Rekha Chowdhary
The recent Parliamentary election that took place for five Lok Sabha constituencies in J&K was one of the most competitive one. Every constituency saw intense competition. A number of high profile candidates were in the fray including Dr. Jitendra Singh, Omar Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, Sajad Lone. Apart from the two national parties – BJP and Congress, many regional parties were competing. These included the NC, the PDP, the People’s Conference, the Apni Party and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DPAP. Over all there were a large number of candidates for each constituency. Udhampur had the smallest number of candidates – 12. There were 20 candidates in Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, 22 candidates each in Jammu and Baramulla constituencies and 24 candidates in Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency. Of these candidates, the largest number was that of Independent candidates. In all there were 57 Independent candidates in fray for five Lok Sabha constituencies. Besides the parties mentioned above, there were many other smaller parties in the fray. These included Panthers Party (Bhim) which contested in all the five constituencies, Jammu and Kashmir Nationalist People’s Front which contested in Jammu, Anantnag and Baramulla, BSP which contested in Udhampur and Jammu constituencies, Ekam Bharat Sanatan Dal which contested in Udhampur and Jammu constituencies, All India Forward Bloc which contested Jammu and Anantnag constituencies, National Lok Tantrik Party that contested in Anantnag and Srinagar constituencies. Among other parties that fielded their candidates in one of the constituencies included National Awami United Party (Jammu), Hindustan Shakti Sena (Jammu), Garib Democratic Party (Anantnag), National Youth Party (Baramulla), Rashtriya Jankranti Party (Baramulla), Gana Surksha Party (Sromagar), Bharat Jodo Party (Srinagar). (As we will see below, most of these parties as well as Independents fared very poorly. The only exception being Independent candidate in Baramulla who not only won the election with massive lead but gave humiliating defeat to Omar Abdullah)
After a very intensified campaigning process, the election results were on expected lines, but also with a few surprises. While BJP got victory on two seats of Jammu and Udhampur, NC won two seats of Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri and the fifth seat of Baramulla, as stated above went to Independent candidate.
BJP maintained its hold in Jammu region, winning both the Udhampur and Jammu Parliamentary seats. While in Udhampur Dr. Jitendra Singh won the election polling 5,71,076 (51.28%) votes, in Jammu constituency, Jugal Kishore won polling 6,87,588 (52%) votes. In both the seats, it was spectacular winning spree for the third time both for the Dr Jitendra Singh and Jugal Kishore as well as for the BJP. . However, in both the seats, the margin of victory was reduced as compared to the 2019 election. In that election, Dr. Jitendra Singh, for instance had polled almost double the votes as compared to the votes polled by the runner up – Vikramaditya, the candidate representing the Congress party. With a lead of more than 3.5 lakh votes, Dr. Singh had registered an impressive victory. In the present election, however, the margin of victory for him was quite reduced. He got a lead of 1,24,373 votes. Chowdhary Lal Singh representing Congress, could also poll 4,46,703 votes and get a share of 40.11% of the total votes polled. Similar was the situation in Jammu Parliamentary constituency also. Here Jugal Kishore had defeated Raman Bhalla of Congress in 2019 by around 3 lakh votes. This time however, Jugal Kishore defeated Raman Bhalla by 1,35,498 votes. Bhalla by polling 5,52,090 votes could get 42.4% share of the total votes polled in this constituency.
Given its past record of poor showing in last few elections, especially the 2014 Assembly election and 2019 Parliamentary elections, Congress seems to have given a tough fight in both the constituencies. What however helped the party was the fact that it turned out to be a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. Though NC and PDP don’t have much space in the region, yet it helped the Congress that it was supported by both the parties under the auspices of INDIA bloc. While these parties did not field any candidate against the Congress, NC also campaigned vigorously in favour of the Congress candidates.
In the context in which the party has been facing a decline in the region since 2009 and almost has been crisis-ridden since Ghulam Nabi Azad, its national face, left the party – this election is very crucial for the Congress party. Despite the defeat of the party in both the seats, its performance in both the Parliamentary constituencies is going to go a long way in rejuvenating the party.
The nature of competition in Kashmir region, however, was quite different. The election here was quite competitive with more than two parties in the fray. INDIA bloc failed here as NC and PDP both the key members of the bloc could not have a seat arrangement and ultimately faced each other in each of the three constituencies here – Baramulla, Srinagar and Anantnag constituency. These two parties were challenged by People’s Conference-Apni Party Alliance candidates in each constituency. In the end, of all the parties, it was the National Conference alone that could make a mark by winning two of the three constituencies. While in Srinagar, its candidate Aga Syed Ruhulla Mehdi won the election polling 3,56,866 votes (53.85%) and in Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, its candidate Mian Altaf Ahmed registered his victory polling 5,21,836 votes (50.85%). The victory margin in case of Mian Altaf was that of 2,81,794 and that of Ruhulla was 1.88.416 votes.
The claim of dominance of the NC in Kashmir region, however, faced a severe blow with the embarrassing defeat of Omar Abdullah in Baramulla constituency. Polling 2,68,339 votes (25.95%), he was defeated by Independent candidate Engineer Rashid who polled 4,72,481 votes (45.7%). Rashid who is at present in Tihar jail facing charges of terror funding was Independent candidate. His victory in the election, has posed difficult questions not only for the NC but for all the mainstream parties of Kashmir.
However, despite its defeat against the Independent candidate, NC managed to claim its pre-eminence in two seats, the situation was not so good for PDP. This party was the runner up in both the constituencies where NC registered its victory. Mehbooba Mufti who was herself in the field facing Mian Altaf could poll less than half the votes polled by him. As against 50.85% of the total votes polled by him, Mehbooba polled only 23.39% of the total votes. In Srinagar also, the PDP candidate Waheed ur Para could poll less than half of the votes polled by the NC candidate. Thus while Rahulla polled 52.85% of the total votes polled, Para polled only 24.95%. PDP’s debacle could be seen in Baramulla constituency where it not only polled 2.66% of the total votes polled but it was placed in the fourth position and trailed the winning candidate, NC candidate and the PC candidate.
PDP’s poor performance was a result of the beating that the party has taken during the last few years when most of its senior leaders left the party to join other parties. Utterly fragile and reduced in strength, this party entered the electoral arena knowing very well its adverse situation. The Parliamentary election for it was not merely to test its political ground but also to keep itself in the game and to keep the morale of its cadre high. By getting placed as runner up in two constituencies, it might now see itself as a challenger to the NC in the next Assembly election. However, its position of equivalence (to NC) if not dominance that the PDP enjoyed in Kashmir till 2014, seems to have been lost, at least for some time till the party recovers.
Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference that had led a very aggressive campaign against the NC and PDP and declared itself to be the most popular party in northern Kashmir, failed to come up to its own expectations. Sajad Lone who personally contested in Baramulla seat, could barely save his security deposit. His share of votes was merely 16.76% (1,73,239 votes) and was placed at third place after the winning candidate and Omar Abdullah. This was so even while the PC had entered into an alliance with the Apni Party and got its support.
The performance of the Apni party, the newly found party of Kashmir was also quite poor. Even though it had entered into alliance with PC, it could not save its security in both the constituencies where it contested. While it merely polled 9.77% votes in Srinagar, its vote share in Anantnag was 13.85%. In Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, it had fielded a Pahari candidate and it was expected to get the support of Paharis. It also had the declared support of PC and BJP. With BJP not contesting itself here, it was expected that the BJP votes would be transferred to this party. However, in the end, it was no where in the reckoning. It could not validate its claim of being more popular than NC and PDP.
The worst performance in this election was that of Azad led DPAP. It could not make a mark in any of the constituencies where it contested. Its best performance was in Udhampur constituency where its candidate Ghulam Mohammad Saroori was contesting as independent candidate. But even here he could score only 3.56% of the total votes polled. In Anantnag, candidate belonging to this party polled 2.49% votes and the Srinagar candidate could poll only 2.24% votes.
One of the interesting feature of the election was the NOTA votes. Udhampur constituency had the largest number of NOTA votes – 12,938. This in itself formed around 1.16% of the total votes polled In fact, the NOTA votes were much higher in this constituency as compared to the votes of 9 of the 12 candidates who were contesting here. Srinagar constituency also had around one percent (0.89%) NOTA votes. While Jammu constituency had the least number of NOTA votes (0.38%), Baramulla had 0.48% NOTA votes and Anantnag has 0.61% NOTA votes.
What would be the impact of the Parliamentary election on the Legislative Assembly election?
Keeping in view the intense mobilisation during this election, one can expect that the Assembly election is going to be quite competitive and interesting. One thing that has been made clear by this election is that there is no one party that can claim to have its influence all over the state. The support base of the parties is divided on the regional basis. While BJP and Congress have their major field of action in Jammu region, the NC and PDP, as well as the PC, Apni Party has their base mainly in Kashmir region. In this context of region-specific influence of the parties, while it is BJP that has emerged as the most dominant party in Jammu region, in Kashmir it is the National Conference.
While these two parties would certainly be quite combative during the Assembly election, one can see Congress in Jammu region and PDP in Kashmir region also giving a fight. Enthused by its increased voter share during the Parliamentary election, Congress will certainly enter the Assembly election with greater vigour. PDP though could not perform so well, but it will try to keep itself afloat, at least in South Kashmir. Assembly election for PDP, in fact will be very crucial as it will make or mar its political future.
People’s Conference’s ambition to expand itself beyond its sphere of influence in North Kashmir and give a challenge to NC, has fallen flat in the Parliamentary election so this party will continue to be a player in that area only. The Apni Party which has been making big claims about its strength and popularity in Kashmir will have to work from the scratch and not only build its cadre but also its influence among Kashmiris. For the present Kashmiris have refused to accept its claim to be the most popular party of Kashmir. Similar is the story of Azad’s party DPAP which at one point of time had emerged with a bang. It has been reduced to be a party having its sphere of influence at district level.
(Feedback welcome at rekchowdhary@gmail.com)
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