Bajpai
The recent three hour long meeting of General Ashfak Parvez Kayani, the hawkish Pakistani Army Chief with newly elected third time to be Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif, in which Kayani has reportedly advised Navaz that he should go slow on his desire to improve relations with India and should be very cautious in his approach, has put paid to the euphoria which had generated in both the countries on Nawaz Sharif genuine intentions of having good relations with India. The big question is will Navaz be able to defy his Army and Jehadis?
The biggest hurdle to good Indo-Pak relations have been Pakistani Army , its Intelligence agency ISI and the anti India jehadi organizations like Lashkar-e-Toiba(L-e-T) and Jaish-e-Mohammad who are basically the creations of Pakistani Army only. Pakistani Army has picked up the Kashmir cause because it knows that India will never let go Kashmir and it will be impossible to take over Kashmir by force. So by harping on Kashmir and keeping this issue alive Pakistani Army will always continue enjoying the good will of people of Pakistan and retain its pre-eminent position in the country. Continuance of sour relations with India is do or die issue for Pakistani Army. It is this issue which has allowed Pakistani Army to rule Pakistan for more than two decades. This has also helped Pakistani Army to have a 20 billion dollar business empire running in Pakistan (Book -Military Incorporation by Ayesha Siddiqua).Today 70 percent of real state business in Pakistan is owned by serving and retired Pakistani Army officers. All this has been made possible for them thanks to Indian bogey. Surely Pakistani Army will not let go all this just because Nawaz Sharif wants good elations with India.
It was the Pakistani Army under the leadership of General Parvez Musharraf who had staged a coup against Nawaz Sharif immediately after Pakistani Army’s botched operations in Kargil in 1999. Nawaz Sharif was jailed and could have been hanged, as was done by the Army to Bhutto, on trumped up charges but for Saudi Arabia who intervened on behalf of Nawaz Sharif. was then exiled to Saudi Arabia. For 14 long years Nawaz Sharif had to cool his heels, thanks to Pakistani Army. It is unlikely that Nawaz will forget all this. No wonder the first assertion of Nawaz Sharif after his getting elected this time was that his Government will have primacy and Army will do the job what has been laid down for it in the constitution.
It is not that Nawaz sat under the Bodhi tree and got the divine diction that he should have good relations with India. Currently it is a dire necessity for Nawaz Sharif and his Government. Shrewd business man that he is, Nawaz realizes that he will have to keep his election promises to the people of Pakistan of providing uninterrupted power supply to an electricity starved country as also bring down spiraling inflation in food items. This is only possible if trade ties with India are improved. He also knows that only way he can keep Army off his back is to keep Army itself destabilized. That is why he has announced that he will carry out a probe on Kargil operations as also 26/11 Mumbai terror strike and will not allow any terror operation from Pakistani soil against India. He understands that as soon as he moves ahead in repairing relations with India, Pakistani Army will use jehadis in its employ to launch a terror strike against India there by bringing the peace process to a stand still. Currently Pakistani Army is not in a position to carry out a coup against his Government, especially after the mandate he has got from people of Pakistan. He also knows that he can only be able to win the trust of people and keep Army at bay is by delivering on his promises.
China is the military and economic mentor of Pakistan. China finds Pakistan so irresistible because it considers Pakistan as a low cost option to keep India confined to South Asia only. China has made large investments in Pakistani military and their mutual relations are very good. China will not allow this investment in Pakistan to go waste by Pakistan having good relations with India.
Nawaz Sharif and is party PML (Navaz) enjoys the reputation of right of centre party having good relations with jehadi organizations like L-e-T, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and anti Shia Sipah-e- Sahiba. Even Tehrik-e -Taliban Pakistan, which is fighting Pakistani Army, is ready to have peace talks with Nawaz Sharif. So it is quite possible that Nawaz Sharif may be able to wean away these terror organizations from the Army at least till Afghan issue gets decided and we in India may have comparative peace in the near future. Pakistani judiciary whom Nawaz had annoyed earlier is another stumbling block for him. General Kayani the current Army Chief of Pakistan, a hand picked man of Gen Parvez Muharraf and Pakistani Chief Justice Iftikar Chaudhary are both retiring by end of this year. So for at least next six months till these two gentlemen are replaced by new incumbents, to expect betterment of Indo-Pak relations is being naïve. After that it is possible that Nawaz Sharif will make some tentative moves. As for India, best course of action will be to respond positively to the gestures of Nawaz Sharif without going overboard. Mantra should be Trust but Verify at the same time keep our powder dry and keep fingers crossed.
(The author is former Brigadier)
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