Dhurjati Mukherjee
The Green Revolution in agriculture finds itself triumphed by the Green Evolution because of changing climatic developments, which are likely to occur in the coming years. The recent world-wide concern about global warming and the concerns of eminent scientists and academicians that urgent action was needed to prevent the catastrophe have gone virtually unheeded though there has been some headway towards bio-fuels.
Obviously bio-fuels could be an ideal solution to bring down pollution levels and curb CO2 emissions but the negative aspect is by turning agricultural land to grow crops that could be processed ethanol – a less polluting fuel than petrol or diesel – thereby further impacting food production.
This has resulted in land that was previously used to grow grains and other agri-products for human consumption which has now been devoted to crops for vehicles. The obvious effect over the last few years has led to a crisis situation in food, which may get accentuated in future, resulting in further escalation of food prices due to shortages. Former Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi has stated: “something must be done to ensure that both the US and Europe stop producing fuel in competition with food”,
Meanwhile, a recent UN report predicted severe impact of global warming on foodgrain production, fresh water resources and human settlements across the globe with populous areas facing the brunt of it. It forecast that climate change is expected to reduce median yields by up to 2 per cent per decade for the rest of the 21st century against rising demand of foodgrain by 14 per cent per decade until 1950.
The temperature increase of 2.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels, states the report, predicted declining yield of major crops such as wheat, rice and maize in different climatic zones as also the tropical regions of Asia. It adds: “The majority of those affected will be in East Asia, South East Asia and South Asia. Rising sea levels means coastal systems and low lying areas will increasingly experience submergence, coastal flooding and coastal erosion”. Thus the effect of this would affect the poorer sections of the population.
It can easily be said that impact of climate change would severely affect Third World countries. Agricultural productivity would, in all likelihood, decline in the tropics, even with changes in farming practices. And, as per reports, over 3 million additional people could die from malnutrition or under nutrition every year. Developing countries are likely to be more dependent on imports from their well-off counterparts with their farmers losing market shares in agricultural trade.
The spike in food prices during the past few years and the global financial problems have been critical issues. It is well known that almost half the Third World countries are still in poverty, living on less than $ 2 a day. Insofar as India is concerned, keeping in view climate and agricultural outcomes, yields of major crops are projected to decline by 4.5 to 9 per cent within the next three decades, even allowing for short-term adaptations.
The implications of climate change on poverty – and GDP – would be enormous given projected population growth and the evidence that one percentage point of agricultural GDP growth in developing countries increases the consumption of the poorest third of the population by 4 to 6 percentage points.
Man’s fight against hunger has taken a new turn and as Dr. Norman Borlaug predicted way back in his 1970 Nobel Prize address that the green revolution can “provide food for sustenance during the next three decades” is very much true today. The green revolution has run its course and after four decades is being faced with environmental consequences of intense, industrial agriculture apart soil salinity due to high degree of chemicals and pesticides and, of course, water shortages.
The threat to food security as well environment has undoubtedly posed a big challenge to the human race. Global hunger is indeed quite severe: nearly 30 per cent of world’s population currently suffers malnutrition, some 850 million are undernourished and around 2.8 million children and 300,000 women die annually in the developing countries. Sometime back it was estimated that around 3 billion or about half of the world’s population would be food insecure.
Unless the food shortage situation is tackled effectively, the world would face social riots, terrorist activity, political instability and more failed States. During the past few years, food riots were reported in over a dozen countries in Africa and Asia, specially in Egypt, Haiti, Cameroon, Bangladesh and Indonesia following sharp rise in food prices caused by record oil costs, severe droughts, diversion of corn for ethanol use and rapidly growing demand. The he same situation was last year. A few years ago, former World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick warned that 30-odd nations were at risk of social unrest from the crisis as the world faced the biggest challenge from its 45-year history.
The situation may deteriorate further if oil prices do not stabilize; climate change related disasters increase in frequency and intensity; policy decisions, such as mandated bio-fuel quotas in fuel supply, further deteriorate the already strong price connection between fuel and food; threats of drought in a cyclical order – more so due to soil contamination — and rapidly growing demand.
At this point in time, in India there is a need to concentrate on the traditional methods of soil health enhancement and pest management and blend them with modern technology. It would be prudent to promote livestock farming systems rather than totally depend on monoculture of the same crop and variety. In the wake of global energy and food crises, developing nations like ours should promote conservation farming and sustainable rural livelihoods. This may help to achieve an evergreen revolution, leading to an improvement of productivity. (INFA)
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