability when sudden floods hit Srinagar. Mufti fully exposed his disappearance and of his govt at the time of reckoning. Their rivalry is not at the leadership but at the gross root level as well. How do they reconcile the family feuds and join hands makes it a difficult choice. Omar’s discomfiture is not in his own party doing badly, it is PDP doing badly which means that PDP can tie up with either with the Congress or BJP which keeps NC out of power. Both are not to his liking. Hence NC going with the BJP may be working in his mind even in London. But as per Omar’s statement “if Lalu and Nitish can come together why can’t Muftis and Abdullah’s” at the time of offer of support, is to be taken note of which also means that Modi and Omar can also come together. Omar’s prompt offer of support to Mufti smacks of cleverness, if not a trap, to share power with a rival who wants to root out NC from the valley. It also amounts to alienating Jammu altogether. Such arrangement involves a big risk and comprise for Mufti. Hence it becomes the least choice; an option only if all other choices fall flat. This compels NC to explore alternative options, if any, if Omar doesn’t want PDP coming to power.
3rd option before Mufti is to explore the possibility of forming a coalition with BJP (28 + 25 = 53). This makes his Govt stable and strong. BJP should also be trying for such arrangement. Though looks fully stable but a hard bargaining for both. Mufti’s conditions of full six years term, freezing Article 370 as an issue and revocation of AFSPA, as coming out in media, makes the bargaining difficult. If BJP compromises on these issues, reciprocally PDP may have to freeze its self rule agenda. Self Rule is its vision document. Ideological retreat from their well entrenched positions will be near suicidal for both. Hence BJP should be looking for a coalition with NC and PDP with Congress as their preferable choices though nothing is coming out clearly from any quarter as yet. The fact that BJP does not threaten NC in the valley and NC does not threaten BJP in Jammu should be Okay with both to make the Govt. But the emphatic nature of victory in Jammu against dynastic and discriminatory rule of NC makes it difficult for BJP to tie up with NC. But it allows BJP a full term rule and fulfills its ambition of a Hindu Chief Minister. Such arrangement may be workable because it will be a secular coalition of a regional and a national party as has been happening before. Moreover NC has been part of NDA Govt before. But opposition within both parties won’t let it happen easily. But such possibility exists.
In Kashmir people have voted for PDP and in Jammu they have voted for BJP. This shows that people of Jammu want BJP Govt in J&K whereas people in the Valley want PDP Govt. Split verdict suggests that neither BJP nor the PDP should opt out of power. How do both reconcile to this contradiction is their litmus test. After all politics is the art of managing contradictions. People, for a change, may still accept an alliance between two largest ideological rivals which will stand for good governance and development. This is what people will want by and large.
Indira-Sheikh Accord of 1974 is an example of great reconciliation for J&K and Lalu-Nitish coalition is similar example of a great compromise in BIHAR. Akali-BJP alliance in Punjab has been working for decades and Shiv Sena-BJP alliance seems to be holding grounds. If such alliances with BJP can work elsewhere there is no reason why PDP and BJP cannot have an alliance. By setting aside their ideological differences Modi-Mufti embrace will be another example of great political reconciliation in J&K. It will not be a coalition merely for the Govt formation and power sharing but it will be an exemplary reconciliation between the regions and the communities. The split verdict has offered an opportunity to Mufti and Modi to show great statesmanship. Wisdom must prevail over partisan considerations.
Post-poll alliances do not necessarily need any ideological cohesion. These can work on a common minimum programme. There are no permanent friends or foes in politics holds good. BJP is the most relevant factor in J& K because this time it has proved to be the sole representative of Jammu region which deserves a place in the govt. In terms of vote share, it is the largest party with 23 % against 22.7 of the PDP. No Govt will be stable if Jammu remains unrepresented. The only stable govt as of now looks to be a PDP-BJP alliance in which BJP will represent Jammu and PDP will represent Kashmir although other options are equally likely. An arrangement of rotational CM, if acceptable, will provide a balanced representation to both the regions. Political fog persists but it devolves upon political leadership to give a good New Years gift to the people of J&K soon.
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