Harihar Swarup
As India rings in the year 2015 and bids good bye to 2014, it will be apt to look at Modi Government’s performance of last seven months and what stars foretell for the Prime Minister and the BJP in the New Year? The year gone-by could not have been better for Modi and his party. The month of May was momentous when after long years, BJP secured a majority in Lok Sabha election and formed its Government after a decade of Congress led UPA rule. Success came one after another; the BJP ousted the Congress and formed its Government in Haryana and also, at the same time, wrested Maharashtra. The State is now run by a shaky BJP-Shiv Sena coalition. However, capturing a state like Maharashtra is a big achievement for the BJP.
The last challenge to the BJP in 2014 was elections in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand. While in Jharkhand expectedly the BJP formed the Government but in J&K a tricky situation emerged with no party getting a majority. However, in the trouble-torn state, singly the BJP’s performance was spectacular, having doubled its figures from 11 to 25, sweeping Jammu region but virtually drawing a duck in the valley. Expectedly, the PDP led by Mehbooba and her father Mufti Mohammed Sayeed emerged as the single largest party getting 28, far short of a majority in 87-member house. The ruling National Conference did not face a rout as predicted but managed to get 15 seats and the Congress was stuck at 12.
In the given situation, the formation of the Government has become extremely difficult. With the hung assembly, PDP and BJP together seem most viable combination for a stable Government, though it would entail walking on razor’s edge for both parties, given their sharp ideological differences; be it on Article 370 or the abrogation of AFSPA or idea of self-rule to which the PDP is committed. On its part, the Congress too has pledged its support to the PDP but they fall short of a majority.
BJP-NC combine will just about cross the mid-way mark of 44 in 87-member House, with support of Lone (two MLAs) and four others. BJP will be the senior partner and may get its first Chief Minister in a Muslim majority state. Minister of State in PMO, Jitendra Singh is among the contenders for CM, as is Jammu face Nirmal Singh. Most of the NC legislators do not want to have any truck with the BJP. The situation in uncertain and any combination may come up. It should be noted that term of J&K assembly is six years and there is no anti-defection law in the State.
The immediate challenge to Modi dispensation in the new year is elections in Delhi. Of course, BJP is the main contender, followed by Arvind Kejriwal and the Congress, which claims it has done lot of development working during its 15-year-long rule. One wonders if Sheila Dixit, who ruled Delhi for 15 years, will lead the Congress or someone else will replace her. Judging by a series of electoral successes, the BJP may bag Delhi too if Modi wave works.
Having consolidated its position politically, the Modi government in the new year will focus on economic issues. The first full budget of the BJP-led Government will give the indication as to how PM proposes to deal with economic issues.
As we come to the close of 2014, there are enormous expectations building up about what the New Year will bring. The new Government led by Narendra Modi has been in office for just over seven months, and it has certainly made the right noises about many issues. It was voted to power because it promised change from the lethargy and pessimism that had come to characterize the last few years of the Manmohan Singh-led Government.
There was a general feeling that things needed to move forward and decisive action had to be taken in a host of areas, if India was to take its rightful place in the world. Most people are hoping that they will see the decisive action in 2015, now that the Government has settled down, and has had time to study the problems that are holding India back.
Since coming to power, the Prime Minister has shown that he is not afraid to think of big ideas – witness his Make in India programme. But there are a number of other areas where equally big ideas and radical thinking is needed. The entire education system needs to be overhauled – not just tinkered with – if we want to ensure that the youth who will join the workplace in the next 20 years are actually employable in any industry.
The Make in India programme will be a non-starter unless serious thought is given to quality improvement and making it the cornerstone of all our manufacturing and service initiatives. Health care needs to be thoroughly revamped if our workers are to remain productive. Urbanisation needs some serious rethinking if we want to avoid a few big cities becoming nightmares. And agriculture needs fresh ideas to break out of the straightjacket it finds itself in.
Of course, big ideas and new thinking are not the only things necessary to correct the wrongs of the past. Detailing, implementation and execution of those ideas will be the key difference between success and failure.
In the past, many of the country’s leaders have stumbled because they could not bridge the gap between good intentions and actual action on the ground. This Prime Minister, probably more than any of his predecessors, has a real chance to turn things around. He has won a historic mandate, he has shown his ability to think out of the box, and most important, he has a well-deserved reputation for efficient administration. That is why all eyes will be on his decisions and actions in 2015. (IPA Service)
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