Shreya Upadhyay
By making India the first destination of his maiden overseas trip after taking office, Chinese Premier Li Kequiang has talked a language no other visiting Beijing leader has spoken before. Emphasising the need for a more nuanced relationship with India, the issues ranged from trade to civil nuclear co-operation. But, whether New Delhi should be hopeful of better ties with Beijing remains to be seen.
Undoubtedly, the three-day visit presented an opportunity to calm troubled waters after the recent border spat and prepare a blueprint for cooperation on enhancing trust and avoiding future confrontations. Notwithstanding, New Delhi papered over differences and concentred on areas of convergence, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in a rare show of assertiveness, engaged in plain speak. On many issues beginning with the recent Chinese incursion in Ladakh, stand on Tibet, management of trans-boundary Rivers and trade imbalance.
Notably, ties had come under a cloud when Beijing stationed troops on a desolate but strategic plateau in Eastern Ladakh. The 23-days standoff revived distrust for China in strategic circles with some demanding stringent action. But diplomacy won the day as after several rounds of talks, New Delhi and Beijing decided to return to their original positions.
During Li’s visit, both sides agreed on encouraging their Special Representatives to push forward the negotiation process towards a mutually acceptable settlement. Specially, as the process has virtually been at a standstill despite 15 rounds of talks.
Pertinently, Beijing and its State-controlled media have also been playing down the border issue. The media not only portrayed Li’s visit as a new chapter in Sino-India ties but also published several editorial pieces rubbishing the “string of pearls” theory of encircling India just prior to Li’s visit. Also, in a recent article, the Chinese Ambassador to India Wei Wei stated that China had legitimate interest in the Indian Ocean and India lawful interest in the Pacific, both not contradictory with each other.
In fact, prior to his visit, Li said India and China “must shake hands” to make Asia an “engine of the world’s economy”. The discussions seemed to emphasise the larger strategic and global nature of the relationship touching subjects like civil nuclear co-operation, fighting sea piracy and non-traditional threats to maritime security.
Pertinently, despite Chinese assertiveness on regional issues, its mention of “core interest” has rung alarm bells. Add to this, a Chinese think tank recently published a ‘blue book’ which hinted at the possibility of India having a limited two-front war with Pakistan and China thereby fuelling mutual mistrust further.
The Chinese suspicion of India could be gauged from the fact that Li raised Tibet and made evident Chinese displeasure on India-based Tibetan exiles thumping up sentiments against his country during his visit. He also named the Dalai Lama as one of the key people promoting unrest in Tibet. However, Singh underscored India’s policy whereby the Dalai Lama was a respected spiritual leader who was not allowed to engage in political activities herein.
Another issue that has plagued ties is the management of trans-boundary Rivers thanks to China’s plans to build dams on the Brahmaputra. Even as New Delhi has time and again maintained that the proposal to construct dams at Dagu, Jiacha and Jiexu in Tibet would affect water flow to India, Beijing continues to assert that it was just run-of-the-river project that would not hold water.
Recall, the issue was also discussed during Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid’s recent China visit. While the two sides have agreed to strengthen cooperation and sharing data, a threadbare discussion is required as China plans for Yarlsung Tsangpo, which feeds into Siang and Brahmaputra in India.
No matter, these political and strategic infirmities, economic cooperation between the two Asian giants has accelerated in recent years. China is India’s largest trading partner which exports goods from Ganesha idols to mobile phones, laptops and other electronic products wherein bilateral trade has risen to nearly US$ 70 billion. Both sides have set a goal of US$100 billion trade by 2015. However, India’s trade deficit with China has grown to a $29 billion in 2012, in spite of of a drop in bilateral trade compared to 2011.
Besides, Li’s visit was largely business oriented to boost bilateral trade and more access to Indian goods, spelling good news for Indian companies especially IT and pharmaceutical firms who are trying for a greater foothold in the Chinese market. Towards that end, the Chinese Premier came with a large business delegation, addressed a gathering of CEOs from both countries to tackle the trade deficit issue. He also visited Tata Consultancy Services as it has had some success in cracking the Chinese market.
Undeniably, both Governments have put bilateral relations on the top burner. Whereby, Li’s visit saw several agreements being signed, on Kailash Mansarovar, micro-irrigation, urban waste water management and bovine meat exports to China.
Yet, several areas of discord continue to haunt ties. One, the joint statement issued during Li’s visit, did not include India’s affirmation of One-China principle, (Tibet and Taiwan as Chinese territories), a continuation of New Delhi’s “retaliation” 2010 policy when Beijing issued stapled visas to travellers from Jammu and Kashmir. Till date China’s position on Kashmir remains vague, while India’s efforts to strengthen its position on terrorism in the region have failed to take constructive shape because of Beijing’s close ties with Islamabad.
Needless to say, the Pakistan factor has an important bearing on India-China relations. Given that Li flew to Islamabad from New Delhi, whereby both sides signed another accord on development of Gwadar port. There is a possibility of the port being converted to a naval base in future. Indeed, both countries are working on naval and nuclear cooperation which are set to enter an advanced stage, enough to make New Delhi feverish. Whereby, Chinese naval arms transfers to Pakistan have acquired new intensity and are creating a basis for interoperability between the two navies.
Clearly, Sino-India talks on shared regional and global interest cannot gloss over China’s alliance with Pakistan and position on several geo-political issues. More immediately, Beijing has opposed India’s integration with the global nuclear order on several forums and is determined to ensure Pakistan’s nuclear parity with India. There is no gainsaying that China has been pursuing its growing stakes in the Indian Ocean rapidly. In this scenario India too needs to work towards maintaining its core interests. INFA
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