Dr Ashwani Mahajan
The recent agreement between the US and China on climate change, has presented mammoth challenge for the rest of the world, especially the developing world. Under the agreement, the US has agreed to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases by 26 to 28 percent by the year 2025. On the other hand, China has agreed to peak its emissions by the year 2030, and thereafter will start receding its emissions. Earlier in 2009, at United Nations Framework Convention on Climate (UNFCCC) held at Copenhagen, United States had agreed to reduce their emissions by 17 percent by 2020, from 2005 levels. This means that according to the agreement with China, United States will reduce its emissions between 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent between 2020 and 2025.
The agreement between the US and China in itself is a exceptional agreement, as so far, environment and climate change have been dealt in multilateral agreements, and never two countries have clinched a bilateral deal. Environment has been the subject matter of multilateral negotiations, because toxic gas emissions and global warming affect the whole globe and not any one or two countries or group of countries. So far developing countries have shown complete solidarity, while dealing with United States and other developed countries on the environment issues. India and China have always argued that it has to meet development aspirations of their people, so they should have no obligation to reduce emissions for the time being, and their argument was well received in the Kyoto Protocol. However, the treaty between China and the United States has definitely affected the solidarity of the developing countries.
Increasing pollution and global warming has become a reality today. Long summers, deficient and sometimes excessive rains, devastating floods etc. have become a major threat to the humanity today. Pollution in cities has increased so much that is difficult to breathe in the fresh air and day is not far when people may start using oxygen to breathe. Earth’s average temperature has increased by 0.6 degrees Celsius by now since 1800 and by the year 2100 it can rise up to 20 degrees. Due to rising temperature sea level has increased by10 to 20 centimeters and it may further increase by 40 centimeters by 2100.
Greenhouse gases are merely one per cent of the environment; however, they make a wrapper around the earth. Human activities lead to emission of more and more greenhouse gases, which thickens this cover. Burning of coal, oil and natural gas leads to emission of carbon dioxide.
UN initiative
UN took the initiative and made efforts toward coping with the menace, which ultimately resulted in Kyoto protocol, which was adopted unanimously in 1997. According to the agreement so reached at Kyoto (Japan), there was a target to reduce combined emissions to 5 percent below 1990 level. However, different member countries were given different target ranging from -8 percent to +10 percent. Many developing nations like China, India and Brazil were excluded for the first commitment period, as they argued that such commitment would adversely affect their development efforts.
According to the Doha Declaration, European countries proposed to reduce their emissions further up to 2020, and extended their Kyoto commitment up to 2020. However, draft of treaty to extend Kyoto Protocol on the reduction of emission levels, would be prepared in yet another environmental conference to be held in Paris in December 2015.
US versus Rest of the World
It is important to note that the United States had come out of the Kyoto Protocol in 2001. It was argued that with this treaty, the economic interests of USA would be hurt. Notwithstanding the argument of developing countries, especially India and China they still have a low level of per capita emissions; USA’s argument is that the member states should bring down their total emissions. This would mean that India, China, Brazil and other developing countries must reduce their total emissions levels. But developing countries argued that this type of arrangement may doom their development aspirations.
Interestingly, China currently accounts for 29 percent of world’s emissions of greenhouse gases, while the United States is 15 percent and India accounts for only 6 percent. India has been arguing that any international treaty should be based on per capita emissions than the total emissions, because China’s per capita emission of carbon dioxide is 6.2 tons, while in United States it is 17.6 tons. India’s carbon dioxide emissions oxide is only 1.7 tons per capita.
Cracks Appearing Among Developing Countries
In view of the environmental issues there are three types of countries. Maldives, Bangladesh etc. are the countries which are low lying and impact of rise in the sea level will be first on these countries as parts of these countries may submerged in the sea. They want the world to reduce at any cost. Second set of countries comprise of Africa, Latin America etc., who are not so directly affected, however they want economic aid to get rid of the menace of excessive emissions to adopt new technology for reduction in emissions. Third set of countries are those which are aspiring for growth, such as India and China, who are not willing to immediately agree to reduce emissions, as the same may jeopardise their developmental efforts. That is why, smelling the possibility of treaty between China and the United States, India had disassociated from China’s stand about a week before the agreement.
The reality is that in all previous conclaves, India and China were placed in the same category. Now when China has reached an agreement with USA, India may also come under pressure to agree to reduce emissions. European countries, which are in any case in favor of environmental treaty, may try to take advantage of the new situation. India, where the efforts of industrialisation and development have just taken off, the new situation may put us in an awkward position. Some people also believe that this agreement between USA and China may be a part of Chinese diplomacy to curb India’s industrialisation prospects. India will have to tread very cautiously in the future in the forthcoming United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), so that our industrial growth prospects are not hampered, while keeping its global commitment to reduce emission levels intact.
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