Anil Anand
The biggest mystery of 2019 Lok Sabha polls ultimately stands resol-ved but not before weeks of suspense. Yes, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have decided to go on their separate ways putting an end to speculations of a likely tie-up between the two to put a formidable front against BJP.
The stage is now set for a triangular contest in Delhi’s seven seats with Congress finally announcing its candidates. Although AAP had already announced its candidates weeks before but its leaders were all through giving an impression about desire for a Congress-AAP front. It is a different matter that the desire was devoid of real intent as AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal not only widened the canvas of coalition- Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana and Goa subsequently included by him as bargaining chips to accommodate Congress in Delhi- but the blow hot and blow cold attitude adopted by him and his fellow travellers in terms of intemperate language used against their Congress counterparts gradually diminished whatever scope for an alliance had existed.
To be fair to Congress’ top leadership despite Kejriwal and company’s vitriolic outbursts and uncharitable remarks and repeatedly charging them with trying to help BJP’s cause by not acceding to the AAP’s demand based coalition formula, they did not retaliate in the same coin. So the hope kept flickering till a point of no return reached with AAP refusing to accept only Delhi-centric offer of the Congress and latter ruling out including other states as well.
Delhi might not be significant in terms of number of seats (7) but for the fact that it is the nerve centre of national politics and hub of media and opinion makers it is important from a wider national perspective in any general elections as in 2019. The net result of Congress-AAP prolonged stalemate was that the politico-electoral activity had almost come to a standstill in the Capital city that sent conflicting and sometimes wrong signals across the country.
Although the dispute was between Congress and AAP and since both were trying to come together to checkmate BJP it was but natural that the saffron party strategists were closely monitoring the rivals’ coalition talks. It directly led to a stalemate within the BJP as well and raised levels of uncertainty with delay in selection of candidates and resultant delayed beginning of poll campaign.
Since the stage has now been set and battlelines drawn for the May 12 polling, it is imperative to evaluate the current standing of the three parties and their respective chances. The BJP had won all the seven seats in 2014 defeating both AAP, which came second, and Congress a poor third. It is another matter that in the subsequent Delhi Assembly elections AAP upstaged both winning a mammoth 67 seats in a House of 70.
In this backdrop any talk of Congress-AAP coalition evinced interest in the public as well as in the political circles. The question now arises that will it be a cakewalk for BJP to retain all the seven seats? On paper it looks quite possible but given the fact that all the three parties have traversed different paths during the last five years, some trying to keep intact or expand their base ( read BJP and AAP) and Congress desperately trying to regain its lost ground, it will be too simplistic to say that 2019 Lok Sabha outcome would be a repeat of 2014.
The line up of Congress candidates makes an interesting reading with one clear conclusion that the party has heavily relied on old guard with Ajay Maken ( New Delhi) , Arvinder Singh Lovely ( East Delhi), though tried and tested, and Rajesh Lilothia (North West Delhi) being comparatively younger faces. Leading the charge would be the septuagenarian three times former chief minister Sheila Dikshit (from North-East Delhi seat) who incidentally is also head of Delhi Congress. Her appointment as Delhi Congress chief, immediately after she underwent a major heart surgery in France, was as surprising as fielding her for the Lok Sabha elections.
The Congress has under the circumstances put its best foot forward by giving mandate to tried and trusted hands. It was certainly not out of any love for them that the party president Rahul Gandhi accepted their candidature but also to buy peace with them and prevent factionalism further harming the Congress’ chances in what is going to be a tough election.
Most of the heavyweights including old warhorse J P Aggarwal (Chandni Chowk) and Mahabal Mishra (West Delhi) have been left with no other option but to give their best. They have an added responsibility as almost all of them including Sheila Dikshit had been leading factions in waging a war against the then Delhi Congress chief Maken before he quit on health grounds.
The AAP candidates, and expectedly too as the party is in its infancy, are new and young. They have the advantage of a well-honed organisational network but the disadvantage of the party being in power in Delhi for over four years now and the mindless agitational path adopted by its leaders and ranks. So they would have to address many questions on their government’s performance vis a vis the promises made by Kejriwal at the time of Assembly elections.
Cleverly enough sensing this trouble on account of anti-incumbency Kejriwal has already raised a bogy of full statehood to Delhi which he feels is the bane of all that is wrong in the Capital city. Whether this ploy convinces the people as problems on transport, environment/pollution, water and power supply, health and education fronts still persist despite some achievement on the last two subjects.
The BJP has banked on a status quo approach. The party has repeated most of its sitting MPs barring one or two. Not that the party does not have any problems. The fact that the party is in power with strong Narendra Modi Government and ruling in all the three corporations of Delhi, it has a lot to answer about many failures on ground. The party’s current confidence has as a lot to do with Modi factor. Despite factional rumblings ever since the Bhojpuri film actor cum singer Manoj Tiwari was given charge of Delhi BJP after sidelining all the local leaders, the party’s strong hope is that all ills plaguing them would be overshadowed by Modi’s presence.
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