By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Champai Soren’s changing of his political loyalty form Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) to BJP, as it has been reported that he will join BJP on August 30, is certainly a significant development before the Vidhan Sabha election due by the end of this year. BJP is now in upbeat mood while JMM is trying to put its house in order to prevent any major political loss. Though in the current ground level political scenario, it would be only a minor gain for BJP, it has brought an urgent need before INDIA bloc to reframe its political strategy if it wants to retain its power in the state.
Champai Soren, who is also called Kolhan Tiger, has felt a humiliation after he had to hand over the seat of Chief Minister of Jharkhand to Hemant Soren again on July 4, 2024, who came out of jail after procuring bail in an ED case. Before his arrest, Hemant Soren had handed over the seat of Chief Minister to Champai Soren on February 2, 2024 with a clear understanding that Champai should rule in his absence. All India Bloc partners have endorsed the arrangement, though it was criticized on the ground that the post of Chief Minister was treated as personal property. Common people though do not find anything wrong in it and hence in terms of support, JMM supporters are by and large with the party, and not supporting the Champai Soren’s move of shifting loyalties to the BJP.
Additionally, as it has been reported, only Champai Soren and his son are to join BJP. There is no report that their supporters in JMM rank and file are also shifting their loyalties to BJP along with Champai Soren, though had been considerable influence in the Kolhan region where there are 14 Vidhan Sabha Constituencies. Out of these 9 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, one is reserved for Scheduled Caste and only 4 are general seats.
In the 2019 Vidhan Sabha election, JMM had won 30 seats in Jharkhand out of which 11 seats were from Kohan. JMM had bagged 8 of the 9 ST seats, and the lone SC seat. It is precisely due to this reason BJP is upbeat on its perceived considerable gain from the region after the revolt in JMM and shifting of loyalty by Kolhan Tiger, especially just before election.
However, the BJP can’t be comfortable in the Kolhan region, since in the 2019 Vidhan Sabha election, the party could win no seat from the region. The Congress, the major INDIA bloc ally, had won two seats including one ST seat. Even BJP’s chief minister Raghubar Das had lost the 14th seat to a rebel BJP leader and independent Saryu Roy. Therefore, a little improvement on account of Kolhan Tiger’s shifting loyalty to BJP, cannot improve BJP’s tally much from zero it had won in the last Vidhan Sabha election. There is also another factor that Champai Soren does not have all-Jharkhand influence among voters, which may not work in favour of the BJP in other regions.
It must be noted that Lok Sabha Election 2024 was held while JMM’s Executive President Hemant Soren was in jail. BJP had imagined that it would help them in the state in winning more seats or at least retaining those that the party had won in Lok Sabha election 2019. However, to much frustration of the BJP, the party lost 3 seats out of 11 it had won in 2019, and its share of votes declined by 7 per cent to 44.60 per cent. Its ally AJSU maintained its number of won seat at 1, but it also suffered a loss of erosion in its vote share by 1.78 per cent. It is the real challenge for BJP in Jharkhand where a little gain by switching over of JMM leader Champai Soren to BJP would not be able to reverse the decline.
Nevertheless, INDIA bloc has also to deal with certain permutation and combination within the bloc given the contrasting result of Lok Sabha Election 2024, as far as leads in the Vidhan Sabha segments are concerned. Out of 81 Vidhan Sabha segments BJP had gained lead in 47 against its strength of 26 in the current Vidhan Sabha. It is a hope for BJP and a headache for JMM in particular and INDIA bloc in general. BJP’s ally AJSU had also gained lead in 5 assembly segments as against its current 3 seats. BJP’s hopes rest on this.
JMM has 30 seats in the Vidhan Sabha, but Lok Sabha election 2024 shows that it has gained lead only in the 15 Vidhan Sabha segments. Here lies the real challenge for the JMM,.. JMM had won 3 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 as against only 1 in 2019 with a rise in votes share by 2.90 per cent to 14.60 per cent.
As for the Congress, the party had won 2 Lok Sabha seats (one more than in 2019) and bagged 19.19 per cent of vote share with an increase of 3.39 per cent. Even though, the party is facing a real challenge on account of its position in the Vidhan Sabha segments. Congress has 17 seat is the Vidhan Sabha but it could gain lead in only 15 segments in the Lok Sabha election 2024.
INDIA bloc, therefore, needs to reframe its political strategy as soon as possible before the Vidhan Sabha election, and can’t afford to be optimistic only on the basis of decline in seats and vote share of the BJP in the Lok Sabha election 2024. (IPA Service)
Follow our WhatsApp channel
