Dr Rakesh Jasrotia
World Population Day, which draw attention on the urgency and importance of population issues, was started by the Council of the United Nations Development Programme in 1989, an outgrowth of the interest generated by the Day of Five Billion, which was observed on 11 July 1987.
Over 7.5 billion people inhabit the world as per the latest estimation. The world population increases by 100 million approximately every 14 months. The world population reached 7,400,000,000 on February 6, 2016; the world population reached 7,500,000,000 on April 24, 2017. However, it is estimated that world’s population is likely to stabilize by the end of next century around 10.1 billion. How reliable these long term projections about population are, is a moot question. The demographers themselves do not believe in long term population projections giving credence to the impact of fast changing socio-cultural and economic milieu upon fertility behavior.
India is the second most populated country in the world. According to the United Nations in July 2016 the population stood at 1,326,801,576. Though India was the first developing country to adopt a positive population policy in 1951-52, yet its achievements in controlling its number have been far from satisfactory. The population of India has increased more than three times since 1951. It has increased from 360 million in 1951 to 844 million in 1991, 1027 million in 2001and 1247 million in 2011. On an average, it has been increasing at a growth rate of 2 percent per annum. Such an unprecedented increase in the country’s population in last 5 to 7 decades due to large scale of developmental activities in different parts of the country, improving conditions of food supply, improving medical services all of which have been responsible for fall in the mortality rate and moreover liberalism of Indian government towards population policies.
Whereas India has missed almost all its targets to bring the rate of population growth under control, China’s ‘One Child Policy’ in 1978, has brought tremendous results. The policy claims to have prevented between 250 and 300 million births from 1978 to 2000 and 400 million births from 1979 to 2010.
On the other hand every year, India adds more people than any other nation in the world, and in fact the individual population of some of its states is equal to the total population of many countries. For example, Population of Uttar Pradesh almost equals to the population of Brazil. It, as per 2011 Population Census of India, has 190 million people and the growth rate is 16.16%. The population of the second most populous state Maharashtra, which has a growth rate of 9.42%, is equal to that of Mexico’s population. Bihar, with 8.07%, is the third most populous state in India and its population is more than Germany’s.
India is projected to be the world’s most populas country by 2025-26 surpassing China, its population reaching 1.7 billion by 2050. Thus, India is expected to become the first political entity in history to be home to more than 1.5 billion people. The Indian population reached the billion marks in 1998. India, with 1,349,636,578 (1.34 billion) people is the second most country in the world, while China is on the top with over 1,415,489,506 (1.41 billion) people. The figures show that India represents almost 17.85% of the world’s population, which means one out of six people on this planet live in India. With the population growth rate at 1.2%, India is predicted to have more than 1.53 billion people by the end of 2030.
India has experienced extraordinary population growth between 2001 and 2011. India added 181 million people to the world, slightly less than the entire population of Brazil. Much of India’s population increase has occurred among the poorest socio-economic percentile. Relatively socio-economically advanced Indian states had a fertility rate of less than 2.1 in 2009.But in poorer states like Bihar, fertility rates were nearer to 4.0.Population growth and rapid urbanization are combining to create huge challenges for Indian cities. The country’s cities are expected to grow from 340 million people in 2008 to a whopping 590 million in 2030.
There are states like Meghalaya Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Arunachal Pradesh, Utter Pradesh and Mizoram which have the decadal growth rate from 2001-2011 more than 20.0 percent. Only two states of India Kerala (4.9%) and Goa (8.2%) have less than 10% decadal growth rate. the only positive sign of of the 2011 census is that the negative growth rate of Nagaland-0.5%. The rapid growing population is not a good sign for the country because it disturbs the population resource relationship which is very necessary for the economic or over all development of the country.
Some of the reasons for India’s rapidly growing population are poverty, illiteracy, religion and caste, high fertility rate, rapid decline in death rates or mortality rates and immigration from Bangladesh and Nepal. Gender discrimination is a major reason for population growth. People keep giving birth to kids in order to have more sons than daughters.
There is no denying the fact that there are too many people now in India. However, the real problem is not the present large size of the population but the rate at which the size of population is increasing every year? India can progress if and only if the continuous and huge increase in population is held in check.
The major task before the planners is to identify the target areas as well as segments of society that are more critical and warrant immediate attention as far as the fertility control is concerned. Hence, it is imperative that some bold initiatives are taken before it is too late. Some State Governments like Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana have already come forward with ‘disincentives’ like withdrawal of government sponsored facilities or debarring a person with more than two children from contesting Panchayat election
Moreover, due to socio-structural differences, the much-publicised ‘Kerala model’ could hardly be replicated in other parts of the country and particularly in central and northern India. Hence, no one knows how to tackle the socio-cultural bottlenecks and political obstacles to family planning? It appears that if India cannot afford coercion to control birth rate it certainly can offer incentives to reward small and nuclear families and disincentives to punish the offenders. As of now, incentives like scholarship for single girl child and disincentives like debarring a person to contest Panchayat election do exist in the country. But we need many more of such incentives with a very sharp vision. And in order to do so, we need to be politically committed, administratively efficient and socially responsible for making an India that looks ahead of other. The need of controlling population is urgent and pressing so that the existing people may have an improved standard of living.
(The author is Asstt. Prof. Geography Govt Women College, Kathua.)
feedbackexcelsior@gmail.com
Follow our WhatsApp channel