The subject of what will be the situation in Af-Pak region following the withdrawal of US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan is hotly debated in political and academic circles ever since the US announced it would withdraw in 2014. Obviously, policy planners in concerned capitals Kabul, Islamabad and New Delhi have had enough time to make pragmatic assessment of a situation likely to unfold in that scenario. Although India is not militarily involved in the on-going conflict in the region, yet through the proxy war unleashed by Pakistan based and abetted terrorist groups, India very much figures in the security scenario. It has to be recalled that more active Theo-fascist groups in Pakistan have very openly and repeatedly said that after subduing or blunting the US, UK and the erstwhile Soviet Union, now is the turn of India. Anti-India jihad is carried out by these terrorist groups without fear of Government intervention and action. It is so because there is no Government, no law, no order, and no semblance of state authority in Pakistan. The Army rules by proxy and terrorist groups now united and called Pakistan Defence Committee/Council rules the roost. In such a situation, it is risky to profess that after the US withdrawal, Theo-fascist forces will not make attempts to fan out eastward, overrun the eastern parts of NWFP buffer and, on the prompting of TTP head towards Kashmir.
DGP J&K Ashok Prasad has exuded confidence in security preparedness of the State in meeting the challenge likely to be posed by the Taliban-Al Qaeda spill over after the US withdraws. In the first place, the US-NATO combine is supposed to have a clear plan and perception of security and military situation likely to emerge in the Af-Pak region following their withdrawal. That has direct impact on regional strategy. Secondly, India’s continued engagement in meeting the infiltration threat on her western border will hamper US’ newly formed Asia-Pacific strategy because this strategy hinges on India remaining a solid bastion of democracy and peace in the troubled sub-continent. Thirdly, the current fluid situation in Pakistan will become clearer after general elections take place and democratic process becomes sustainable. A pragmatically responsible Government in Islamabad shall have to restrain the Theo-fascist banditry. It will have to understand that India has been meeting the challenge successfully for last two decades, and that she has now gained far more tactical experience in anti-terrorist operations. We know that once disengaged from war on terror in Af-Pak region, the terrorists will certainly like to fan out. But there is no easy walk-over along our western borders. The fighting will not remain confined to the borders if our security is gravely threatened. Pakistani army needs no briefing on what that means.
The crucial point is that the people in Kashmir have gone through a period of trauma. The peace loving majority also realizes what benefits a situation of peace and order is likely to throw up. They are sensible enough not to be trapped. Even the dissident leadership in Kashmir is wary of violence and mayhem that get unleashed in a situation of chaos and disorder. Ultimately, it is the ordinary people who are put to great suffering. Kashmiris are not prepared for a repeat exercise. The DGP has rightly asserted that the leadership of over-ground Theo-fascist groups like Let, JM, HM etc. active in Kashmir, has considerably dwindled and their ranks have dried up. It is so because recruitment from Kashmir is no more forthcoming and they have to clandestinely infiltrate Punjabi militant activists into Kashmir, something fraught with enormous risk.
But having said that, we cannot remain complacent with the preventive measures we have taken to forestall infiltration from PoK into our side of the LoC. We cannot ignore that militants do strike if they get a chance and the recent shooting of two unarmed IRP jawans is the case in sight. We cannot ignore the fact that Theo-fascists in Pakistan have gained ascendency and the civilian government succumbs to their pressures and diktats. We cannot also ignore that these Pakistan-based terrorist organizations have created moles in sections of society, and among a small section of vulnerable dissidents in the State. Efforts are being made to dilute the diffidence among these sections and to bring them into the mainstream. Our nationalist chapter is presently engaged in bringing political awareness to the masses of people. And above all, the State is engaged in a massive developmental plan that is likely to change the destiny of the people of the State. We have a mega programme of rail and road connectivity, of power generation, of healthcare build up and the rest of it. The masses of people are not prepared to risk the future of their upcoming generations.
Trending Now
E-Paper
Follow our WhatsApp channel