Prof. M. K. Bhat
After the election results in five states all eyes have got stuck on general elections to be held after a few months. Everyone is curious to see the tug of war in 2019 as things are getting interesting day by day. The ruling party as well as the opposition may have to work hard to make their place in Parliament. It will be worthwhile to see whether Congress can maintain its momentum or BJP will regain its lost turf in the Hindi heartland. Whosoever wins may have to face a strong opposition which is quite required for healthy democracy.
The recent elections in Madhya Pradesh, Telengana, Rajasthan, Mizoram and Chhattisgarh have made it imperative for BJP to introspect its working for getting success in general elections which is round the corner. It shall not cajole with the impression that local issues are of paramount importance in State elections and have little importance for general elections. It is no doubt that these elections are fought on local issues and local leadership has a say in such issues. People are mature enough to know that Modi has not to perform at local level, so it cannot be held as a referendum for his performance as the Prime Minister of the country. The so called anti Modi wave is hardly a reality, the matter of the fact is that anti incumbency accompanied by the folly of wrong ticketing, over confidence and under estimation of the opposition has led to the low performance of BJP. The projection of boomerang by Rahul is totally wrong. Had it been a vote for Congress then it could have managed Mizoram and Telengana too and the difference between the winners and the losers would have been too much, but it was not. It is no doubt that the popularity of Modi is quite high and that it will always come to the rescue of the party at every level is not a reality.
The hard core fact is that elections are fought on the logic of Chaal, Chariter and Chehra i.e. strategies adopted by the party, character of the party and the leader.
Chaal (Strategy): If BJP tries to make hindutva a core issue; Congress will project it as an election stunt of BJP. The former may try to consolidate Hindu votes while as the latter will try to galvanise minorities and reserved categories. Every party tries to polarise the election, if one plays a majoritarian role the other sticks to minoritism. The pre poll and post poll election opportunism cannot be ruled out and every effort to woo the voter to itself will be resorted to. Political alliances for power will be formed irrespective of their ideological pursuits. If one will sell dreams of free kitchen, loan waving, agricultural subsidy, reservation and the threat to minorities; the other will try to find out its refuge in the threat to majority from the minority appeasement. Farmers and poor people may grow in demand and all the contenders will not only feel for them, but may also justify their care for them. The development work of one will get counter from the other. Data will flow to justify the things from both sides, metaphors and language along with slug fest will galore in the country.
Whatever crops up as the core issue in the elections will have a direct bearing on the outcome of election. If Hindutava becomes the main issue, which BJP will definitely try for, then the soft Hindutava of Congress will lose its weight because the image of BJP as Hindu party can hardly be contested by Rahul’s Congress. His attempt of projecting himself as a Janavu Dhari Shiv Bhakt by wearing sacred thread on his coat will carry little meaning and the pseudo secularism will cost heavily to the party; on the contrary if corruption turns into the big issue, again the coalition partners of Congress will be the big losers as the image of congress in its second term of Manmohan Singh rule got tarnished beyond imagination and the reputation of other coalition partners too is tainted. Clean chit to the Government on Rafale deal will go to the credit of NDA.
The polarisation of minorities and castes may help Ghatbhandhan to get some leverage over the ruling party. Individual pockets of influence may help them to get more votes but the divergent views on leadership issue will make their coalition a mockery and nothing more than that. The dedicated booth level workers too will definitely carry their weight.
Charitar (Character): Contains the core of a political party. It is the history it carries with itself from its inception. Congress habitual of portraying one dynasty as the only champion of India’s freedom struggle is not cutting ice anymore, so does the BJPs manifestation of a few faces. Congress has more or less become synonymous with corruption and appeasement, being the oldest party, carries a big backlog. BJP carries a stigma of being majoritarian while as congresses secularism stands for Muslims only, Sikh riots ghost haunts it everywhere. The minority appeasement has made a negative image of secularists among the majority community. It has made congress to adopt soft Hindutua and Rahul goes from temple to temple to prove himself as a hindu. BJP aligns itself with the patriotism and hence it will bear an appeal for every Indian.
Chehra (leader): Modi has maintained his acceptance in people from last four years and Rahul has failed to grow himself as a competent opponent. His acceptance among people is low because of his lack of seriousness on every issue. The gimmick of visiting temples, brother in law’s land case, national herald case, corruption , dynastic background are further adding to his vows. His bad command on vocabulary gets apparent at every moment, he appears before public.Contrary to this Modi is a good orator, has complete control on vocabulary, communicates with masses, carries Indian touch in his speech which connects him quickly with the people. He bears a good image internationally and the strategic decision of surgical strike, GST and demonetisation has increased his appeal in general public.
While concluding it can be held that BJP needs to open its arms to welcome small political parties within its fold and the Mahaghatbhandan needs to project a face for Prime Ministership of the country. It needs to maintain its unity.
Democracy will definitely win when there is a strong opposition so people must vote in large numbers for a vibrant democracy. Fractured verdicts have only led to weak coalitions and policy paralysis in the country. Whether Mahaghatbhandhan or NDA comes to power in 2019, the lead party i.e. Congress or BJP shall get lead role to play otherwise the coalition will be a disaster in itself.
(The author is Director (MAIMS) Guru Gobind Singh Indiraprastha University Delhi)
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