How the BJP wins

Col J P Singh
Dreams of ‘achhe din’, in the rural countryside besides growth optimism in the urban economic base turned 2014 election campaign into Modi Wave and gave BJP a thumping mandate. Over three years of Modi Govt have gone past. Looking around and listening to the people one sees the urban fortress crumbling under the weight of sluggish economy and the rural India turning gloomy. The agrarian sector is stressed. The growth optimism is waning. After the initial feel good mood, a feel bad factor is setting in the society which is turning out to be a cause of concern for the BJP leadership.  Is India losing hope of ‘achhe din’ ?
Post note-ban and GST roll out, business did not follow the projected growth trajectory. Industrial growth went into a downward spiral. GDP growth dripped to a three year’s low at 5.7%. Since the aftershocks were graver than expected, Govt faced severe criticism from various quarters. Sensing the criticality, Mr. Yashwant Sinha, a former finance minister, wrote an article, published in Indian Express on 27 September 2017, stating that ‘PM claims he has seen poverty from close quarters. His finance minister is working overtime to make sure that all Indians see it from equally close quarters’. Blaming the Govt for its failure, he said, “economies are destroyed more easily than they are built”. Other BJP stalwarts, Arun Shourie & Subramanian Swamy have also been critical of the govt economic policy. Similar other articles and media discourse also share a common arithmetic trajectory ie use of statistics to settle personal scores. The opposition sees it as an opportunity for 2019 election. Economics has started casting shadow on the politics. When criticism is from within, the problem must be grave. Sharad Yadav, the estranged JD(U) leader, has announced formation of a Bihar type Maha-Gathbandan in the coming elections. That compounds the challenges for the BJP.
Modi inherited a crippled economy with three years of successive GDP decline, six years of rising inflation, record current account deficit, fiscal profligacy, decades of crony capitalism and piggy backing public sector banks inflicting them plethora of NPAs. If economy was to be revived, harsh decisions, such as demonetisation, had to be taken. Modi not only knew what India needs to become an economic power, but willingly enforced them. He is the only politician so far who has unleashed unprecedented structural reforms in the economy by choice and not compulsion. Demonetisation is one such reform. Even though it caused disruptions in the growth, he rolled out GST soon after it which compounded the growth, but he did it. Compared to UPA 2, today the economy is in a better health and better prepared to deliver a higher rate of growth. RBI, IMF and World Bank see a silver lining in the current pessimism. Prashant Jha, in his book “How the BJP Wins’ has predicted BJP victory in 2019 despite the pessimism being fuelled by the opposition country wide attributing the victory to various factors such as BJP’s formidable election machinery and TINA. Modi magic has been aptly described by Prashant Jha. What are the secrets behind BJP wining elections; why demonetisation did not harm BJP in UP election; why did Amit Shah’s election mathematics failed in Bihar; how RSS cadre helps BJP during elections and does the communal frenzy actually gets votes, are described in the book including how is the party growing in the North-East and South.
Looking at various fundamentals of the economy, foreign reserves are at a record level of 400 billion, FDI today stands 160 billion and steadily increasing, inflation is low, Govt expenditure is following a fiscal discipline after a reckless profligate spending, per capita income has increased and the GDP is expected to grow in the coming quarters. The battle against corruption is on. Lalus, Mallya, Dinakaran and Hwala Operators are being chased vigorously. ‘Industrial growth has started showing recovery though challenges do remain in job creation but given the time, the economy will respond to the job market’, is the discourse on the other front.
Media led pessimism is based on two/three quarters of GDP growth whereas Prashant Jha’s optimism is based on extensive study of BJP election strategies, contact with seasoned observers, veteran politicians, local leaders/workers, RSS cadre, the voters and ground realities. Modi’s great skill, the book suggests, lies in his ability to change the media narrative with the power of his astute management and political messaging. Modi is an apt politician. He understands the public mood. He is going to make coming elections dramatic, perhaps ‘rich versus poor and ‘honest versus the corrupt’. Publicly calling Himachal Pradesh Govt, going to polls on 9 November, ‘a Zamanti Sarkar’ and  whole Congress on ‘Zamanat’; he refreshed public memories.
Why BJP wins is because it has reinvented itself and adopted bottom upwards approach. Amit Shah’s organisational abilities and his indefatigable energy has galvanized the party worker. He has been touring India continuously and has re-structured party networks from state to the village levels, met millions of workers, intellectuals, office-bearers, instructed and cautioned the leaders and punished the non-performers. As a result BJP’s political base is rapidly expanding. BJP today is pan-India rather than urban party of the past. Modi is seen as ‘garibon ka neta’ which negates Rahul Gandhi’s blame of ‘suit-boot ki sarkar’. By himself declaring demonetization, Modi gave a message that he was man of action and working for the poor and deprived. Swachh Bharat, Ujjwala and Saubhagya are seen delivering on the ground. These initiatives are great contribution to the social and economic structure of the society. In first three years, the govt has integrated humanism in every scheme. 29 crore brought to the mainstream of banking through Jan-Dhan scheme, 2.8 crore poor women given LPG connections and inflation has been brought down to 4.5% from 9.3% and keeping the food prices low are such steps. With demonetisation in 2016, GST roll out in 2017, last three years of relentless efforts in the ‘ease of doing business’, power sector reforms, digitalization, accelerated infrastructure development, drive against black money and corruption and many reforms have provided a spring board for the economic jump. Modi is building the nation by killing the termite from the very foundation of the economy.
Modi’s mass appeal is his biggest asset and a secret of BJP win. Thomas Edison invented light bulb 140 years ago but women in 4 crore households compulsorily cooked evening meals before darkness. Modi gave them electric bulbs and cooking gas. Relieving Muslim women from the scourge of triple talaq is a great step to their welfare and empowerment. Modi is more apt than others in transforming India. His welfare schemes are extensive and path breaking. As a result 80% of India is under BJP rule today.
On the face of it, politically and economically, predictions favour BJP in the coming elections. Veteran politician Arun Shourie is on record having said that biggest election agent of Modi is Rahul Gandhi since he simply compels people to vote for BJP. To a common man Modi represents the last very best hope to revive economy to its fullest potential. Rahul Gandhi hasn’t restored such confidence across the nation.
So far as J&K is concerned, difficult to predict 2021 outcome but can’t resist mentioning a perceived strong positive. If BJP had not joined the coalition, NC and Congress would have made the Govt. They had no MP in Lok Sabha. J&K would have not have been a partner in Central rule, thus alienated more. There would have been tensions. Development would have been a casualty. It is to Modi’s credit that the mandate was respected and coalition formed with an ideologically opponent ally thereby extending development benefits to the state. Electorate will certainly keep it in mind while voting in the next election besides steps taken to restore normalcy in the Valley.
BJP will win if Modi wins. Modi will win if we vote for him. We will vote for him if he delivers. He will deliver because he is working hard and is honest. If he doesn’t transform India and makes our lives easier, none else will be able to do it for several generations. Hence he needs to win 2019 to deliver on his promise of ‘achhe din’.
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