Dr. Sudershan Kumar
The inauguration of strategically located Chabahar Port by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is critically an important initiative of setting up a transit corridor facilitating access to Afghanistan via Iran bypassing Pakistan. This port is located in Iran’s south eastern Sistan – Baluchistan province at a distance of around 80 kms from Gwadar port of Pakistan which is still under construction with Chinese support. India can see it as it’s strategic response to China’s combative pursuit of the Belt and Road initiative.This Chabahar port has strategic importance by virtue of having Air Force and Naval bases of Iranian armed forces besides also having an International Airport.
Furthermore, India seeing it’s future prospects, had committed financial assistance of 550 million US dollars for the development of port, construction of road and rail network. Out of that around 340 million US dollars have been spent in first phase for the development of Port. Its cargo handling capacity has increased from 2.5 million tones to 8.5 million tones. All these developments are the sequel of the trilateral community pact signed between India, Afghanistan and Iran around one year back.
This historic trilateral pact has opened alternative trading route to the world market for the land locked Afghanistan and is significant to both India and Iran as well. It can be called an apt reciprocation to Pakistan which had restricted India- Afghanistan trade by not honouring the terms of previous land route agreements. This new route originates from Indian ports to Chabahar port of Iran via sea and then covers a road distance of around 1800 kms via Zahedan(Iran), Zarong (Afghanistan) and terminates at Delaram(Afghanistan). As per trilateral agreement India will also built 1.6 billion US dollar rail line between Chabahar port to Zahedan in Iran which will provide access to Northern Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.
The signing of this pact by these three nations sends strong communique to the world that “Geography is not destiny and with strong will and desire the Geography can be changed”. Significantly, INSTC is another ambitious multi mode transportation route established in year 2000 by India, Iran and Russia(I2R) to promote transportation. It is to connect Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf to Caspian Sea through Iran and then onward to St. Petersburg and Northern Europe through Russia.
All these endeavours by India are the consequence of the acknowledgement of imminent and eventual benefits by them. It is worthwhile to mention here that trade between India and Afghanistan had been going on since two millenniums. This trade route followed was widely known as the Grant Trunk Road. Originating from Chittagong (Now in Bangladesh) then across northern India, it passed through Delhi and Amritsar, entered into Lahore, Peshwar in Pakistan and finally culminated at Kabul in Afghanistan.
This road prevailed during the reign of Chander Gupta Maruya and was further renovated during Sher Shah Suri’s period thus came to be known as the Sher Shah Suri Marg. Britishers further upgraded it during the period between 1836 to 1860. Since then this road was the traditional link for trade between India and Afghanistan till partition of undivided India and emergence of Pakistan as a new nation happened. Pakistan which has always considered India as its’s existential threat ceased this route and not only denied entry of Indian traders to Afghanistan but also vice versa.
Therefore I2A corridor is considered as a response to this and also as a substitute to CPEC which is connecting Kashgar (Xinjiang province of China) to Gwadar port of Pakistan. Moreoevr, CPEC which is mostly funded by Chinese banks is seen to have intangible and indirect effects on India politically and economically. This can be elucidated by the facts that that the revenue generated from Gwadar port of Pakistan will be shared in the ratio of 91:9 i.e. 91% revenue will be taken by China and Pakistan will have to be contented only with 9% share.
Also as per the agreement Gwadar Port will be taken on lease by Chinese for forty years. Pakistan will have to return back 90 billion US dollars during a span of 30 years.
Further Pak Government will not levy any excise duty on Chinese goods exported to Middle East countries and also on raw materials imported from third world countries to China. Ironically Pakistani businessmen will have to pay the duty for export/import of goods.
A well acquainted fact carrying immense implications that China has also set up the infrastructure in neighbouring countries viz Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh by providing loan to these countries and also spreading its wing in Nepal and Maldives can have repercussions. The takeover of Sri Lankan Port Hambantota for 99 years lease is a glaring example of Chinese expansionists and colonel designs.
Dragon’s presence in Sri Lanka’s deep sea port Hambantota has also set the alarming bells ringing to Indian security agencies, which cannot be kept in oblivion. It is quite obvious that Chinese will make use of this port in the event of conflict or Dokalam like situations in future as pressure tactics on India. In fact, initially Sri Lankan’s were keen for development of this port through India.
The then Government at the centre did not show much interest may be succumbing under pressure from one of it’s coalition partner. As a result the gap was instantly filled up Chinese’s Government by offering them loan through Chinese banks.
Similarly Chinese have been alluring small countries for participation in their most ambitious one belt one road project. They will create infrastructure in these countries as per their own requirement by extending loan to them on their own terms and conditions as has been done in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and many other countries.
Hence these nations are required to be vigilant and vary of the malicious and heinous intentions of the Chinese. On the contrary India’s approach for establishment of infrastructure is quite transparent and need oriented. Even for the development of Chabahar Port of Iran, the contracts were executed by revolutionary guard affiliated company Khadam at-Anibia, the largest Iranian contractor of Government for construction of projects.
For India the investment for development of chabahar port is important because it will provide alternate route to land locked countries and will also open a route to Eastern and Northern Europe. This will save 40% of time and 30% of cost. This will also provide hindrance free trade between India and Central Asia. Till date for India and China, the inflow of goods to Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan is full of challenges.
”In 2001 Chinese exported around one billion dollars goods to central Asia where as India could export only 100 million US dollars goods to these countries. But by 2015 Chinese exports increased manifold and touched up to 15 billion US dollars whereas India could enhance it only up to 1 billion US dollars.
Therefore, the author is of the view that it is high time that Government of India must ensure that India positions itself as a player amidst land corridor mania, that has gripped the main land Asia, to share its claim not only as a global regional economic power but also to look forward for strategic partnership in South Asia especially Afghanistan.
It should also evolve a road map under Make In India programme for creation of manufacturing hubs in the country so that the export to third world countries is increased manifold.
Therefore, efforts must be made to link I2A corridor with that of INSTC, which will provide an answer not only of CPEC but for one of most ambitious project OBOR of China and will also be an alternative to predatory finance model of China which swallows the sovereignty of participating countries in present form.
(The author is former Director General DRDO & Special Secretary MOD GoI)
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