Brij Bhardwaj
The contest in Punjab is becoming interesting by the day as the State has never witnessed a four cornered fight in the past. Earlier, it was fight between the Congress Party and BJP-Akali Dal alliance. In 2017 Aam Aadmi Party enetered the field with high expectations but fell short, but still became the largest Opposition party as Akalis fared badly. This time a fourth player has entered the field that is rebel Congress group led by fomer Chief Minister Captain Amrinder Singh who has an alliance with the BJP and rebel Akali group.
The Congress Party, which was in power has lost a lot of ground and there is a strong possibility that no single party may win a majority. In-fighting.within the ranks.of Congress has damaged them. In the first instance Captain was ousted and a Dalit leader was elected as Chief Minister. Charanjit Singh Chani, faced criticism from party Chief in Punjab, Navjot Singh Sidhu from day one as he was hoping to occupy the Chief Minister’s chair after the ouster of Captain. But Sidhu did not realise that he has enemies outside the Congress as well as within the party. As a result the party was left with no choice but to name Chani as Chief Ministerial face of Congress in the coming polls.
But the Congress’ hope that Chani, as first Dalit Chief Minister would help them to win votes of Dalits, who are over one third of the total electorate in the State, may not materialise as Dalits are a divided lot and even Kanshi Ram, the tallest Dalit leader had not been able to make them vote as a single block. More so Doaba region which had supported Congress in past is divided this time. In Malwa region Aam Aadmi Party has gained a lot of ground . Akali Dal has also been able to mobilise its cadre and is expected to do better as compared to 2017. An alliance with BSP will also get them some support from Dalits.
Yet another factor is the entry of Captain Amrinder Singh, who has an alliance with BJP and rebel Akali group. Captain has been able to pull in many and win support of Hindu groups who had supported him in past. RSS workers who had supported Congress in 2017 because Aam Admi Party had support of extreme Khalsa groups have also become active again for BJP. Captain on his own also enjoys support in Patiala region. All combined have made the BJP alliance strong in about twenty seats where they may emerge on top or as number two. In case they win about a dozen seats they may become kingmaker.
In the current situation there is a possibility that no single party may win majority to form the Government. Different parties are emerging as winners in different regions. Malwa, Doaba and belt of Gurdaspur may vote differently. The result will be that no party will get majority on it own. Farmers of Punjab who took active part in agitation against farm laws, are not influencing minds of voters in the current poll.
The farm group which has decided to fight elections may win few seats but they will not influence poll in a decisive way. The biggest factor helping Captain Amrinder Singh is support for him among the Hindus who form majority in Amritsar, :Ludhiana and other towns. It may be mentioned that Captain had won Lok Sabha poll by defeating Arun Jaitley who was supported by BJP and Akali Dal. It was because of support of Hundu Voters.In the present scenario the Congress has limited support of Hindu voters and many are supporting Aam Aadmi Party because of widespread corruption. Recent raids on nephew of Chani have also damaged his reputation as a leader who belonged to poor family. As such opinion polls which have not taken much notice of BJP and Captain alliance may be surprised when results come out.
In short many feel that Punjab poll may throw up more surprises as compared to other four States going to polls.
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