Mohammed Shahid Saleem
You believe it or not, the humanity is in the midst of worst crisis. The history of such crisis is tragic and barbaric. Stating from Justinian Plague of sixth century to Black Death of 14th century to Spanish flue of 20th century with the ongoing AIDS epidemic, the tears from human eyes have indeed whined, wailed and moaned. The loss of innocent lives due to faulty strategies adopted by those in power or lack of scientific knowledge to address the problem was huge. The Justinian plague resulted in 100 million people dying worldwide over fifty years caused by rat fleas harbored by merchant ships. The Black Death of Western Europe, caused by same bacterium Yersinia Pestis for Justinian Plague, from 1347 to 1351 was also very much ghastly and gruesome killing more than 62 million people with almost same mechanism of spread.
The Spanish Flu from 1918 to 1920 gave tragic shocks of horror to humanity. Killing 40 million people worldwide, the victims were having age from 15 to 45 years. The United States suffered a loss of 675 thousand lives which was more than the combat deaths it suffered in World War I, II, Vietnam and Korea. The flu originated in Kansas in spring of 1918, by fall of the year it spread through Europe and by 1919 it reached India, Australia and New Zealand. The main cause of this spread was again the movement of people through ships but this time it was troops movement for World War I. Grandfather of Donald Trump had also fallen prey to this pandemic but still he is thinking of ‘economy first’ for USA and not preferring lockdown. This pandemic was more painful as the humanity saw young, rigrous, robust men dying who had been in the best physical conditions. Indeed, the coffin of young is very harsh to carry than a coffin of the person who has almost lived his life though that too is painful. Meanwhile, the shocks given by AIDS pandemic, with a toll of more than 30 million lives world over, are still hovering over the humanity but thanks to available treatment.
The figures mentioned are painful, scary and frightening. Yes, we need to learn and remember these figures as our memory is very bad. We are passing through chilling times. Our present world is much more populated and denser than during the times of past pandemics. Our means of transport are much more robust and faster than of the past. We are more advanced in terms of communication and so is the spread of present pandemic fast and furious. Just understand- on 9th January the COVID 19 was Chinese problem, on 13th January it surfaces in Thailand, by February end it becomes problem of Italy and Iran and during this month all G7 nations are its new epicenters and now it’s everybody’s problem with special reference to India.
While all the nations are presently busy in getting the epidemiologic curve of the disease flattened by enforcing lockdowns, minimizing social contacts and closure of all non-essential activities of citizens, which in absence of vaccine for cure is the only panacea, the world economy is having a continuous steep fall. The stock markets are gyrating 5 to 10% a day with financial markets showing high volatility. 2/3rd of the planets area responsible for outputs being presently engaged in containment of the spread of the pandemic has halted the production of goods and services coupled with the lockdowns having halted the consumption all over the world. The containment policies have a drastic and negative effect on the economy world over but at the same time if not done the economy may keep its vigour but the humanity will see coffins and graves. Having adopted the containment policies by all the big sharks a severe and painful blow is going to hit- economic recession. The modern economy being a web of interconnected parties, employees, firms, suppliers, consumers, banks and fiscal intermediaries and any blockage in the chain is having cascading and rippling effect and thus chocking the heart of the system. Its due to this fear that all economies especially developed and emerging, despite knowing the strategies adopted by China to contain the COVID 19, were reluctant to adopt the same to avoid economic catastrophe which in the GDP race is definitely not a good decision.
But the countries are also in a bad trap to manage healthcare system and that’s why lockdown and crashing of economies is being preferred over the proliferating infection due lack of capacity and infrastructure to deal with the situation. The trap is non availability of required tertiary care infrastructure to deal with the infected persons. For example, the mighty and super power ‘USA’ has been seen on its kneels and so are the other mighty nations. With a population of 331 million people, its presumed that 40 to 70% of US population will get infected. Figuratively if 150 million get infected and only 20% of the infected require hospitalization and only 5% requiring ventilators means USA needs 7.5 million ventilators against available 72000 thus leading to a healthcare crash as the ratio of ventilator: patient comes to 1:50. Italy having better health infrastructure and bed per capita ratio than USA has been seen not only suffering badly but also seen almost giving up but still kudos to the medicos there who have fought so bravely and valiantly. In terms of hospitals beds per 1,000 inhabitants, Italy is close to Finland and slightly higher than Israel and Spain, but far below Japan, South Korea and Germany. The situation makes it clear that the only solution in absence of vaccine is total lockdown without caring for economic losses.
The steps taken by India are worth praising. By deciding ‘Humanity first’ and not the economy we have shown our resolve. If not taken, as said by some experts holding the ground, a time bomb was ready to explode as the acceleration phase of the spread is nearing. Even if delayed, despite knowing the Chinese practical approach of locking down which was much harsher and more brutal, the action is timely and required. Having experience of tackling Measles and Polio, we have the capacity to fight. The ailing economy will rise again but the loss to same economy due to human capital tragedy shock would have been much more. The option is also limited and that’s a) only-lockdown and b) keeping the spread of infection within the healthcare system capacity and not letting it grow exponentially as during acceleration phase of the spread lot of hospitalization will be needed, as seen in Wuhan and Italy, and we are not having that much capacity and infrastructure and even not the USA and other G7 nations have. With only around 60 thousand ICU beds with 60 thousand ventilators in India, the public has to keep in mind how important it is to abide by the directions issued for their own safety. The condition of health infrastructure in J&K is also worrisome and therefore lockdown is to be made successful by any policy be it carrot or stick.
While this lockdown goes the government has to and I am sure that policy makers will ensure that the households and businesses hit are provided cash transfers, wage subsidies, and tax relief helping people to meet their needs and businesses to stay buoyant. With macroeconomic measures the governments have to flatten the recession curve as has been done with the pandemic curve. Governments need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to boost the flagellating economy. Extension of tax deadlines for companies, wage supplementation fund to provide income support to laid off workers, wage subsidies for small merchants, increased allowances for homecare and job seekers can be some of the measures to keep the pulse of economy in shape. Providing unemployment insurance to those laid off and considering funding of unwell workers or their caregivers to stay home without fear of losing their jobs can be a better welfare gesture. Meanwhile, Central banks should be ready to play a positive role by providing ample liquidity to banks and nonbank finance companies, particularly to those lending to small and medium-sized enterprises. The Central Bank has to take front seat and steer the economy as master driver. At global level the multilateral donors have to step in to help countries in distress to cope up with the situation. Let these Neo-Classical institutions perform in these bad and cruel times on the principals of humanity rather than mere economic and econometric theories.
Time has come to think and resolve to think ‘humanity first’ than any other slogan or philosophy breaking us apart. Let’s save humanity first and only after having success, if we continue marooned in idiocy, ludicrousness and senselessness, without learning any lesson, we start fighting for nonsense issues based on our little knowledge and naïve understanding of religion, politics and petty matters. The Corona has brought us together to think, ponder, muse and to feel the pain of others irrespective of nation, caste, creed, colour or religion as none of the victims knows who has passed to him the infection and neither the patient knows to whom he has passed it further. The virus is atheist and is attacking us all so better for all of us to fight together leaving all barriers aside be it religion, region, colour, caste, creed, nation or race. Hope the humanity prevails and we the humans remember these hard times and never fall prey to animosity and hate. Let’s start our fight, a nonviolent fight by staying indoors.
The ideas are private and has nothing to do with the official position of author.
(The author is a KAS officer presently doing Masters in Development Studies (Public Policy) at the International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University, The Hague, The Netherlands.)
mssd1978@gmail.com
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