Anil Anand
A small sub-regional party on the centre-stage of India’s political firmament not only making headlines but giving shivers to the most powerful mainline national political parties. It may not be more in terms of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehdul Muslimeen (AIMIM) posing a threat to topple any of these rivals but it has more to do with the Hyderabad based Muslim-centric party threatening to rewrite the electoral calculus.
Although AIMIM has existed for past few decades but its presence was not felt as strongly as during the last one decade. The person who has brought the party to the national limelight is its current chief and Hyderabad MP Mr Assaduddin Owaisi. His decision to jump into the Bihar poll arena though with a limited task to be seen as the harbinger of Muslim cause through raising their plight has given him a quantum jump with a tag of spoiler.
From all available indications Owaisi’s fight in Bihar is symbolic as he has limited himself to contest half a dozen seats from Muslim majority Seemanchal part of the state. He might not win a seat or even fail to cut into secular votes of Janata Dal(u)- RJD-Congress alliance to benefit the rival BJP-led alliance. But he has certainly managed to strike in the minds of these frontline political parties.
The AIMIM, with a Muslim tag, under him is still a new phenomenon and outside Hyderabad it has tested electoral victory for the first time in Maharashtra with winning four seats in Muslim dominated areas. But Mr Owaisi’s importance lies somewhere else.
His import lies in his effort to become a voice of the Muslims and secondly and more significantly if he is able to create a Muslim constituency then he can be an effective ally with a potential to topple even the most powerful leaders and political parties.
So far as Bihar is concerned Mr Owaisi has done what he wishes to do. He may or may not win a seat or two but significance of his presence in this election lies as to how he would like to carry forward and translate this experiment in the UP Assembly elections over a year from now.
Many might argue that it is too early to discuss the AIMIM’s entry or gameplan in UP. But from all available indications the task has already been cut out for him to foray into UP politics. He made the advent when he visited Dadri in the aftermath of lynching of a Muslim by a rowdy mob which he has further strengthened with decision to contest two Assembly bi-elections in the state happening shortly.
As of today, there are strong indications of UP heading towards a bi-polar contest with BJP and Samajwadi Party being two poles. Mr Owaisi’s AIMIM might not be able to win seats but his significance would lie in channelizing the bi-polar contest in a particular direction which could ultimately make it tripartite and a surprise winner.
The dark horse in his scheme of things could be Bahujan Samajwadi Party supremo Ms Mayawati. She might look down but she is certainly not out as she has been quietly busy in consolidating her Dalit vote bank that deserted her during last Lok Sabha elections.
Ms Mayawati is a difficult customer and it might not be that easy for Mr Owaisi to become a BSP ally until the latter reaches a level where he could influence Muslim voters to either vote for Mayawati or at least ensure that he could crack the Muslim base of Samajwadi Party president Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Some clarity about his possible role in UP’s electoral politics will come when he actually fields candidates for the two bi-elections. It would be seen as trial and a test-balloon by the ilks of Ms Mayawati. On the face of it these bi-elections will be insignificant if viewed from the national perspective but Owaisi’s presence will certainly make in interesting with an eye on future.
To begin with Mr Owaisi will enter UP with the image of a vote divider. For him to succeed and attract prospective allies such as Ms Mayawati it will incumbent upon him to prove these credentials and the two bi-elections will be a test case for this also.
It is still premature to say as to how will AIMIM entry into UP will affect the Muslim psyche. The community is currently looking for a forum where it can get greater representation and secondly have share in government formation. Mr Owaisi can address the representation issue by fielding large number of Muslim candidates but whether he can ensure their victory and ultimately become a player in the government formation, it is a tricky question to answer.
How would Mr Owaisi’s success or failure in UP impact the scene is something which difficult to fathom at this juncture. But one thing is clear he has the potential to force a rethink on current brand of secularism which many feel is more about ghettoising Muslim community rather than assimilating them into the national mainstream.
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