Vishal Sharma
The books by the former media adviser to prime minister, Sanjay Baru and ex-coal secretary, P C Parakh, revealing the fatal failings in the working of the UPA Government have come at a wrong time for the Congress. They have not revealed anything more than that was not already known. But, as is in the nature of political gossip, unless it is confirmed, both parties milk it to their advantage. And once it is confirmed, as has been done by these books, speculative advantage of one party is wrested by the other. Similarly, Congress’s cover of pretensions has been ripped apart by these revelations from its former confidantes.
But the story of Congress’s slide can’t simply be put down to these books. This slide has been in the making for some time now. Its cause has not helped either by its mascot and the perceived trump card, Rahul Gandhi. He has failed to lead an ideological charge against Narendra Modi, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate in the ongoing lok sabha elections. Part of it is ascribable to his lack of natural talent for leadership. At best he has come through as a reluctant skipper; somebody given half a chance to walk away from the battle, would much rather show his back than dig in. At worst, he has shown himself up to be preachy and moralizing. And this has been his biggest undoing. Because he just does not have the intellectual profundity to hold forth on issues like he does. No wonder he has been made the butt of many jokes on social media; some of which border on abuse.
Rahul’s best chance arguably lay in not going around the country, intellectually pontificating about the solutions to the pressing problems that the country faces. He should have only given a perspective that was easily identifiable by the common man; a common man’s view of the country’s problem. Thereafter, he should have laid out an extremely simple; easy to understand blueprint for their solutions. Sadly, he has done the reverse. In fact, even on UPA’s achievements, which are not as bad as the media has come to portray and we have come to believe, his defence has the carried the cachet of the intellectual arguments that do not suit his pedestrian disposition. They quite simply look borrowed.
Incumbent Government win elections on their performance, just as MP and Chattisgarh Governments have done. It is too much to expect the voters to vote you in on issues of emotional appeal and not on performance. These days voters are not gullible; they can succumb to waves based on identity/denomination only once. UPA’s performance has not been any bad. What’s been bad is that it has announced them well. Its welfarist measures have been ground breaking; it has lifted many millions out of poverty; and helped create a new class of around 70 crore people of drivers, craftsman etc., nicely tucked in between the BPL and the middle class. Another round of welfarism can nudge this class into the famed middle class. As and when this happens, this would be the most significant economic transformation (of such a vast majority) anywhere in the world. Congress says this economic transformation forms the core of its welfare programmes. In fact, Rahul has often talked about this class in his campaign speeches.
Rights based entitlements advanced by the Congress are significant for when backed by adequate financial assistance they can transform the poverty landscape in the country. It is also a fact that when right based entitlements come into being, state has no choice but to set aside the matching resource for its implementation. To that extent, therefore, the opposition’s criticism of these entitlements being decorative is less than fair.
By all reckoning, the maximum damage to the UPA has been done by alleged corruption in the Government. It is perceived to be the most corrupt Government since independence. But most of it is perceptional even as some of it is the product of tacit quid pro quo that underpins the coalition Governments as typified by the 2G scam in the telecom sector under DMK’s A Raja. Some of the so called scams are notional- the observations of the caviling auditor. While others are policy tweaks that an elected Government is fully entitled to although it would have been better if they had been avoided or procedurally transparent. Even so, tensions between the Government and its institutions like CAG, CBI etc., which became the staple fare in the media and, consequently, led to street gossip, should have been avoided. If there is a case for the Government functioning to be corrected, there is also equally a case for these institutions to respect their constraints and the supremacy of the executive in the constitutional scheme of things.
Congress’s twin problems have been that it has neither adequately defended itself on the issue of corruption nor successfully reached out to the people on its various welfare programmes. This disconnect has been baffling considering that it was in the Government and could easily have launched massive awareness programme. Contrast this with the Modi’s massive advertisement blitz even though he does not command the resources, both human and monetary, of the scale and size the Congress does. But congress has only taken half measures, both in defence and self aggrandizement; perhaps due to the fact that it has accepted defeat well before it has been actually defeated.
Some say it is because of congress’s poor self aggrandizement campaign on its developmental achievements. But it is partly true. The real reason is that it chose to counter Narendra Modi by invoking his communal past and propagating dangers involved in crowning him as the India’s helmsman. This has worked for Modi who has built his entire campaign on the development plank. In a way, Congress has chosen to tread on his terrain and walked into his trap much like it did with ‘Maut ka Saudagar’ barb. Congress should have stuck to the developmental narrative and, instead, picked holes in the Gujarat’s developmental narrative on sustained basis, as has been done by many independent agencies.
The other reason is that Modi has cleverly made this lok sabha elections somewhat presidential. He has made it Rahul Vs Modi and not Congress Vs BJP contest. For him, Rahul Vs Modi duel is a far better proposition than Congress Vs BJP. And so far dice has fallen to his liking and the ongoing electoral contest is increasingly being seen as between Rahul and him. There are no prizes for guessing who is winning this contest; and that too, by a mile.
Congress has not read Modi at all. In the beginning at the time of his coronation as campaign chief, he was taken lightly; later at the time of his nomination as prime ministerial candidate, and later, he was not challenged enough. For a man, who has weathered the storm of 2002 riots, and successfully warded off the challenges from LK Advani and other stalwarts in the party, Congress’s challenge seemingly has been a walkover for him so far even though we are still far from the denouement.
Congress has failed on many fronts in challenging its only adversary, Modi. But it is also hit by the incumbency of 10 years. Taken together, it has double disadvantage on its hands. Though it may not fare as well in the elections, it still remains the best bet for a country that would much rather have a centrist party at the helm than a left of the centre or a right of the centre or in extreme cases a left or a right dispensation for obvious reasons.
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