Col J P Singh
At such a grotesque moments in history of J&K, when a class I state of India stands split down the spine and downgraded to a mere UT with all the freedom and liberty restricted, despair everywhere on the political spectrum, announcement of delimitation commission by the union govt gives some cheer. It signals Assembly election soon after the new constituencies are demarcated. J&K is otherwise in a political freeze after August 5 last year. Both mainstream Kashmir parties are in limbo. Their offices are shut. Their top leaders are under indefinite detention. Signals of start of political process also signal release of political detainees, restoration of freedom and liberties. Hence constitution of delimitation commission is a welcome step. Infact delimitation has been Jammu’s pressing demand because Farooq Abdullah led govt had put it on hold till 2026. With this announcement, the hope and aspirations of common man are finding its way in the thoughts of those who talk of democracy and vouch for dignity for all.
After the Jihadist insurgency began in 1988, those advocating Azadi and those who advocated merger with Pakistan started systematically attacking those who rejected these options. Kashmiri Pandits and Jammu’s Dogras were seen coming in the way of achieving such objectives. In the decade of 1990, Kashmiri Pandits and Dogras were treated as enemies by Jihadists. Kashmiri Pandits were hounded out of the valley and Jammu was targeted for harbouring them. While the terror in the valley and exodus of pandits was fully exposed, its fall out on Jammu was ignored. On the contrary a heinous crime in Jammu (Rassana Case) was blown out of proportions. When Article 370 was abrogated on 5th August 2019, Kashmiri leaders opposed it vehemently and the media went berserk as a result internet was shut down in J&K. New Delhi put Kashmiri leaders in detention. Due to large Kashmiri population having migrated to Jammu, considered a potential threat to peace in the region, Jammu was also subjected to similar restrictions. Reason for detention of Kashmiri leaders was explained by Premier Modi in the Parliament. Since nothing said about Jammu, what happened in Jammu post Article 370 abrogation was tragic.
The decade of 1990 was bloody for J&K. There was some respite when 2000 began. Premier Atal Behari Vajpayee extended a hand of Jamhooriyat, Insaniyat and Kashmiriyat. Kashmir started seeing idea of India more appealing. Dr Manmohan Singh followed the appeasement and so did Modi govt in its first term. But in its second term Modi led govt destroyed any hope of early reconciliation by revoking Article 370 which gave a special status to J&K. Today Kashmiris are feeling humiliated, hurt and pained for not having been consulted for abrogating Article 370 and later detaining their leaders under indefinite detention on cooked up charges. Kashmiris do not think such statements seditious but legally they are. Hence no further comments on their detention. ‘Public sab janti hai’. Since Modi didn’t insinuate Jammu leaders, Jammu needs to be compensated for having paid a price being part of Kashmir. Hence delimitation is one such opportunity to compensate Jammu.
Delimitation will go on as per Delhi’s plan but elections cannot be held without the involvement of Kashmiri population and its detained leaders. That could be reason for postponing Panchayat elections by 2 to 3 weeks stretching them to the month of April, if held. Jammu’s woes continue. Delhi’s hopes on Altaf Bukhari etc and Sarpanches doesn’t seem to be a politically viable option. Hence Jammu has a chance.
Assembly elections will be held under increased and redrawn constituencies. Talk of the town is Jammu CM. One wonders will the dream come true. BJP leader Avinash Rai Khanna, when reappointed J&K Poll in-charge on 31 July 2019, a month before Re-organisation of J&K, changed the tone and tenor of political discourse by stating, “our first target is to form the govt independently”. What would be the 2nd target is anybody’s guess. As per the Re-organisation Act, J&K will have 90 seats Assembly. There is an increase of 7 seats. With the delimitation of constituencies these 7 seats are going to be in Jammu region because of inclusion of Pak Refugees of 1947 becoming electorate in Assembly Election. Jammu will now have 37 + 7 = 44 Seats and Kashmir 46. If the mathematics is to be believed the chief ministership still lies with Kashmir. Mathematics is always right. But politics is a social science, not maths. Hence hope sustains.
2nd time BJP President Ravinder Raina has been asserting, BJP will form the next govt in the state (now UT), with a Hindu Chief Minister and break the status-quo. He has been saying this on the strength of party’s ‘monumental performance’ in the Lok Sabha election in which party won 3 out of 6 seats. Party won both the seats of Jammu and lone seat of Ladakh with huge margins. It led in 25 out of 37 constituencies in Jammu regions, 3 out of 4 in Ladakh and one out of 46 in Kashmir (Tral). BJP got 46.39 % of the votes polled, 12 % more than 2014 election. On the other hand Congress got 28.47%, NC 7.89% and PDP got 2.37 %. This could be the basis of his assertion. Lead in 29 out of 87 constituencies with nearly 12 % increase in vote share and now changed political scenario is a good opportunity to install a Jammu CM even if not a Hindu CM. As per Ram Madhav, BJP will fight the UT election independently and encourage young leaders and new faces. This statement is significant. That prompts me to stick my neck in the realm of uncertainties. Politics is full of probabilities and hence we tend to believe what BJP leaders say, even if do not agree. There are many imponderables in reaching the magic figure of 46. In J&K with the existing political, ethnic and cultural diversity, even Amit Shah will not risk saying so. In the Parliament election nearly the entire country voted for nationalism. But Kashmir didn’t. It voted for regionalism. For Assembly elections in Orissa ad Andhra, held with Lok Sabha election and in Telangana, just before it, people voted for regionalism. Similarly in J&K also regionalism is traditionally more starkly marked in all the elections. Eroded identity of Jammu, particularly during PDP-BJP coalition regime will be an issue in the state election. I don’t think in the Assembly election people are going to vote for Ravinder Raina because of his statement that J&K will have a Hindu chief minister firstly because of leadership deficit by their own admission and secondly because there are alternatives, as leaders and parties, are readily available. Congress, Panthers, and Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan Party with Gulam Nabi Azad, Harshdev Singh and Ch. Lal Singh respectively will be in the fray. Who in BJP? 29 seats lead doesn’t enable Party to form the govt leave aside giving a Hindu Chief Minister this time or for that matter any time soon till some of the 24 seats frozen for POJK are de-frozen, allotted to POJK refugees and then delimitation held transparently by which Jammu may have more numbers than Kashmir.
Reo-organisation of J&K is provoking wide political awakening. Why should Jammu keep quiet or live in certain sense of disquiet at the prospect of aspiring for a Jammu CM. State apparatus may still try its level best to foist a Kashmiri as a matter of appeasement to extinguish the much feared spark of rebellion. Jammu must think if the CM is mine what would it mean to us.
Kashmir will not vote for BJP. Jammu will not vote for PDP which is born from the womb of terrorism and otherwise also out of Jammu radar because of its stand on abrogation of 370. Jammu may not vote for NC for similar reasons besides after previous Governor Sat Pal Malik’s expose’ of corruption against its top leaders. BJP’s fight in its Jammu bastion will be against local and regional satraps. They include ‘Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan and Panther Party’. If BJP is serious this time and smart enough, it will have to manage these political rivals which would need great political skills. In 2015, BJP went for coalition with the PDP. Will it again forge an alliance with the new Kashmiri leaders (new faces of Ram Mahdev) and hand over everything to someone on a platter if it failed to reach the magic figure of 46 is the question the BJP need to answer before entering the fray. It is for us to wait and watch how the politics evolves after much sought after delimitation.
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