At the end of 2024, and in the beginning of a New Year, it is useful to reflect on the year goneby, the highs and lows, successes and disappointments. Such an exercise helps to re-strategise our actions for the next year. Thinking people across the world do this in their respective domains, so do we in this column on India and the world.
To me, two events highlighted the past year – the re-election of Narendra Modi in India, early the year and the bouncing back of Donald Trump to the White House at the end of the year. Modi’s third consecutive term as the Prime Minister meant maintenance of continuity in India’s foreign policy and resumption of Trumpism in USA and the world, albeit with a bit of difference. One can trust Trump to be unpredictable, surprising the world with dramatic posturing and positions that he is capable of taking. For Modi and India’s foreign policy, it is sticking to the conventional strategy of ‘continuity and change’, although, admittedly, more change and less continuity. These are subjects for analysis in 2025.
However, the point cannot be missed that Trump’s return has already had and will have in coming days and months, significant impact on the Trump’s partners and detractors in the world. They have begun to re-adjust their policies. Trump may be considered unfortunate andprecise in his public articulations, but he is definite and decisive in his actions. Besides, the Trump-Modi inter-personal equations, supposed to be close, will determine India-US ties, especially with regard to China and Russia. Modi will be nudged to take an emphatic and unwavering position in regard to these two countries
To begin with, it was heartening to note that 2024 marked the rise of interest in India’s media, academy, and civil society in foreign policy. It has been an elite domain so far. The growth in the economy and in the ambition of a world role have persuaded the informed Indians that the country is in the cusp of breaking into the theatre of world power politics. In the past, the leadership was content in managing India and retaining their influence in the neighbourhood. In 2024, the leadership seems to have acquired a new confidence in venturing into the world. The Prime Minister and foreign minister openly expressed their readiness to mediate, if asked to, in both the dreadful and devastating wars in Ukraine and Gaza
New Delhi pursued its strategicautonomy in her response to the wars and other developments in world politics. It continued to expect the onset of multi-polarity as Ministry of External Affairsarticulated and government-supportingcommentators and ex-diplomats endorsed it.Both the strategy and assumption would be put to test in 2025 with Trumpism lurking around the world. The foreign policy has not been deeply debated in the public discourses in India, nor has it been a focus in the parliamentary debates. Although it is a non-partisan subject in many countries, in a democracy, it is expected to be contested by those disagreeing with the government line.
Despite Modi’s open support to Trump in 2019 in the American presidential elections, the ties between India and the US under Joe Biden remained normal, or rather improved. This is largely because of huge convergence of strategic interests between both countries. At the same time, Indian-Russian relations experienced a voluntary dilution, mainly due to the mess Russia has got into in unwisely invading Ukraine, and failing diplomatically to deal with the Global West.Russia may have fallen to a Chinese trap of making Moscow vulnerable and more dependable on Beijing. Modi managed to keep both the US and Russia on friendly terms. Although the stance of neutrality may not be viable in practical terms in the long run.
Despite several negotiations between the Chinese and Indian armies, New Delhi has not been successful in pushing Beijing back from the borders and containing its predatory approach in claiming Indian lands. Some patrolling and grazing rights in the friction areas of Depsangand Demchock have been retrieved. But the crux of the Chinese game is that it continues to occupy 38,000 km of Indian land. It continues to weave the ‘string of pearls’ around India.
One major success in the last year is the emergence of India as the authentic voice of Global South since hosting the G-20 Summit. In the same Summit in New Delhi, India incorporated the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) into the G-20, which was a major achievement. Last year, New Delhi hosted the third virtual Voice of Global South (VOGS) Summit in August. Prime Minister Modi hosted the Inaugural Leaders’ conference. Although BRICS provides an alternative to countries to global South, many countries look at India in taking such strategic decisions. India’s of blending democracy and development attracts many countries.
In the neighbourhood, it has been a mixed bag. Sri Lanka seems to be making up with India while partially shedding its China fascination. The new president Anura Dissanayake has a left background, but in the office, he is displaying pragmatism in pursuing his country’snational interest.His maiden overseas visit to New Delhi went off well. The Sri Lankan President publicly acknowledged India’s timely support and made relevant promises on regional security etc. He committed not to allow his country to be used against any ani-India activity.
Bangladesh gave quite a bit of tension with a political upheaval in the country that brought unprovoked violence against Hindu minorities and anti-India posturing by the current government. This shift took place following the flight of the former Prime Minister Seikh Hasina into India where she is being sheltered. President Mohamed Muizzu of Maldives mellowed towards India last year with two visits to New Delhi. He had begun his campaign for his election on an “India Out” plank. Nepal has not moved away much from India last year perhaps because of the instability of governments.
Modimade good impact in distant shores with strategic visits to countries like Poland, Nigeria, Brunei, and Kuwait. All these visits were after a long gap, 45 years after the visit of last Indian Prime Minister to Poland and 43 years to Kuwait. In both countries he got good reception. Kuwait honoured him with the highest civilian award and Poland raised the scope of deepening ties.
Another avoidable hiccup in 2024 was the verbal assault of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on India with his unsubstantiated charges in relation to the Khalistan supporters in his country. His dependence on a Sikh party for political survival reflected unhealthily in his policy towards India.
To conclude, India managed to hold its own in world politics, despite a few challenges and broke new grounds in certain areas and countries. The economy did not grow as it should have in keeping with New Delhi’s targets and aspirations, but did not do badly. All in all, 2024 has been a balanced year for India’s foreign policy.—INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
1 January 2025
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