Anil Anand
Forever war (electoral battle) hardy, never the one to lower the guard even in the face of a defeat that happens once a while only and on top of that never the one to rue or express remorse over a defeat (at least publicly)- that is the sum total of BJP’s approach towards elections during the last seven years and more or less in its model of governance. This trend was amply reflected in the recently held elections to four state and one Union Territory assemblies as also in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, this instalment of elections coming just less than three years before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has more lessons to offer to the BJP than the divided opposition. It is another matter the lesson flows from Trinamool Congress supremo Ms Mamta Banerjee’s emphatic victory over the star-studded and well-armed BJP, or inversely from the latter’s convincing defeat at her hands in West Bengal, and futile attempt at making the party’s presence felt in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
The sole lesson which the opposition has to draw from this scenario is on need to close ranks and cobble an alliance against the formidable Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine. Ms Banerjee’s stellar solo performance in checking the Modi- juggernaut has opened a window for the demoralised opposition which till now was groping in dark.
The BJP under its current dispensation for the first time in last seven years must be finding itself in some kind of hopelessness as all its plans- notwithstanding its huge resources and well-oiled organisational machinery- went awry in West Bengal. Was the party right in raising the bar to unimaginable levels in a territory with which it was not fully conversant, in desperation to capture new areas? Did its poll strategists falter in reading the minds of the Bengali Bhadralok in terms of their cultural ethos and enforcing their own brand of culture?
In the context of Indian politics, traditionally political leaders have a habit of setting lofty goals and making tall claims to psychologically capture the voters mind before he or she went to cast the vote. This phenomenon has been over-magnified by BJP strategists since the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in a two-pronged strategy. Firstly, to capture the imagination of the influential electronic/social media, secondly, in turn provide a large canvass to Mr Modi to create a larger than life image and accordingly convincingly set lofty goals. The hope so generated among the people helped establishing an image of infallibility and as someone who can achieve the impossible even.
The outcome of West Bengal elections where Ms Banerjee’s solo run has blown off many such myths, and BJP’s failure to sell the same model, based on making lofty promises and setting their own cultural-religious agenda that ran against the local cultural/political ethos, should force the party into reinventing its strategy. It’s strategists would feel the necessity to do so as in losing elections in West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu the BJP has lost an opportunity to find new avenues of victory ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections to compensate for any likely loss in the states where it has already reached a plateau of a saturation stage.
The pressure would be two fold on them to re-strategise and in more realistic terms in view of the chances of a strong anti-incumbency that the party might have to face due to the policy paralysis in handling the serious situation created by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant economic crisis. Aggressive posturing and making tall promises, as is the wont, might not serve the purpose anymore without an overall change in thinking and strategy which should be more on realistic footing. This strategy worked effectively till now on the basis of hope generated by the then new leadership when it made advent on the national scene and poor counter-strategy by the then Government at the Centre and the ruling party Congress to counter it.
Since then the situation has undergone a drastic change and the developments particularly in West Bengal have further added to the situation and given rise to new possibilities. No government or the ruling party can totally fulfil the promises made by it from time to time particularly during elections and the Narendra Modi government is no exception. What matters the most is the critical balance between the promises made and actual delivery on ground. An imbalance, as is the feeling currently, between the two would logically lead to distrust among the particular party’s public support base.
No doubt that the brand Modi if not as strong as in 2014 or later, is still worth the value with his large following still clinging to hope. Despite economic crisis persistently staring the country, and the overall pandemic situation, the brand Modi is still identifiable with hope and trust. These factors might come at a premium in the face of the party’s refusal to relook into the strategy post the West Bengal election defeat and Kerala and Tamil Nadu voters’ persistent refusal to give the BJP and its policies a chance.
During the last seven years a combative BJP under the leadership of Mr Modi has moved from strength to strength. Every electoral victory has led to hardening of stance, more aggressive policies and lessening flexibility strengthened by a unitary approach both in the government as well in the party’s organisational set up. Most of the controversies that have arisen, be it the Centre-states, or the government and the opposition parties, are primarily due to ‘Ekla Chalo’ policy of the Modi government and the ruling party.
The net result is that even in the midst of a serious life threatening COVID-19 pandemic, rather seen as a single block, the ruling party (read the government) and the opposition parties are a divided lot. As never seen before every communiqué from the opposition parties or leaders to the government offering suggestions is treated with disdain rather than acting in a sense of acknowledgement.
The Centre’s decision to accord ‘X’ category VIP security cover to all its 77 newly elected MLAs in West Bengal in view of the alleged violence against the party leaders and workers in the state, is not only unprecedented but it also shows that the formidable ruling party was on a weak wicket. The security cover is to be provided to them by the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF). Under the ‘X’ category cover, three to five armed commandoes will protect each MLA wherever they travel in the state.
Although it is condemnable but political violence had always been at the centre-stage of West Bengal politics. Unfortunately, all the main political parties in the state have taken the assistance of political violence from time to time. But never was an entire set of legislators provided security cover such as this. There is no insurgency or terrorism like situation in the state to protect the political leaders at the cost of public exchequer as was in Punjab or Jammu and Kashmir at one point of time.
Why this unprecedented step?
Somewhere this move has been borne out of the fear in the BJP strategists’ mind that the party’s failed attempt at gaining power and the arch rival Ms Banerjee emerging more powerful than ever before might make it difficult for them to keep their flock together. So, round the clock surveillance on the MLAs?
Given the fact that the pressure is on the BJP both due to electoral defeat in West Bengal, and the fallout of COVID-19 pandemic that has resulted in the party leaders and cadres becoming restive in view of the growing public pressure, there is all the more need for changing the strategy- certainly from aggressive self and justifying everything to adopting an all inclusive approach to combat the challenges.
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