Sunil Gatade
After much debate and discussion, Congress has finally decided that Rahul Gandhi will lead the 2014 Lok Sabha poll campaign, though it has not formally named him as the Prime Ministerial candidate like Narendra Modi of the BJP.
The decision was not unexpected given the fact that there have been challenges galore for the Congress and it needs to move cautiously given that the battle ahead was tough by all accounts.
This is especially so after the debacle in the Assembly elections in four states which was a rude jolt to the ruling party at the Centre.
The issue of price rise and corruption affected the Congress adversely notwithstanding projections that it had done the utmost to help the aam aadmi and to curb graft. Soon after the verdict in the four states was out, Congress President Sonia Gandhi had herself conceded that price rise was one of the factors.
The passage of the Lokpal bill and Rahul’s declaration that his party would move heaven and earth to pass six anti-graft bills in the last session of the 15th Lok Sabha next month is not making much difference about changing the perception about the Congress.
It must be admitted that Rahul’s speech at the AICC meet was combative and he enthused the rank and file by his spirited address and his attempts to reach out to youth,women and weaker sections.
Congress has been facing double trouble with the emergence of Modi as the PM candidate of the BJP on the plank of a strong leader and the rise of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party virtually out of nowhere.
AAP has changed the grammer of Indian politics by coming to power in Delhi within a year of turning a movement against corruption into a political organization. The victory in Delhi coupled with the overwhelming response it was getting in adjoining states has made AAP decide to contest some 250 to 300 seats and Kejriwal claiming that his party’s fight was with the BJP and Congress was in a third position.
While exaggeration of one’s strength is part of the game in politics, the fact cannot be denied that the buzz of AAP is growing from north to south.
With the political clock ticking fast as the Parliamentary polls are just three months away, Rahul has his job cut out for him. At a time when the party is not fighting fit, he has to move ahead on all the fronts ranging from selection of candidates to stitching of alliances in the states.
This is better said than done. The problem is Congress is not getting good allies and is in two minds whether to align with those who have more than a controversial past. In Bihar, Rahul was banking on the prospects of an alliance with Nitish Kumar’s JD-U but the Chief Minister is an ambitious lot and feels that the Congress ship is sinking. While Lalu Prasad is pleading for an alliance with RJD, Rahul has never got along with the RJD strongman, who has been recently out of jail.
Similar is the scene in Tamil Nadu. A section in the state unit is pitching for an alliance with ruling AIADMK while DMK, which has been a loyal partner of the UPA till recently, wants to come back but is a spent force.
Rahul wants an alliance with Mayawati’s BSP in Uttar Pradesh to shake off the growing challenge from BJP in Uttar Pradesh but the BSP chief is reluctant. AAP is also trying to fish in troubled waters of U P having 80 Lok Sabha seats.
With Congress not in the pink of health, the existing allies like the NCP are also pushing for a better deal in a move to force Rahul not to effect any change in the existing seat sharing formula in Maharashtra.
It is not without substance that Rahul told partymen that the coming elections are a turning point in the country’s journey and the Congress should transform itself by catering to the aspirations of the common man and ordinary worker.
This is because the Congress is seen on the backfoot due to the alleged omissions and commissions of the Centre and no serious political observer feels that the party in power would be able to achieve a UPA-III-a third term in power.
This is also because there is an apprehension into a section of Congressmen that if Modi comes to power, it will be a hard grind for Congress for long. Unlike Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Modi is seen as not only an authoritarian but also a vindictive leader.
A section of the Congress had pitched for making Rahul the Prime Minister before or after the Assembly polls in four states contending that such a move coupled with several populist measures would have changed the electoral scene by creating a buzz for the young leader. But it was not to be due to apparent reluctance of Rahul.
Congress decision not to name Rahul as its PM candidate could be a smart one, says a section of political observers, who feel that it was intended to send the right signal to the like minded secular parties that the party was not averse to a Third Front experiment to keep Modi out of power.
They recall Congress had backed H D Deve Gowda and later I K Gujral as Prime Ministers of the United Front and the grand old party could be seeking out a new Gowda or Gujral to rally the non- Congress parties with it to build a non-BJP coalition.
This was because it needs breathing space to make Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister so that conditions become favourable for his taking over after some time- the next elections after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls whenever they happen.
All in all, it is a tough task ahead for Rahul and the Congress at a time when India is at the cusp of a new politics.
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