Analysing the Trajectory of the Indo-US Strategic Partnership

Vedika Rekhi
The fundamentals of the bilateral relationship between India and US are based on strong bipartisan consensus. As Biden’s Secretary of State, Antony Blinken hasmade significantly clear, “India will be very high priority for the new administration”, New Delhi can be assured of the continuing,deepening and strengthening ties with the US. Biden, the current US President has always been bullish about the Indo-US ties and even as the head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he in 2006, expressed hope that the Indo-US ties will be extremely strengthened by 2020.
As stated by Ambassador Lalit Mansingh, for a strategic partnership to blossom three factors are extremely significant: long-term vision, volume of exchange and defenceand security understanding. The Indo-US relationship goes beyond mere friendly gestures. It is based on broad variables and convergence of interests like shared democratic values, economic ties, the growing threat of the Dragon and its belligerent activities, counter-terrorism,defence and security, education, cyber-security and space technology, civil and nuclear energy, ecology etc, thus making it multi-sectoral. It has grown with success and aims towards mutual progress and Washington and Delhi are developing a relationship that extends way beyond the diplomatic Beltway and the Raisina Hill strategic partnership.
India’s Prime Minister Modi rightly pointed out that this relationship has overcome the “hesitations of history” and there is an ever- growing conjunction between these two democracies who are backed by the strength of shared values and engagements between people and institutions that have remarkably and steadfastly engaged democratic practices in an increasingly uncertain global political and economic landscape. As the US and India seek to enhance partnership, there have been important geopolitical lessons that can be gauged from the recent developments in the relationship; from positive momentum between the leaders of the states, important visits by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and climate envoy John Kerry to India during the administration’s first 100 days, positive developments on addressing climate change outlined by the “India-U.S. Climate and Clean Energy Agenda 2030 Partnership” to the USA’s initial, somewhat sour and delayed response to India’s spiralling COVID-19 second wave to its eventual robust and forthcoming assistance, wherein it is diverting its own order for vaccine raw materials to India and sending more than $100 million worth of medical supplies. Significantly, Ms Kamala Harris who is the first Indian-American and African-American to be elected as the Vice President of the United States is a true representative of the American multiculturalism and is expected to be the trailblazer for the betterment of the Indo-US ties. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris released a video on August 15, 2020 to commemorate the Indian Independence Day and promised to “confront the threats that New Delhi faces in its own region and along the border”.
While it should be noted that the robust strategic partnership is mostly based on the threat that China poses, given the fact that under Xi Jinping’s leadership, the Dragon has become extremely authoritarian at home and aggressive abroad. As the Sino-Indian relations plummet further, given the Chinese stealth encroachments in the Indian territory and their economic hostilities, New Delhi hopes that the Biden administration will be able to cobble together an alliance to tackle the threat posed by China in the region as well as globally. The Quad members are working together in order to counter the rogue state and its exploitation and corruption in the South China Sea, South Asian region as well as the Indo-Pacific. India is certainly a valuable, democratic ally for the US, committed to thwarting China’s intensifying efforts to dominate the South Asian region and establishing its hegemony in the world. As pointed out by India scholar Ashley Tellis, Mr. Modi’s “daring decision to collaborate wholeheartedly” with America is a pointer to the fact that he recognises that “the U.S. holds the most important keys for India’s long-term success. “The US, at its end, hopes that such an arrangement will facilitate its aim of offsetting the Chinese influence in South-East Asia, South Asia, Africa and Central Asia while also emerging victorious against the ever burgeoning Chinese hegemonic designs. In such a scenario, the US will not have to exhaust all its resources trying to balance a coalition against China. Moreover, Pakistan’s increasingly pro-Chinese policies have also brought the two into a closer embrace. This will be a great symbiotic relationship.
Unlike the Cold War era, the present relationship that the two share is no longer based on the patron-client system wherein the US acted as the hub and its allies as the weaker pawns. Presently, the US has helped New Delhi by providing it with satellite maps, protective gear and geospatial data in its stand-off with China and the defence ties between the two have improved. There are ever-increasing geostrategic ties among these two and both look towards the development of an organic partnership based along the lines of shared security and geopolitical goals. The fact that Washington is also keen on spending diplomatic capital and enhancing security engagement shows the maturity of this relationship. The legitimisation of India’s nuclear arsenal, USA’s supplies of arms and ammunition and aerospace and aviation intelligence, apart from the economic opportunities have been important pointers to the bettering relationship.The countries have signed an agreement that allow them to share encrypted military intelligence and also signed the LogisticsExchange memorandum of agreement that permits their military to replenish fuel and material from each other’s bases.
However, while the strategic engagement between the two has been increasing, there have been some long-standing differences and uncertainties pervading the relationship.In 2019,US scrapped duty- free access for India under the Generalised System of Preference. Also, due to the COVID uncertainties, P.M. Modi emphasized on the idea of Aatmanirbhar Bharatwhich the US deems as protectionist. Moreover, 60% of the defence inventory for India is Russian which greatly complicates the relationship that New Delhi shares with Washington. The latter has also warned India that it could face sanctions and that the Indian Air Force is unlikely to get a waiver over USA’s ‘Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act’ (CAATSA) for acquiring five Russian Almaz-Antei S-400 Triumf self-propelled surface-to-air (SAM) systems for $5.5 billion. Additionally, an anticipated trade deal failed to take shape and these factors led to the alarm bells ringing for this partnership. Besides, New Delhi has to also keenly look at Biden’s Pakistan policy, which is still in the nascent stage and full of uncertainties and given the China-Pakistan axis, any shift in the American policy positively towards Beijing and Islamabad might embolden the adversaries to up their ante against India. So, while the overall contours of the relationship will continue to grow on positive lines, the new administration is yet to reveal its China policy which might be comparatively lenient given the Democrat leader’s interest in toning down the tensions between Beijing and Washington.
Given the pandemic, Washington will definitely prioritise the domestic issues first, and thus, New Delhi has to remain open to whatever is in store and act in a manner while it tries to garner the larger strategic goals and approaches that the Biden presidency seeks to take recourse to and how it is going to align with India’s strategic interests and thus, propel the trajectory of the Indo-US relationship in a direction that is mutually beneficial. All in all, thus, given the uncertainties, New Delhi has to tread cautiously in order to not open the Pandora’s box.
(The author currently works as a Geopolitical Media Analyst.)
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