Dr.Banarsi Lal and Dr.Shahid Ahamad
Agriculture plays an immense role in ensuring food and livelihood security and it accounts for a significant share (14%) of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It engages around two-thirds of the population in gainful employment. Many industries such as food, milk processing, sugar, textiles, jute etc. depend on agricultural production. As agriculture is having its close linkages with other economic sectors so agricultural growth has a multiplier effect on the entire national economy. Presently, the threat of climate change poses a serious challenge for sustainable agricultural growth. This threat is compounded due to accumulated greenhouse gases emissions in the atmosphere, anthropogenically generated through long-term intensive industrial growth and high consumption lifestyles. As the international community is making strenuous efforts to deal with this threat, India needs to develop a strategy for adapting to climate change and its variability in order to ensure ecological sustainability. A resilient agricultural production system is required to sustain productivity in the event of extreme climatic variability. The Indian farmers have evolved many coping mechanisms over the years but these have been fallen short of an effective response strategy in dealing with recurrent and intense forms of extreme climatic events on the one hand and gradual changes in climate like rise in surface temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, increase in evapo-transpiration rates and degrading soil moisture conditions on the other. The need of the hour is, therefore, to synergise modern agricultural technologies with the indigenous technical knowledge of the farmers to enhance the resilience of the Indian agriculture to climate change.
Climate Change refers to the statistical variations in the properties of the climate system such as changes in temperatures, rainfall etc. due to natural or human causes over a long period of time. Climate change drastically alters the distribution and quality of natural resources thus adversely affecting the livelihood security of the people. In order to sustain agricultural growth to mitigate food requirements, policies and strategies need re-orientation with appropriate feedback mechanisms that are embedded in the policy spectrum for not only meeting food grain and buffer stock requirements but also to ensure livelihood security in times of catastrophic incidents. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the adverse impact of climate change due to rising temperatures and extreme weather events would be on the agricultural production. Consistent warming trends and more frequent and intense extreme weather events are being observed across India in the recent decades. The catastrophe of flash floods and land sliding in Jammu and Kashmir on 6th September, 2014 is the best example of climate change. Several areas such as coastal areas, Indo-Gangetic plains and the drought and flood prone regions of the country have been identified as risk prone due to the impacts of climate change. Agricultural crops, livestock, fresh water and the marine ecosystem all are likely to be affected due to change in climate. Such climatic fluctuations adversely affect agricultural sustainability resulting in unforeseen situational shortages which could also impact other economic sectors. Vulnerability of India in the event of climate change is more pronounced due to its ever increasing dependency on agriculture, excessive pressure on natural resources and poor management mechanisms. The warming trend in India over the past 100 years (1901-2000) is estimated to be 0.4 degree C. The projected impact of further warming is likely to aggravate yield fluctuations of many crops. While in the short- run the impact may not be severe but most crops are expected to decline in yield after 2020. A one degree Celsius rise in mean temperature would likely to affect wheat yield in the heartland of green revolution. Negative impact on yield of wheat and paddy in certain parts of India due to rise in temperatures, increase in water stress and reduction in the number of rainy days has been observed. Parts of western Rajasthan, southern Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Northern Karnataka, Northern Andhra Pradesh, and Southern Bihar are expected to be more vulnerable in times of extreme climatic events. It is estimated that irrigation requirements in arid and semiarid regions would likely to increase by 10% for every 1 degree rise in temperature. Rise in sea level would also likely to have adverse effects on the livelihood of fishermen. The effect can even be more detrimental if no adaptation is taken. The negative impact on agricultural production will imply significant percentage fall in the annual GDP and its fallout for livelihood security in the agricultural sector and other economic sectors. As the short term mitigation measures demand immediate attention, the complexities of abiotic stress on crops and livestock in the long term would require intensive research to effectively address the adaptation processes required for making our production systems resilient to climate change.
Climate change alters the natural balance of local and global ecosystems and infringes on human settlements. It is expected that vulnerable groups such as poor will face food insecurity, loss of livelihood, hardships due to environmental change and extreme climatic events such as drought, floods, storms, cyclones and land sliding. The overall impact of climate change on our food production systems and economy is expected to be high as the agriculture and its allied sectors still accounts for a large share of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Although agriculture contribution to GDP is falling, it still accounts for a significant share. For the States like Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, the percentage share of agriculture and allied activities in state domestic product is more than 30 percent. The Indian agriculture now faces the challenge of ensuring food security amidst constraints such as stagnating net sown area, deterioration of land quality, reduction in per capita land availability etc. As a result, agricultural productivity has been witnessing stagnation in recent years. Besides, issues such as competing demand for water in the context of changing demographics and its various end uses, further aggravates the degree of risks in the agriculture sector. These have considerable implications for food and livelihood security and as agriculture production being risk prone, may lead to migration from rural to urban areas. Fostering rapid, sustainable and broad-based growth in agriculture is thus a key priority keeping in mind the overall socio-economic development trajectory of the country, especially in the light of existing vulnerabilities that relate to a shrinking land resource base, additional stresses arising from the non-agricultural sector and issues emerging due to changing climate. This necessitates a strategic approach with a renewed vision and redefined focus.
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