NEW DELHI, Apr 29 : Exit polls for the high-stakes Assembly elections across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry on Wednesday revealed a politically uneven landscape, with West Bengal emerging as the most fiercely contested and unpredictable battleground, even as clearer and more consistent mandates appeared to take shape in the other four states.
In West Bengal (294 seats), the high-voltage contest between the Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party has produced sharply divergent projections across agencies, underscoring both the intensity of the campaign and the deep polarisation among voters.
Among the major pollsters, Axis My India projected a comfortable victory for the TMC, estimating 177-187 seats, while placing the BJP at 142-171 seats, suggesting a strong but ultimately short challenge. In stark contrast, a BJP internal survey indicated a potential upset, projecting the party at around 174 seats and the TMC at about 110, pointing towards a possible regime change.
Adding to the fractured picture, P-MARQ (P Matrize) gave the BJP an edge with 146-161 seats, while projecting the TMC at 120-140. JVC also pointed to a BJP advantage, forecasting 138-159 seats for the party and 131-152 for the TMC, suggesting a tight and possibly knife-edge finish. Meanwhile, Poll Diary placed the BJP in a strong position with 142-171 seats, while the TMC was seen trailing at 99-127.
This unusually wide spread-from a clear TMC majority to a possible BJP victory-makes West Bengal the most volatile and closely watched contest of this election cycle, echoing past instances where exit polls struggled to capture the final outcome. The projections reflect a deeply divided electorate, with the TMC holding its ground in rural and minority-dominated regions, while the BJP continues to expand its footprint in urban centres and border districts, leaving several constituencies too close to call.
In contrast, the electoral picture outside Bengal appears far more settled.
In Tamil Nadu (234 seats), exit polls show near-unanimity in projecting a decisive victory for the DMK-led alliance, with estimates consistently placing it in the 150-180 seat range, comfortably ahead of the AIADMK-led alliance at 50-80 seats. The numbers point to a clear mandate and continuity, with minimal variation across agencies.
In Kerala (140 seats), projections suggest a possible political shift, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) appearing poised for a comeback after a decade. The Axis My India exit poll estimates the UDF at 78-90 seats, well above the majority mark, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected at 49-62 seats. The BJP-led NDA is expected to remain marginal with 0-3 seats.
In Assam (126 seats), projections are largely aligned, indicating a clear return of the BJP-led NDA. Axis My India has placed the NDA at 88-100 seats and the Congress-led alliance at 24-36, while other agencies broadly estimate the NDA in the 75-100 seat range against 25-50 for the opposition, pointing to a comfortable majority and reaffirming incumbent strength.
In Puducherry (30 seats), exit polls indicate a fragmented but NDA-leaning outcome, with most projections giving the alliance 16-22 seats, compared to 8-14 for the Congress-DMK bloc. Smaller players and independents, though marginal, could still influence the final outcome in a closely contested Assembly.
Taken together, the exit polls suggest a multi-layered national verdict shaped by strong regional dynamics-with the TMC holding ground but under pressure in Bengal, the DMK firmly in command in Tamil Nadu, Kerala tilting towards a UDF resurgence, and the BJP-led NDA consolidating its position in Assam while maintaining an advantage in Puducherry.
Yet, it is West Bengal that stands apart, with sharply conflicting projections making it the epicentre of uncertainty and the defining story of these elections. With counting scheduled on May 4, the exit polls remain only an early indicator-and if past trends are any guide, the final verdict, particularly in Bengal, could still defy even the most confident projections.
(UNI)
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