Dr Ganesh Malhotra
China frustrated by India’s growing clout in international politics, assertive leadership postures and closeness with USA is trying to pose aggressive actions at the tri-junction between India, Tibet and Bhutan, in the Doklam plateau of the Chumbi Valley. This can be seen as grave security and diplomatic threat to India. It shows China’s intent to embark on its long-term expansionist plans in this part of Asia but India is apparent challenge for China.
China has as usual its policy trying hard to claim the Doklam plateau that falls in west Bhutan and adjoins the Chinese-controlled Chumbi Valley of Tibet. Chumbi Valley separates Sikkim from Bhutan and hangs like a dagger over the vulnerable Chicken’s Neck, or Siliguri Corridor, that connects North East India with the rest of the country. Chumbi Valley being very narrow cannot accommodate the number of troops and military hardware China would require either in case of an offensive, or to deter India militarily.
Geographically Chinese troops in Chumbi Valley suffer from a serious strategic constraint since the ridge lines along the Valley fall in Bhutan and Sikkim. Indian troops have a clear tactical advantage there. Moreover India provides military muscle to Bhutan and the Indian Army has a strong presence in that country through the IMTRAT (Indian Military Training Team) units stationed in Bhutan. Thus, Indian troops pose a serious threat to the Chinese not only from Sikkim but also from Bhutan, where they are stationed.
It is part of China’s grand design framed by Mao called FIVE FINGER POLICY. Tibet being China’s right palm whose five fingers are Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh. The palm is ineffective without the fingers, and so it is necessary to liberate the five fingers and rejoin them with the palm.
China is frustrated over Indian influence over Bhutan. China is trying hard to establish direct diplomatic relations but till it hasn’t got any success. China is desperate to take Bhutan away from India through massive financial aid and development projects.
China has been successful in making inroads in India’s influence over Nepal. Large sections of the political establishment Kathmandu are now openly pro-China and deeply anti-India. China has been pouring in financial and material aid to Nepal. But still India has strong geographic and cultural upper hand in this Himalayan State.
This practice of China is going to continue in future also but India has many other legitimate tools and ways to compel China to toe the line of India. This is to be done in serious manner. The assertion can be made by different ways.
Trade ties should be reviewed:
India is largest market for Chinese goods. India-China trade deficit is tilted towards China. It is around Seven times more in terms of imports as compared to export. China has already proved as using unfair trade practices as well using environmental hazardous materials in its products. It has already brought itself a bad name in African and Latin American markets. Same is the position of Chinese products as well as trade practices in Indian market. Although under WTO norms trade ban cannot be imposed but still genuine issues health, environmental and trade practices can be taken well under Indian laws.
The campaign for boycotting Chinese goods can be undertaken and promoted at non-official and civil society level. It has to be undertaken after careful preparation, in a comprehensive manner.
India is a large market for China. When all other markets are drying up, China sorely needs big, stable and growing markets. India being the third largest economy in the world in PPP terms and the fastest growing economy is particularly attractive for China.
India needs to significantly and quickly enhance its manufacturing prowess and capabilities, both in quality as well as competitiveness. Many national economic initiatives launched by the Government like GST, Make in India, Skill India, Digital India, Smart Cities, Swachh Bharat are steps in the right direction. They however need to be pursued and implemented with single-minded determination.
All the profits earned by China by exports to India are used to launch offensive against India whether in the shape of encirclement policies, CPEC or other postures along the borders.
To plug in the CPEC points:
China is carrying out its ambitious project of connectivity as well as increasing its influence in South Asia in the shape of China-Pakistan economic corridor. This is part of ugly and unholy nexus between China and Pakistan. This corridor passes through the strategically important region of Gilgit-Baltistan. This region is part of J&K which India considers as part of it through resolution of Parliament. A resistance movement is going on this region against the atrocities of Pakistan and leasing out of their territory to China accruing no benefits to locals. They have many other issues like fundamental rights, demographic changes by Pakistan as well revocation of State subject law etc etc. India can legitimately raise the issues of this region as well can pressure on China and Pakistan at various International forums for the vacation of this area. PM Modi raised the issue of GB during Independence Day address. This acted as morale booster for various groups in this region. China was compelled to soften its stand on CPEC and this project is running rough after these happenings. Another point is Balochistan which is also undergoing resistance movement against Pakistan. The people of Balochistan are also looking towards India for moral support in their freedom struggle. India needs to assert and Balochistan can be another Bangladesh. This will have direct impact on Pakistan but also cutting the size of China and countering its ugly plans of encirclement of India.
India has already opted out of OBOR, ambitious project of China. OBOR is not successful without CPEC. So squeezing the CPEC at its very beginning will be death blow to OBOR and expansionist policies of China.
Tibet:
China’s frustration and India’s stand over Tibetan leader Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh indicated that the Buddhist icon and the Tibet issue might provide some leverage to India in its relation with giant neighbour.
The Dalai Lama has expectedly steered clear of political positions, saying there is nothing new in china’s objections to his visit. Yet, the sharp language with China warning to bilateral ties should be read with its increasing testiness over the prominence being given to the Dalai Lama.
Indian officials argue that the Dalai Lama is not doing anything new from his usual activities and his proposed visit to Arunachal Pradesh and the famous Tawang monastery is a result of the long-standing demand of his followers. But they point out that if this really agitates China, then it also reveals a pressure point that can come handy in interactions at the political and diplomatic level.
China remains fully in control of the Tibet plateau with a strong military and administrative presence but the region, along with Xinjiang, remains a worry for the authorities as recent restrictions on religious displays in the latter area indicate. India’s assertive postures would be like countering the stappled visa policy of China for Kashmir.
India made it clear that there is no change whatsoever in the Government of India’s policy towards the Tibet Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China. But still India can use it also as a diplomatic tool against China to settle the Border stand offs.
Instead of soft postures India has to work on these sensitive points of China to kill two birds’ i.e China as well as its newly found satellite state of Pakistan.
( The author is J&K based Strategic and Political analyst)
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