Amit Kushari (IAS Retd)
People of India are frustrated now to see that parliament is not being allowed to function because of the acute rivalry between the ruling NDA and the opposition. It is not necessary that the ruling party will always have a majority in both houses of parliament. Today NDA has a majority in Lok Sabha but it doesn’t have it in the Rajya Sabha. The opposition has a majority in the Rajya Sabha. Our constitution is such that bills cannot be passed unless it is cleared in both the houses. Our constitution makers gave these powers to the Rajya Sabha because India is a very diverse country and the voices of the different state assemblies should be heard effectively in the Rajya Sabha while all India laws are being enacted. Many in India are now wondering whether this is a right thing to do—since the elected government is not being allowed to function by the Rajya Sabha due to intense political rivalry between the two camps, NDA and UPA. Before 2014, when UPA had a majority in the Lok Sabha, parliament was repeatedly disrupted by the NDA protesting against the corrupt practises of the UPA, and now since the tables are reversed, UPA is paying back the NDA in the same coin. This tit for tat revengeful policy is not helping the country as all the economic reforms needed for the progress of India have come to a halt. This vicious cycle will not end soon. With the passage of time, NDA may attain near majority in Rajya Sabha by 2018 but by that time the Lok Sabha elections will be too close and in 2019 the tables may be turned once again. NDA may have majority in Rajya Sabha but will lose majority in Lok Sabha.
The problem with our political leaders is that while in power, they are surrounded by sycophants who sing their praises and don’t let the leaders know as to how unpopular they are becoming in the field because of their anti people policies. The leaders feel that they will be in power for all times to come and that the treasury which they control today will not fall into the hands of their opponents tomorrow. When Mr Chidambaram was trying to improve the financial health of the country by increasing taxes on the people, did he realise that he was actually cutting the legs of his own party? If you squeeze the pockets of the citizens by imposing taxes and withdrawing subsidies the voters are going to hit back very hard. All development activities have to be managed by the Government somehow by raising resources from other sources without touching the pockets of the voters. The moment you touch their pockets, they will be your enemies and will never vote for you. Shri Arun Jaitly should also remember this hard fact. Although the Prime Minister is trying very hard to improve India’s image and is trying to increase investment in India so that unemployment could be reduced and prosperity enhanced, people will appreciate it only if no taxes are imposed and will be very happy if taxes are reduced. If a rapid growth is targeted, painful procedures will have to be adopted and the people will immediately throw out that Government. If a doctor tells you that he will cure you in a short time through very painful surgeries and procedures and if the patient has any option, he will immediately change the doctor and opt for a more mild doctor who cures you only through tablets and painless injections although he may take a little bit more time. When the Pandavas were taking advice from Bhisham Pitamah (a grand fatherly patriarch of the Hindus) and Yudhisthir asked him as to how an ideal king should be, he was told that an ideal king never touches the pockets of the citizens and the king who does it will be surely over thrown. When Bhisham Pitamah gave this advice, there was no democracy and the citizens were far more helpless compared to modern times. Bhisham’s advice is more applicable today than it was earlier. When the PM speaks of Swach Bharat or ‘berozgari mukth’ Bharat people will clap, but the moment Swach Bharat tax and service tax are imposed, as soon as interest rates on deposits are reduced in banks, a large section of the people will not vote for NDA. In fact, in 2004 people defeated the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government surprisingly although he did a lot of development work and kept inflation under tight control. In this matter UPA and NDA should learn from parties like CPM, Trinamul Congress, Samajwadi party, JDU …. who are very populist in all their policies although the pace of development is slightly slower.
Political revenge by using the CBI against opponents is another issue which all leaders must avoid. CBI should be free from the Government. Even the Supreme Court had said that the CBI should not be a caged parrot. Before 2014 it was quite apparent that Congress would lose hopelessly but our Congress leaders could not foresee this simple truth. We could see clearly that unless made free, CBI would fall into the hands of the BJP,but UPA Government failed to see this and did not make CBI free and now naturally they are suffering. The NDA will also suffer similarly if they fail to unshackle the CBI by 2018 because in 2019 CBI is likely to fall in the hands of leaders like Mulayam Singh, Nitish Kumar, Mamata Bannerji or Rahul Gandhi. God knows whether it will fall into the hands of an anarchist like Arvind Kejriwal. Nothing can be ruled out. NDA is fast losing popularity because promises were not fulfilled and pockets of citizens were touched, sometimes surreptitiously. NDA may have to pay a heavy price for the surreptitious methods of the Railway Minister who appears to be an expert in enriching his treasury by harming the citizens. These back door methods, however , do not work in the long run and people will overthrow him in 2019. Just imagine that now a 6 year old child has to buy a full ticket!
If the present trend continues I doubt whether BJP will get even 200 seats in the next Lok Sabha. There wouldn’t be many allies to fall back upon. Shiv Sena would be vastly reduced and Akalis would be wiped out. Punjab could have an Aam Aadmi party Government in 2016. It is difficult to predict how many seats Congress will get but if they get less than 150, Rahul Gandhi cannot become the Prime Minister and a regional leader would have to rule the country with external support of the Congress. However, 2019 is still far away and the Modi government still has a lot of chance to retrieve the situation. Modi’s personal integrity is still high and he is still the undisputed tallest leader of India. He should announce a number of populist measures without bothering about the treasury. For coming back to power in 2019 BJP must be able to get at least 240 seats in the Lok Sabha . He could think of doing something extraordinarily popular like bringing 10,000 crores of black money from abroad, or get Dawood Ibrahim/ Hafeez Sayed, bring back POK and Aksai Chin to India, enforce uniform civil code in India.
(The author is former Financial Commissioner, J&K
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