Brij Bhardwaj
All are preparing for elections in 2024 for the Lok Sabha, but before that elections for nine State Assemblies will be held, which will indicate the mood of voters. Trend for State assembly elections and for Lok Sabha may not be the same, as different considerations influence voters in polls for State Assembly and Lok Sabha. So far BJP stands alone to get a mandate to govern the country, while Opposition parties are talking about need for unity but are still groping to find a common leader who could challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
BJP however, is not taking any chances and has declared that it was prepared to challenge united Opposition and get a mandate by polling over fifty percent vote to govern the country. If this happens it will be a record as no political party has ever secured fifty per cent vote in any election after independence. Most of the political parties have secured a majority in Lok Sabha by getting thirty to forty per cent vote share. The advantage for BJP is that there may be talk of uniting Opposition parties but it is not easy to bring it about.
For instance, there are at least half a dozen leaders in Opposition who have ambition or made a claim to lead the opposition against BJP in an electoral fight. They include Rahul Gandhi of Congress Party, Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar; West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee; Telengana Chief Minister K.Chandrashekhar Rao; and Aam Aadmi Party convenor Arvind Kejriwal to name the few. In recent times Rahul Gandhi’s claim for top post got a fresh boost after he completed a large part of his Bharat Joro Yatra. He also got endorsement from leaders like Sharad Pawar of NCP and some regional leaders.
But a lot will depend on the outcome of State elections. Unless Congress Party is able to make good showing in direct fight with BJP in State Assembly elections in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, no one will take them seriously or their claim to lead the Opposition in fight against the BJP. The elections for three State Assemblies of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are important, though many States in North East will also hold elections at the same time.
In Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, BJP is in power while in Rajasthan Congress is in power. General trend in Rajasthan is that every five years a new party wins the polls. Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka also have witnessed close contest. In these two Sates Congress Government was formed initially but lost power because of defections putting BJP in driving seat. So contests in these states will be watched carefully by political observers.
At present the chances of BJP and Mr Narendra Modi of getting another term at Centre are rated high as the prospects of Opposition unity are rather dim and no single party is getting even close to securing enough seats in Lok Sabha to make a claim for power. The main reason is the dominance of BJP in U.P., which sends eighty members to Lok Sabha and its ability to win seats in all States in India.
Congress which has become a shadow of its former self will have to struggle to win enough seats to be recognised as main Opposition party. Its weakness is that it got only one seat in U. P and in many States like West Bengal and others it has no representation. Unless it wins few seats and comes to power in some States, its hopes of coming back to power at Centre will remain a dream. As such it looks like another term for BJP in 2024 as unity of Opposition is very unlikely.
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