Shaveta Sharma
As US is all set to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan by 2014; the concerns and apprehensions of many concerned countries are on the rise as this US decision is going to affect a change not only in this region but almost throughout the world. On 27th of March 2009, the US President Barack Obama revealed his ‘Af-Pak Strategy’. In all these years, US came to realize that the success of AfPak strategy would depend profoundly on its policy of handling Pakistan.
The objectives of US and India converge on Afghanistan but the policy designs of Pakistan do not converge with the former two in the Af-Pak region as US and India want to see a stable, democratic and moderate Afghanistan but Pakistan aspires for weak, pro-Pakistan political establishment for gaining strategic depth in Afghanistan. It is imperative for US to engage the military and civilian leadership of Pakistan in order to make its Af-Pak strategy a success. Given the pivotal place of Pakistan in this US policy, many scholars started suggesting renaming AAf-Pak strategy as Af-Pak strategy. The partial withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan has started showing its future repercussions for the security of India; as a rise could be noticed in the intrusion bids and terrorist plans for sabotaging the security and integrity of India. Before US decides to substantially withdraw her forces from Afghanistan, she should concentrate on the following courses:
*As US announced to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan by 2014, only 10,000 US soldiers would continue to stay there, still it needs a well-conceived and tactical implementation of this strategy. US should cautiously implement this strategy in post 2014 so as to avoid any chance of re-talibanization of Afghanistan and for that matter, the radicalization of Pakistani society.
*US should adopt Neo-Nixon approach here if it wants to get assured success in its war on terrorism in general and AfPak strategy in particular. Although US pre-dominance is inevitable in this region at present yet it would be more fruitful for US to strengthen the regional powers and allow them playing an active role to resolve the regional issues by themselves.
*Besides accelerating the development and reconstruction efforts, US should strive hard to promote and establish credible democratic structures in Afghanistan.
*It must try to take into confidence the local people of all the religious sects living in Afghanistan for penetrating deep into its social, economic and political structures as it would also help US to change its image of being an anti- Islamic country throughout the Islamic world.
*To train and strengthen the Afghanistan National Army for dealing with the insurgents and terrorist, particularly, post US withdrawal in 2014, apart from repositing more faith in her NATO allies and other like-minded countries that are also fighting against terrorism.
*Along with this, instead of exporting western experts to Afghanistan, the local civilian strata should be trained in good governance and crisis management mechanisms.
*It has to frame a more credible policy for breaking the vicious chain of narcotics, terrorists and illegal arms-trading.
*In addition, it should also protect the nuclear arsenals of Pakistan and stop the proliferation of nuclear technology and material either to states or non-state actors.
*US should promote domestic stability in economic, political, social and religious spheres in Pakistan. Real and promising democratic establishment in Pakistan must be set up in order to marginalize the influence of Islamic fundamentalists.
*All the military and non- military aid to Pakistan by US should be made conditional and accountable. The US policy regarding Pakistan should be changed from ‘carrot and stick’ to ‘harder sticks and less carrot policy’.
*The meetings of US-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral forum should be made an annual event. US should engage the political leadership of Pakistan in policy-making regarding Afghanistan.
*To promote bilateral composite dialogue between India and Pakistan, as it would be a determinant factor for establishing peace and stability in the South-Asian region.
In the end, it is to be articulated that US should follow this future course very cautiously with proficiency. US must take into consideration all the pros and cons before deciding to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan as any small miscalculation could again tend to result in Talibanization of Afghanistan as happened after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces from Afghanistan in 1989. And this time, the risk is doubled as apart from Afghanistan, Pakistan is also getting radicalized / Talibanized.
(The writer is a PhD scholar in the Department of Political Science, Jammu University)
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