By Nantoo Banerjee
The growing Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy action agenda sending so-called research vessels to ports in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and now the Maldives poses a major maritime threat to India and its littoral region. The PLA-Navy’s tie-ups with India’s neighbouring countries are all bilateral. The government of India may be upset with the actions of its sovereign neighbours, but it can do little to prevent the PLA-Navy’s bilateral cooperation with countries in the region. What do these Chinese research vessels do in these ports? What are they researching
According to international naval experts and analysts, the Chinese PLA-linked vessels are engaged to map the Indian Ocean and seas around India such as the Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. China’s growing research activities in these waters as also in other parts of the world are designed to expand undersea military operations. India is naturally concerned. India has been constantly engaging with its neighbour nations to prevent docking of Chinese spy vessels with little positive response.
In fact, the newly elected Maldives government under President Mohammed Muizzu has totally ignored India’s plea seeking not to allow a dual use Chinese “spy” vessel, Xiang Yang Hong 03, to dock in its port. The Maldives government says the Chinese vessel is meant only for rotation of personnel and replenishment. The vessel will not conduct research on the Maldivian waters. To the Maldives, China is a friendly country. President Muizzu visited China soon after he came to power. The Chinese vessel is expected to dock in the Maldives port anytime around the first week of February. There is no guarantee that the Chinese vessel will not engage itself in mapping the water for the purpose of future undersea military operations. The chances are the ‘Xiang Yang Hong 03’ will do exactly the same with or without the knowledge of the Maldives government.
India’s neighbours having sea links may actually have no choice but to fall for the Chinese military pressure to defend themselves against a naval attack in the absence of strong and reliable support from the Indian Navy, which is poorly positioned as a global naval power compared to China, the United States and Russia. In terms of number of warships under its control, PLA-Navy is the world’s largest although in terms of fighting strength the US Navy is rated No. 1 by the World Directory of Modern Military Worships (WDMMW), followed closely by China’s PLA-Navy.
The Indian Navy does not stand anywhere near China. The WDMMW’s True Value Rating (TvR) of the Indian Navy is only 91 against PLA-Navy’s 319.8. The US Navy enjoys the TvR of 323.9. The TvR is based on the fighting strength in terms of modernization, logistical support, attack and defence capabilities among others. A naval power is not simply assessed on its total number of warships and submarines, but rather its quality and general mix of inventory. Also taken into account are the capabilities of local shipyards, inventory balance (general mix of unit types) and force experience.
Indian Navy ranks well below in the list of world’s top naval powers. Even the Indonesian Navy with nearly 250 units having the TvR of over 137 points is far ahead of the Indian Navy having around 102 units with the TvR of 91. The Republic of Korea Navy, with close to 140 units and the TvR of 123, is also well ahead of the Indian Navy. Japan’s Maritime Defence Force is considered as the world’s sixth largest naval power with the TvR of 121. The Indian Navy is ranked 7th. Incidentally, out of the world’s top seven naval powers in terms of fighting strength, as many as five are from Asia. Only the US Navy and Russian Navy, ranked 3rd, are from the other regions of the world. Under the circumstances, few South Asian countries can reliably depend on the Indian Navy for maritime protection. That explains PLA-Navy’s full-scale military expansion programme in the South Asian region forcing China’s major military rival, India, under a defensive position.
Unfortunately, the strength of India’s merchant navy, which can be converted into battle ships in times of war, is even poorer. Over centuries, countries at war have converted their merchant vessels into battle ships with some quick modifications. The Hague Convention (VII) of 1907 related to the conversion of merchant vessels into war ships. In times of naval war, the conversion of merchant ships to missile shooters is considered to be highly economical and a rapid route to a more lethal fleet.
By the merchant marine strength in terms of deadweight tonnage (DWT), the number of Indian flag carriers stands nowhere near the world’s top 15 countries, comprising Greece, China, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Germany, the Republic of Korea, Norway, the US, Bermuda, France, Taiwan, the UK, Denmark and Belgium. In this regard, the US position is somewhat misleading. Many US merchant marine companies follow the business practice of ‘Flag of Convenience’ by registering their vessels to another friendly country to avoid the strict US regulations and safety standards to reduce operating costs and bypass the laws that protect the wages and working conditions of mariners.
According to a government report, posted in December 2021, India has a merchant fleet of 1,491 seagoing ships with a total capacity of 13 million GT. It is ranked 18th with respect to the leading flag of registration by DWT and 19th by carrying capacity in DWT. And, it accounts for about 1.3 percent of the global DWT. In comparison, China’s share of the world merchant fleet is 15 percent
This clearly explains India’s poor status in global ocean control in terms of the strength of the country’s naval as well as merchant marine fleet and the growing Chinese naval influence in the region. China is out to exploit the situation to the maximum extent, setting up military bases, pushing countries to advance its maritime claims, and forcing strategic concessions from vulnerable countries. India needs to invest heavily in creating respectable naval and merchant navy capacities and capabilities. The earlier the government works on these lines, the better it is for the defence of the country and maritime neighbours in the region. (IPA )
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